Indexes now

All markets are quiet with small movements close to Wednesdays closes. FTSE has had a profit taking rally in early morning until now in Europe but now
that trend has lost steam. US indexes are trading below the falling 8 day MA with very small movements. Markets are awaiting lots of important news in US at 14:15 and 14:30.Most important is GDP first quarter and personal consumption. This could be a market mover up or down.

Today's close will give a definite answer to FTSE, new bear market or not but it already seems 100 % sure that my downgrading to bear market will stand.

Will follow markets around news time and see if any important movements are under way and report if that is the case. Otherwise I will publish during Friday and in the weekend an outlook for next week and maybe for the whole month of June.

Europe Fears Bailout of Spain Would Strain Its Resources


DOW, FTSE .Intervention seems to be over. Indexes continues down trend as anticipated. Seems like 2 hr trends will get a five way downside move which indicates that the 6 day rally really is over.

Europe indexes rallied as I said with the DOW intervention and now five minute charts are working to get an uptred. Hardest hit was FTSE short traders.

DOW intervention started at the 13:00 news and took three minutes. There could be more to come so do not get in now.

DOW and SP500 now. Watch up and read this.

Both indexes have the one hour trend down. The important 2 hour trend will turn down today unless a sharp short covering rally which often happens in US when the indexes have been pushed down in Asia and Europe. DOW closed Tuesday at 12.579 and is now trading 12.495. The big traders use to push Dow on upside to take out all short positions taken during trading in Asia and Europe. At the top of that rally the big traders go short themselves and slowly let the index fall so they are the only traders with short positions. Since we might not get a 8, 21 MA 2 hour cross on downside within the next four hours which will stop a too high intervention, but just a steeper 8 MA down I think the trend will continue down. Smart traders in Europe know this and they are also waiting for a rally to short DOW and SP500 which always follows DOW in situations like this.

The timing for an intervention like this use to come after news from the US. It does not matter what kind of small news it is, it is only a way to try to hide the intervention. Today there are very small news at CET 13:00 and 16:00.

An intervention rally often gets above the top that means 12.600 area to scare the short position holders until they give in. All open stock markets in the world will also rally when DOW does it so short positions will be slaughtered everywhere. Watch up. An intervention like this happened at CET 16:00 yesterday with a rally up to a new high at 12.612 which fell back to 12.533 and closed 18:00 at the bottom. That means that one intervention group already are short and will defend their positions. But often there are stronger groups waiting to do the same.

So watch up.

Italy SPMIB.I has taken new monthly low at 12.776. The 2009 low was 12.317.2.

STOXX50E.I, European blue chip index downgraded to bear market by me now

FTSE now falling quite steep now at 5.307. The correction up seems to be over and 5.227 could be the target within this week

Santander, Europes biggest bank, Spain close to a 12 year low which is at 3.940. Now trading 4.278

All indexes moving down after Europe opening. India now in trouble

FTSE  2 hr trend is down. DAX is locked in small daily range now. DOW and SP500 moving sideways to down. Euro is taking new low. Oil is down close to new low. Gold has turned down and might soon be critical.

Not very encouraging news. There is a possibility that the 6 day uptrend for European indexes will be over or might have reached the rally top.

Europe growth is down, so is China, India. Japan, South America and US moves sideways but without any strength. Dollar up and bonds are holding up like Germany bonds.

It is a depressing picture of the world economy and I can not see any reason to hold money in the stock markets for investing.  Day trading and short traders will earn money from now on. There are no big news in the pipeline that could change this beginning to a world recession and this recession could be real ugly during this year. I am still awaiting tomorrows monthly close in the markets to mathematically verify for myself if I am correct in what I now say.

Roubini says the stock markets will fall next year. I say the selling has already started.

India’s Economy Slows, With Global Implications


Euro Isn’t Loved, but Few Want to Drop It, Poll Says

DOW and SP500 strongly up to test resistance points 12.602 and 1.330.98

IBEX all trends down. Now at 6.388. Support at the low 6.350

SWED is slowly moving up with the support from daily 8 MA against falling 21 MA. R is at 1.006.08 and 1.011 firstly

Europe debt crisis and jobs numbers to drive stocks


This is CNN view for this week. I see no change in the American index rising monthly trend coming. The weekly trends will still be down but the now rising daily 8 MA must start a rally this week to make the trends look stronger. Friday at CET 14:30 May's job numbers will come which is the biggest news this week.

