E.U. Leaders Set to Conclude Austerity Is Not Enough

U.S. consumers fizzle out even as incomes rise

DOW and SP500 break resistance and rallies with a possible aim to close Monday opening gap, which is the same as last Friday close.

DOW is testing daily break point at 12.580 from below now

SP500 and DOW day trend have now turned down

Main indexes take new low. FTSE in lead breaking last support for move to 5.645. Now at 5.664

SP500 breaks om downside below bottom formation , low now 1.303.37

FTSE seems to lead all trends now. Took just new daily bottom

FTSE first index to get down trend in daily chart. DOW, SP500 and SWED daily trend now sideways, first time since Dec 20.

DOW and SP500 meet selling pressure in rally. Now moving sideways above bottom formation in 15 min chart.

SP500 and DOW have finished bottom formation and now tries upside rally

DOW is testing 12.573.9 again, eventually building bottom formation or break down

DOW and SP500 CET 11:00 close on 2 hour trend is giving breathing room from bigger drop now.

FTSE leading Europe indexes down with a big downside gap to 21 day rising MA. where support is found for now. EURO falling as well.

SP500 is testing important resistance at 1.305.42 for a possible steeper drop. 2 hour trend down.

DOW is close to test important resistance at 12.573.9 one hour after Europe opening. 2 hour trend down


Crucial week will start Jan 30 for the main indexes.

DOW and SP500 daily trends are still up after Friday close. But the uptrends have lost momentum.
DOW closed at 12.665.3, below the rising 8 day MA for the first time in 23 days and the 2 hour trend is still down. A new test of crucial closing point 12.810 might come in the beginning of week January 30. DOW has only got a short time left to take a new high otherwise the daily trend will turn down.

SP500 closed the week at 1.316.40. The daily trend is still up and the 2 hour trend will start sideways on Monday. The important weekly resistance point is at 1.316.10 more or less the same as the closing point. The index closed just 2 points higher than last week which could be looked upon as a double top.

FTSE is the most vulnerable index with 2 closes below the 8 daily MA. 2 hour trend is down and I expect this index to be the first to change the uptrend.
SWED has a strong daily uptrend with 2 hour trend moving sideways.
DAX is the strongest index well in its uptrend channel and a 2 hour uptrend.

Conclusions: A very important week is coming for the indexes continued uptrends. There are signs that a trend change can come any day.


Lending data points to euro-zone credit crunch

Wall Street opens DOW one minute chart to break head & shoulder neckline. Target 12.575

SP500, FTSE and CAC40 all have 2 hr chart downtrend confirmed

DOW got short term sell signal with a target of 12.613.

EC's Rehn: Next three days crucial for euro zone

By MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) - Olli Rehn, the vice president of the European Commission, said Friday during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the "next three days will be very crucial for the future" of the euro zone. Rehn said that Greece was close to agreeing a deal with its private creditors. Athens is trying to secure another installment of EU bailout funds to help it avoid going bankrupt, but the nation needs to reduce its current debt with private lenders. Rehn said: "This will be a very important three-day period for reinforcing confidence in the euro zone." World leaders taking part in the summit at the Swiss ski resort are continuing to debate the future of the euro zone, capitalism and related economic topics. 

Spain's unemployment total passes five million

For Greece, the Outlook Is Still Grim

The EURO has exactly the same trading pattern as the DOW and might give an extra clue to what the DOW will do from now on.

DOW after 30 min opening in Europe, Friday Jan 27, High 12.742,6 and low 12,702.6. Daily trend up in the channel. 2 hour trend sideways and strong resistance at today's low. Everything is set for the most important trading this year. Dow now at 12.736

DOW very close to a 3 year high or a break on downside.

DOW, SP500, DAX, FTSE and SWED are all in their up trend channels and the daily rising 8 MA's have so far stopped any downside trial. There is only one thing to keep in mind for the next few days. DOW's 2011 top close was 12.810. Yesterday this index tried to make a new 3 year high and reached an intraday top of 12.838 but closed down at 12.733.6. Since the up trends are still in place a new test could come very soon.

Either DOW takes a new 3 year high or try a few more days and then turn around for downside. A very interesting interesting situation.  


Fed Signals That a Full Recovery Is Years Away

Fed unexpected rate decision reverses down trend to new highs

DOW has got serious sellsignal


DOW and FTSE have broken the daily uptrend but still hanging on to the 8 MA. All 2 hour trends are down and a break is not impossible. SP500 and DAX just above this MA

SP500 rallied in Asia after US close but fell when Europe opened to about same level as Tuesdays close. All main indexes in US and Europe are still moving sideways and the daily trends 8 MA give strong support.

I.M.F. Trims Estimates for Global Growth on ‘Sharply Escalating’ Risks in Europe


SP500 day chart and about the EUROS new daily uptrend

This is day chart for SP500. The last bar is today. That bar is within the 23 days uptrend channel. It has the rising 8 day MA just below the bar which is above the channel line. The 2 hour trend is now up.

The EURO has built a strong bottom and broken out of the daily channel on upside and the daily trend is now up for the EURO.