FTSE high today 5.387.49. Now trading 5.382. First and second R is 5.414.50 and 5.449.

Trading Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be extremely interesting because here the big trends eventual change will be decided

DAX now open between falling 21 and rising 8 MA with a small gap

FTSE, DOW and SP500 are all trading up with strong support from the rising 8 day MA:s. Target could well be the falling 21 day MA:s. Lots of smaller R points, firstly yesterdays highs must be taken out. It is still slow Asia trading. Europe opens in 80 minutes.


SWED downgraded to bear market

Swed monthly chart. Swed needs to close above 1.088 latest on Thursday which is impossible. Then the  strongest of all MA:s will turn down, 21 month MA, see picture. From Friday until April 2013 SWED will not get above 1.068. The 8 MA does not look strong enough to cross the 21 MA on upside. If it should the bear market will be left open again.

Europe at mid day calm. Most indexes in the middle of today's range. Since US closed today, little action in Europe

France CAC40 index get interesting for downgrade to bear market

FTSE takes new high after Europe opening at 5.413.5. Next R point is 5,449

FTSE must first get above 5.409.25 to get going on upside. Daily high is 5.397 now trading 5.391

My only interesting index is FTSE and its monthly close in four days time, May 31. I will not follow the other indexes as much as I use to during this week.

DAX opened 45 min ago with a big gap.Now trading 6.402. First R at 6.419 and 6.445. Daily and 2 hr trends up and weekly trend down.

SP500, daily and 2 hr trends now up. Main target and R point 1.356.89. Now trading 1.328. Dow very small movements within Fridays range.

FTSE has taken a new 4 day high in Asia at 5.393. Daily 8 MA sideways and will turn up Tuesday. Target might be R at 5.523.63 and S at 5.333. Europe opens in 40 minutes. 2 hr trend strongly up, weekly trend down. Several small R points on the way up to target


Spanish economy: Who is to blame for its problems?

The Big picture for the indexes and outlook for for week May 28

The indexes I follow have their own pages with 6 year charts below which I would like you to study carefully.
We are at a crucial point for the stock markets future trend from now and the coming weeks. If FTSE will be downgraded by me to a bear market after close Thursday 31 I think we will have a big trend change to long term bear markets for all indexes the coming weeks or months.
I have called all bear markets since 1987 in advance and now it feels the same.
So far this is my first Warning for an eventual big trend change.

My call comes from technical analysis only but of course I follow the fundamentals as well. The big fundamental thing in June will be Greece and the euro situation. But there are even bigger fundamental things. The enormous debt mountain that exists in the world right now. The lack of growth or prospects for growth. The extremely low interest rates in the world and the unwillingness from the banks to give loans. The political situation in the U.S. making the congress unable to pass important laws. China's topping out economy. I cannot see how these things could change now.The stock markets have always showed the way first and the situation there is more than critical right now.

Monday 28 the US is closed in observance of the Memorial day. That means that Asia and Europe trading probably will not make big changes in the daily trends. I will follow the markets as usual and blog if something important happens.

SP500 2006 - 2012, May 27 week

SP500 is currently the strongest index. The monthly trend is up but the weekly trend will be down from May 29. I think the top has been seen.

DOW 2006 - 2012, May 27 week

DOW monthly trend is still up, the weekly trend is down. I think we have seen the top of this index.
Remember that all big indexes use to follow each other when a big new trend starts. I believe FTSE is the leader in a new trend.

DAX 2006 - 2012, May 27 week

DAX look best of the European indexes I follow. The monthly trend is up so far but the weekly trend is down

SWED 2006 - 27 May, 2012 week

SWED is number 3, after IBEX and FTSE to eventually become downgraded to a bear market by me

IBEX 2006 - 2012, May 27 week and 2002 - 2012 May 27 monthly

Above weekly and below monthly. IBEX has been in a bear market for a year now and the down trend seems to continue. 

FTSE 2006 - 2012, May 27

Since March 30 when this chart was published 2 months have gone. Now you can easier see  the Head and Shoulder formation I have be blogging about. FTSE is still the clearest chart that I have down graded to a new bear market. The confirmation will come next Thursday at close depending of the exact monthly closing point. Click the  chart bigger and have a thorough look for yourself. First the neckline then neckline broken and back to 2009 low that is still what I think. To the neckline it will take approximately 5 weeks but this is only a guess.


New York Times has these charts in the article below about China

The world stock markets told us already in June 2011 that a slowdown will come.

In June 2011 I predicted in my blogs that a bear market was coming and it did. The current rally on upside by the worlds indexes is over or soon over and I still am awaiting May 31 to confirm if the first big index, FTSE really has entered a new bear market. The three articles below I think you should read carefully and look at the charts especially in the Chinese article. To me it seems more and more evident that the whole world soon will go into recession and long term I think that there will be a depression. My advice is still - get out of stocks, keep liquidity on current accounts that can be moved to cash or transferred quickly.

VIEW THE CHARTS IN THE BLOG ABOVE. You only look at them and see that China soon will have real problems.

After Barreling Ahead in Recession, China Finally Slows

British Recession Is Worse Than Thought, Data Says

In Spain, Bank Transfers Reflect Broader Fears

All stock indexes have calmed down at mid day in Europe

FTSE, DOW is in the middle of today's range at 5.350 and 12.564. SP500 is strongest and still holding in the top of the range, now at 1.328. DAX is also on upside working hard to get above very strong R at 6.373. IBEX day trend is down, small range, holding at falling 8 MA at 6.534.

US 10 year note is currently in a daily downtrend with 8 MA pointing down. This is the first time this happens since March.

DOW is taking the lead by taken out its 2 R points. Next R are 12.601 and 12.662

Europe has now been opened for 15 minutes and FTSE and DAX did not rally at all. There are maybe to many R points so these indexes hesitate to move right now. SP500 is working to get above its first R at 1.328.28 but there are many more R:s just above that point. This is really a difficult situation.

DOW need to take two R points to get going on upside. Those are 12.548.9 and 12.574.9. Now trading just below the first R with the 2 hr uptrend in place. But it is still a difficult call on upside because there are many other R points higher up.

DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED all closed on top Thursday.

The daily downtrend 8 MA could turn up already on Friday making a small rally big all the way up to the falling 21 MA. The two hour trends are all up. Technically the daily bottom formations that has been built this week are ready for an upward move.
There is currently now fundamental facts that could support a strong rally on upside but the very oversold situation is enough in itself.
Asia has started to lift the US indexes further up with gaps and the European indexes are close to or have broken the rising 200 day MA.
The move for Friday is difficult to predict exactly but my warning is for the upside despite the daily MA:s are pointing down. Personally I would not hold short positions right now but wait and follow the markets from Europe opening.

The EURO takes new lows in Asia but the GOLD has built a bottom formation that is ready for upside. OIL trend is still down.


EUROPEAN UNION. Despite hours of talks, Brussels has little to show

I recommend this article as a short and well written oversight of Europe's problems right now.

All indexes but IBEX holding steady in the middle of the weeks range. Daily trends are all down and and there is no threats for trend changes at the moment. 2 hour trends are sideways to down. EURO has taken a new low at 1.2533 and IBEX a new low at 6.385.5 now trading 6.390

Bond exodus on a par with eurozone bank run

DOW. The bar with the wrong close has now been corrected in the 5 min chart

The bar which has been talked about in yesterdays blog several times during the cheating process has now been corrected on this 5 min chart at CET 01.25. It is the third bar to the left of the low which closed at 12.315.1 at first which is at the low of that bar a so called spike. Now it has been corrected to 12.323.1. At  CET 18.10 it was extremely important for the cheaters to change the 1 minute and 5 minutes MA:s to allow the trend to change upward. This concludes this manipulation story which has and will cost investors in the rest of the world big money in short covering. To see the false close you should watch the chart pictures earlier in this blog.


DOW. Who could be interested to put the DOW in a perfect double bottom and start a strong rally ?

The government wants a stop to this down trend. A group of smart analysts, traders with connection also to people who makes the charts, which are cabled out to the rest of the world. It is very easy to manipulate the Dow if you have this know how. The last group make a lot of money and are happy to support anyone who also can gain. The public wants to see the Dow move up all over the world. But is it legal according to US laws to manipulate a trend change like this. It is very difficult to get any objective person in the US to go through and understand the very difficult circumstances in this case so of course the law enforcement does not have this knowledge. People from all over the world have read my blog the last 12 months and knows that I get upset now and then on these interventions. The closed markets in Asia and Europe are the investors who tomorrow must cover their short positions from this intervention on their own exchanges because the Dow leads all indexes world wide. I have sent today's blog to the best and most objective newsletter I know and asked them to have a look at this.

DOW makes a very strong upside run last hour built on what I think is a crime or cheating.

It is 10 minutes before close in the US and a very strong upside rally has occurred  since CET 21:00. Here is the one hour chart where you can see the real result of the manipulation I think occurred with the five minutes trend earlier

DOW final chart of cheaters manipulation to change the trend.

Only by making a false close and perfect bottom work could the cheaters do this trend change. It is not only 5 min trends close that are manipulated to disturb a correct movement of the market. This happens with 1 and 2 hours trend as well and often. 

DOW. 5 min trend now new high approaching falling 55 MA for eventual profit taking or just hold and wait.

DOW. Cheaters are now having lots of long positions taken at the lows. They have changed the trend to up. This is the worlds biggest marketplace. What do my readers think ?

DOW is now being moved above 21 MA turning point up to get a floor under the uptrend. Normal players enters and help change trend

DOW now after CET 17:00 close on 5 min chart.

Click on picture and see the falling 34 MA and the rising 5 MA. In the middle 21 MA. If crossed by 5 MA the 34 MA could be broken and a move to the highest 55 MA is a possibility. False close not corrected yet, but will be.

DOW 5 min chart. Dow stuck between falling 34 MA and rising 8 MA.

DOW. Resistance for the uptrend is 12.345.7 and last 5 min close at 12.354.3 for further advancement

DOW. Cheaters lift the DOW above 21 MA 5 min chart to get an upside close for further advancements.

DOW. 5 min 8 MA has turned up, cheaters plan could be to push the market up.

DOW. It is a shame of the United States of America to allow this. It has been going on for many years and no one seems to care.

DOW. Cheaters aim could be to get short positions on last rally for sharp down turn or start upside rally. Will soon know.

DOW. False close 5 min chart holds on downside at 12.315.1 by cheaters as expected.

DOW support at false close testing by cheaters I believe

DOW trying upside. Organized cheating is going on in my opinion.

DOW wrong close on 5 min chart. Happens only when intervention is on its way

DOW 5 min retest close below earlier low. Watch up for big traders who can start rally anyway.

DOW first retest at 12.325.2 now testing low which is 12.310.1

DOW breaks on downside, watch for retest of break out low 12.321.7

DOW my 5 min trading chart right now

MA:s indicates break on downside but could go up as well. Big players is in the market now.

DOW has taken a new low at NYC Stock Exchange at 12.326.58. My prices come from CFD trading. NYC trading now bottom building on one minute chart. For careful trading a break to new low or a bottom being built, take care.

EURO and Oil taking long term lows. For Euro nearly 2 years.

DOW has hit bottom 12.321,7 - or just above. This could be a big double bottom to buy using 1 minute chart.

SP500 and FTSE also to test lows

SP500 S points: 1.299.48, 1.295.48 and last 1.289.01

FTSE S points: 5.254.63, 5.248.13 and last 5.226.75.  My technical target 5.248.25

DOW is on its way to test the lows. Support at 12.371, 12.362.5, 12.331 and last S at 12.321.

FTSE has also been pushed down in Asia to 5.334.75 but is currently holding above the rising 2 hour 21 MA. Trend is sideways. Awaiting rest of Europe to open in 25 minutes.

Japanese NI225.I has taken a new daily low at 8.531

DAX opened with a downside gap at 6.340 just above the 2 hour rising 21 MA. This trend is now sideways.

DOW and SP500 have been pushed lower in ASIA to 12.430 and 1.308.47. The 2 hour trends are now down.


DOW, SP500 FTSE and DAX fell sharply last hour in US Tuesday to close at Mondays level.

All indexes rose in Europe with strong 2 hour up trends until close. SWED and IBEX closed at the high of the day at 1.001.45 and 6.637. DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX continued on upside but the trend lost steam 2 hours before close and fell sharply back to Mondays closing levels. DOW 12.504, SP500 1.316.77, FTSE 5.356.90 and DAX 6.370.64. This means that the hourly trends are now down to sideways when Asia opens. The daily down trends are still very well in place. SWED and IBEX might see a lower opening on Wednesday.

It is to early to tell if the last two days up trends is only corrections of the down trends or if some sort of bottom building will start. The Euro fell to its last resistance against the dollar at 1.2647. Gold and Brent crude also fell to its earlier lows for the month, 1.564 and 91.60.
The volatility will likely continue during Wednesday.

All main indexes closed at the days high in US Monday and the 2 hour trends are now all up. Trading has been sideways in the close areas in Asia and the high for today is below the falling 8 daily MA's which are the first resistance points now. There are lots of other R points as well just above Monday's closes. It is two and a half hour before Europe opens and decides the next movements.. DOW and SP500 also have key reversal bars Monday indikating the possibility that the down trend is over. Just now we can only follow the trading to find out what will happen next.


SP500. If 1.311.92 is taken the trend is strongly up

SP500. Wall Street has opened. Tries the upside, Now 1.300

SP500 now. If 1.295.76 will be broken on down side I think now that the upside break has to wait.

SP500 2 hour chart. Things will soon happen

The 8 MA chart will turn up strongly at 14:00. A break on upside can come from now on. However 15 min chart is down now and a bottom test of today's low can come first.

FTSE can change 2 hour trend to up today. R points are 5.318.75 and 5.372.59

SP500 2 hour chart now

The 2 hour trend is still down. The index has hit the falling green 21 MA but bounced back. This MA will continue to fall at least until 14:00. The blue 8 MA is slightly up and will get stronger on upside soon. For a the trend to change upwards the 8 MA must cross the 21 MA and this MA must turn up within a few hours after the cross.

So  now the 21 MA is the resistance and the 8 MA the support as long as it is moving on upside. I expect late afternoon to be interesting for the choice of trend.

PM Warns Greece June Vote Is About Eurozone

Watch up for sudden rallies.

All indexes are oversold and many traders are waiting for an opportunity to start a lasting rally. There are also many gaps to be closed from last week and beyond. The fundamental situation from this morning news about the Euro crisis seems less alarming with new initiatives coming up to EU meeting  on Wednesday. There is lot of money to be made by traders if a short covering rally could start.
First sign came  15 minutes ago when main indexes suddenly jumped. But they must have the 2 hour trend on their side to manage. On the other side there are sellers who want to get out of stocks. It could be very quick movements that I cannot foresee so please watch the small trends carefully.

Currently many 1 hour trends are up but all 2 hour trends are down so far.

FTSE, DOW and SP500 Monday at CET 8:30

FTSE closed Friday at 5.227. High today is 5.265.75. The 2 hour trend is down and the index is being traded sideways in Asia, now at 5.255.
DOW opened with a new low at 12.321. High has been 12.423. 2 Hour trend is down and now trading 12.388.
SP500 got the same pattern as the DOW now trading 1.296.

So far all indexes sideways in small moves.


Outlook for Monday May 21,2012.

Investors are likely to continue to bail out of stocks and continue the move into U.S. and German Treasuries and gold in search of safety as doubts over Greece's future in the eurozone continue to build.

DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED all closed the week with new downside spikes which is a sign of continued fall of the indexes. DOW closed at 12.362 and my technical target is unchanged at 12.075.

SWED might open with a new gap on downside since this index closes CET 17:30 and the big fall started after Europe closed. DAX and FTSE  CFD's continued to fall with the US indexes.

Trading starts CET 00:00 Monday morning and Asia will start 02:00. FTSE can now be traded together with DOW and SP500 from 02:00. DAX opens at 08:00 and Europe smaller indexes will open 09:00.

I will publish as usual before Europe opens and until US close at 22.00.


SWED on the verge to become a Bear Market. See monthly chart below.

Swed must close above 993 on May 31 to keep the 8 month MA moving sideways. It must also close above 1.088 the keep the 21 month MA to not turn down. SWED closed the week at 955.49. The technical picture indicates a strong possibility that the monthly close will come in below both the above numbers. If so the monthly trend will turn down and stay down for at least 8 months. Swed will then be in a new Bear Market. My target is firstly 832 and finally 615.

FTSE is now in a new Bear Market

If FTSE closes above 5.552 on May 31 the monthly trend will still be sideways. However I now see this possibility as highly unlikely so I hereby declare FTSE to be the first major index to enter a new Bear Market that will last for at least 8 months. My target for this Bear market is firstly 4.788 and finally 3.500 which is a drop from today's level 5.300  of 34 percent.

Main indexes closed down Thursday with new spikes.

DOW closed 12.440.
SP500 closed 1.304.
FTSE closed 5.300.
DAX closed 6.269. 


US and German 10 year notes take new all time high

NAS100.I is taken new lows

This is the most traded index in the US the tech heavy NAS. Here is the daily chart from Nov 2011 and the trend is falling strongly.

Cameron delivers speech on euro crisis and UK economy: Politics live blog

 George Osborne has defended the government's decision to talk about the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. Earlier this week Osborne said that "open speculation" of this kind was damaging to the European economy. But yesterday David Cameron floated the prospect of the eurozone breaking up at PMQs, and he raised the prospect again in a speech this morning. Asked about the U-turn in the Queen's Speech debate, Osborne said: "When eurozone central bank governors and finance ministers openly speculate on the possibility of Greek exit, then the genie is out of the bottle." He said there would be huge risks for Britain if the eurozone did break up, "but Britain will be prepared for whatever comes."

Bankia shares plunge again on worries over finances

Sick of hearing about Facebook.

DOW in perfect symmetric downtrend

Look at today and  the last four days it is a perfect downtrend. Here you move up during the day and than close at the bottom. Wonder how long this will go on. It looks as if robots are trading the whole day.

Italy MIB has taken a new low at 12.926.7 not seen since 2009

DAX is holding up well with no new low. Has built a double bottom that could be fired on upside if US news are good.

DOW and SP500 retesting broken S points at 12.601 and 1.324.57. Please observe US economic news at CET 14:30 which can change traders mood.

DOW and SP500 takes new daily lows at 12.551.5 and 1.317.69. Next supports are at 12.526.5 and 1.311.63

FTSE falls steeply taking out S point 5.318.75 with a new low at 5.308.25. Might retest broken S points. Otherwise road is open to next daily support at 5.106.43

IBEX takes new 9 year low at 6.452.2. Next main support is at 5.867.2

FTSE takes new low at 5.338.50 close to very important S points 5.324.03 and 5.318.75


FTSE falls steeply last hour to close Tuesday with a spike, that is a close at the days low, 5.404.46. Next daily S is 5.324.03. Dax takes a new closing low at 6.370.84

DOW and SP500 closes down at new lows. Very bad technical situation for Wednesday

DOW new low close at 12.633.6. Next daily support point at 12.424.2 SP500 closes at new low as well at 1.330.03. Next daily S point is 1.311.63.

Buy closing at the bottom of the trading day gives the indexes bad feeling for the traders. My goals with this down trend is the same as I wrote yesterday.

Gold, Silver, Oil plummets to new lows and worst of all is the Euro with a big drop today.

New Greek elections as coalition talks fail - Venizelos

Weekly charts 145 weeks, IBEX 3 years. Compare and see where 8 MA and 21 MA has crossed or not. A cross is more bearish. In this order from above. DOW, IBEX, SWED, DAX, FTSE and SP500

IBEX daily 90 days, same as DOW, FTSE, DAX and SWED below

You see the difference between these five charts regarding what the down trends look like. A break on downside for IBEX is very dangerous because 2009 low is just below the current sideways trend.

SWED daily 90 days. Same as the charts below

SWED and FTSE use to show the way for the big trends in advance. This index will open in 25 minutes and closed just below the critical line which is the same as the dotted line.

DAX same chart as FTSE and DOW below.

DAX has not taken a new low in 6 days and moves sideways but the daily trend is down and you see the falling 8 day MA just above current trading.

FTSE daily chart same period as the DOW below.

FTSE looks bearish in another way than the DOW. You see the critical line and the current rally on upside.

DOW is slowly moving up in Asia, above critical 12.706.1. One hour trend is up.

DOW daily chart Tuesday at CET 08:00. The small bar to the right is moving up just now one hour before Europe opens. The critical point is the horizontal line at 12.706. The falling blue 8 MA is the trend direction now at 12.862 which should be R point in a rally today. Above are the 21, 34 and 50 MA's which should stop any rally. Click on picture and watch where these falling MA's are.  


DOW and SP500 have closed at 12.695.1 and 1.338.24 and thereby broken their S points on close Monday. If the broken S points are not taken back with a daily close, 12.706 and 1.342 the targets for this downtrend are 12.075 and 1.289.

Take out your money from Spanish and Italian banks now...

In his blog May 13, Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winner in Economi believes Greece will leave EU next month. Then  there will be rush to take out money or move money to German banks from Spain and Italy. He also indicates that Spain and Italy might stop people from sending money out from their countries and stop giving out cash.

Read Eurodämmerung in this blog:


DAX and IBEX holding well above last weeks trading but DOW, SP500, FTSE and SWED have taken new lows.

EURO takes new low against dollar at 1.2829 not seen since Jan 18

US 10 year notes and German Schatz futures takes new al time highs

GOLD, SILVER and Nymex OIL futures takes new 2012 lows

SWED takes a new low at 999.1 not seen since Jan 9

European indexes holding above last weeks low which is a good sign and DOW has not got below 12.706.1. Only SP500 has taken a three months low so I hope that my reflection about black Monday was overdone.


DOW new low at 12.714 exactly at last S point before break down point 12.706.1

FTSE support point is 5.462.75. Now trading 5.479. DOW, SP500 and FTSE have strong 2 hour down trends while DAX and SWED are moving sideways above low points. IBEX 2 hr trend is down. Last S point 6.726.3 now trading 6.772.1

DOW's break down point is at 12.706.1. Now trading 12.747.6

SP500 has a very strong support point from March 6 at 1.342.78. Now trading 1.343.15

DOW has taken a new low at 12.742.6 but there are difficulties to get lower at present. Now back above earlier low at 12.744.7

Europe start by testing all indexes on downside but so far today's and Friday's lows have held.

DOW, SP500 and DAX continous the sideways trading in Asia.

Europe will open in 25 minutes. the 2 hour indicators are down for DOW and SP500 in this sideways trend and up for the DAX which has been traded only 30 minutes. I cannot tell if a bottom is being built or if we are closer to a drop on downside. Just have to watch the trading to find out.


FTSE100 now. Monthly, weekly and daily barcharts in that order from the top with comments

First chart is FTSE monthly from 2006 until today.The big top to the left is 2007 record high top. From the top down to the bottom 2009 there were five waves. From 2009 to the top 2011 there were only three waves. Look at this broad top. It looks like a head with two shoulders to me. If the downtrend continues the trend will come down to the horizontal line, called the neckline. If FTSE goes below that line it will fall down to 2009 bottom again which means a 40 percent correction from now.

Second chart is the weekly chart, one bar is one week. See how the right shoulder is falling to a new low. It looks to me as if the down trend to the neckline has started.

The third chart is the daily chart, one bar is one day. The last bar was the close Friday. Here you see the break on downside better from the first bottom to the left. This is probably the third wave down that has started. This is what FTSE looks to me now. But I am not absolutely sure yet that it is a head and shoulder. You will know what will happen or if I change my mind in the blog.


European indexes closed the week on a positive note.

IBEX closed up making the long daily downtrend end and start with a rising 8 MA on Monday. The 16 day sideways trend could get a buy signal next week.

SWED closed just above the rising 8 months MA. The weekly and daily trends are still down.

DAX and FTSE also ended the cash markets on upside but still with the daily trends down. As you know by now my charts for DAX and FTSE close at CET 22:00 together with the DOW and SP500.

DOW and all main indexes now

Since the indexes will follow each other during today's move I will concentrate on the DOW. Today's daily range is very small and in that small range the trading is currently in the middle. The 5 min trends movements I will not follow. The important movements will come with the trend setting charts, 2 hour and daily.

The 2 hour chart trend is still down and a break out of the trend can only come by sudden big news or intervention by the big traders. I do not believe this lull with continue until Wall Street closes and a move up or down can come any time and be powerful.

DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED are all in the same dangerous situation. The move will take them all in the same direction. No clear indication yet while it will be up or down.

DOW made a rally to 12.835.5 which I first saw as a gap covering rally from last hour Thursday at 12.823.7. However the 5 minute chart has created a strong bottom and the rally up to the gap has not come back to the sideways trend again so it now looks as if the DOW will start on upside. The five minute chart is up in all indexes.

DOW is now in a dangerous situation. Watch up.

This is DOW Friday morning in Europe at CET 07:44 This is a 51 day bar chart. You see two main tops and four MA:s if you click on the picture.
The question is if DOW will get below the low between the tops at 12.701.6 . If that happens there is a risk of a 631 points fall down to 12.075 today or next week. There are lots of technical reasons why this is possible. Here are a few. The 8 MA has crossed the 50 MA on downside and the 50 MA has turned DOWN. The 21 and 34 MA:s are also down and have both crossed the 50 MA. The four MA:s are in order from below 8 - 50. This situation opens the way to a move down to the rising 200 MA now at 12.187. The 2 hour trend is down with new closing lows in Asia.
This is the worst case scenario that can happen today and during next week. The best scenario is a rally from current level up to the falling 50 MA and a beginning next week to make a new top. There can also be another day with small moves like the last two days.

I will report important movements until CET 19:30 on this blogg.


FTSE is the most important index which often shows the way for the next big movements for all indexes

FTSE can get a bear market signal any day from now on.
The index has a very important R point at 5.547.75 for a daily close. Wednesday's close was 5.523. Today's range has been 5.515 - 5.552. Now trading 5.523 which means the first test of the R point did not succeed.
The daily trend is down but a rally can technically reach 5.672 where the falling daily 8 MA is right now.


DAX is in a very strong upside rally from the low at 6.368.12 with a first aim to close the gap at 6.545.87. However there is a R point at 6.497.89 to take out first. Now trading at 6.462

DOW and SP500 lows have held and both indexes are building bottoms for a rally which I expect to start quite soon when the falling 2 hour 8 MA is on its way to turn up.

SWED and IBEX open down with small gaps.

SWED's opening low is at 1.011.62 just below the rising 8 month MA at 1.029.64.

IBEX falls to a new low at 6.737.4. The 2009 low is at 6.696.5

FTSE is closed today Monday.

DAX has opened with a gap at a low of 6.368.14 which is below the rising 21 weeks MA and even below the rising 8 months MA which is at 6.446. Now trading at 6.397.

SP500 current trading range seems to be 1.382 - 1.345. If broken on downside 1.323 should hold.

DOW opens with a gap on downside and takes a low at 12.834 in Asia

DOW is currently at 12.880 and it seems that the rising weekly 21 MA might continue to give support at the low 12.834. The falling weekly 8  MA is now at 13.029 and it is the natural R point. Remember that the gap point at 13.019 must be closed.
Summary: DOW now seems locked between 13.029 area and 12.834 area.


DOW's close at the weeks low on Friday at 13.032.4 has changed the daily and weekly trend lines.

The weekly and daily 8 MA will both turn down when the Dow opens at CET 00:00 Monday. This means that a cap has started to be built to stop a new high, nothing else at present. The monthly uptrend is still very strong  and the monthly 8 MA now at 12.653 should stop any further downside drop.

The 2 hour trend is still down and it cannot change until Europe has started to trade.

SP500 picture looks the same as the DOW. DAX and FTSE both are close or at the rising monthly 8 MA where I expect a stop to the downtrends.


The DOW rally May 1 did not get a follow up on Wednesday because of strong selling in Europe.

After Europe close the DOW moved up a bit to close at 13.264.7. The daily trend  is still strongly up, today giving support at 13.190. DOW is now trading 13.253 in Asia. The markets are now focusing on US non farm payrolls news at CET 14.30 Friday. From a technical point of view this could be a start to retest the intraday high from Tuesday at 13.337.
SP500 daily trend is up as well but the index does not seem as strong as the DOW which is now the worlds leading index.

The European indexes are still moving sideways to slightly down. IBEX took a new  low Wednesday but is still holding above the last resistance point.