SP500 closed Tuesday at 1.313.87, small changes in daily close for the last four days. Daily up-trend holding well for all indexes and within channels.

SP500 rallies when US markets open, now at 1.313. Small trends up, 2 hour trend sideways. More changes up or down during the evening is expected

SP500 2 hour trend is down, long term channel broken. This can be a beginning of turn around. Presidents speech coming later and might move the market.

SP500 2 hour trend now retesting 1.309.67 to get the CET15:00 close above this point.

SP500 2 hour down trend now confirmed on close at 1.306.42

SP500's breaking point is 1.309.00. Now under retest from below

DOW has now got a five waves retraction on 2 hour chart. 2 hr close CET 13:00 crucial for confirmation. Five waves down means the top could have been seen.

SP500 now broken on downside.

SP500 and DOW got technical sellsignal on 2 hour chart. However this can be quickly reverst within the next few hours.

SP500 seems to get a sellsignal when 2 hour trend turns down at CET 11:00.

In Europe, Arguing to Apply Some Stimulus Along With the Austerity

Permanent Rescue Fund Seems Nearer in Europe

Euro zone ministers reject private bondholders' Greece offer


Why This Stock Rally Can’t Be Trusted

Indexes are in steady uptrend but there are now warnings signals.

SP500 closed on Monday at 1.315.20, more or less the same as the last two days. DOW closed lower than Friday at 12.707.5.
The market has been very optimistic until mid session. It now seems like EU will save Greece. The last week has been negative speculation which now seems to turn. This is probably priced in by now.The way of trading in New York Monday by sudden rallies and dips use to be the beginning of a top. Although the daily and weekly trends are still up and the price channels on the charts are holding well I am still searching for any weakness in the uptrend.
SP500 main resistance point on daily or weekly close is still 1.116.10. Now we have had three trials of the index to close above without success so now it is time to watch closely. DOW' drop to a lower close also indicates to the investor to carefully follow the markets now.

Europe has the same problem but they are not testing July's top as the US indexes but the October top. Pend-ling up and down these points. Another reason to be careful with Europe is the technical bear market that exists. For Europe the 8 months falling MA has crossed the 21 months MA on downside which use to be a strong indicator of a sudden turn around when the monthly bar goes over the 8 MA.

Very many technical indicators speak against each others just now.

Trends changes fast in Europe. All indexes now on new 2012 highs

SP500 and DAX back to sideways 2 hour trend

Analysis: History repeats itself in euro crisis debt spat

SP500 and DAX 2 hour trend seems to turn down now


Stock Market Rally Still Missing One Thing: A Crowd

The Great technical possibility.

Here is above DOW 1900 - 2012. The fifth and last wave goes from 1.000 1982 to 11.750, 2000. Then three tops with the last now in the making. Both pictures. It is also easy to see it as a head & shoulder formation with a neckline at 800. When broken the index will fall at least to the third wave top 1966 at 1.000.


The very big picture from my technical perspective

Currently the U.S., Britain and Europe are asking about one per cent for loans. The sovereign debts increase enormously year by year. There is no stop insight for either of these habits. The SP500 has moved from 100, 1982 to 1.500, 2000. A drop to 800, 2002 and a new top at 1.500 2007 and a drop to 800, 2009. From here a top 2011 or 2012 at 1.300 – 1.500. The big technical picture shows that there are five waves on upside 1900 – 2001. This third top in 2012 seems to be the final top before the big drop that will take the indexes down to the fourth wave at 100 within a few years. Yields on 10 year notes have fallen from 16 % to 2% during 30 years. These yields are at the very bottom and from here we will start to move up again within months with the long term target of 16%. Bond yields and SP500 followed each other 1962 – 1985. Then yields fell and SP500 rose to 1.500. After the top that will come 2012 the index will fall and rates go up until the curves meet again.

Central Bank Becomes an Unlikely Hero in Euro Crisis

Friday rally in U.S. the last 15 minutes took Dow and SP500 to new highs. What does that mean for week Jan 23?

The intervention rally during the last 15 minutes took SP500 from 1.311.77 to the top close at 1.314.51. Very near to the first weekly close resistance at 1.316.07. DOW rallied to a new high and closed at the top at 12.718.7 just 6 points shy of July daily high close at 12.724.0
DAX, FTSE, CAC and SWED all closed on new highs but just below October highs.
The strong up trends are all in place and the markets should go higher on Monday.  The EURO closed above a weekly important resistance point at 1.2931.8.
I do not believe the DOW and SP500 take can take out the 2011 tops right now but the coming week will be extremely interesting. Asia trading Monday will give us the first clue.


SP500 refuse to close on 30 min chart below 1.309.38, Trend now sideways.

SP500 seems to break on downside very soon with a target of 1.303.76

SP500 charts now.

SP500 has very strong weekly resistance point at 1.316.10. In trading short term I         assume that this point will be above tonight's close. I could be wrong but this is trading. Thursdays close high was 1.315.15. Today's high so far has been 1.315.06.
Rallies have difficulties to hold above 1.312.81. The one hour trend is now down. Selling 1.312.81 now in small pieces. Today's target if a break on downside occurs will be 1.299. If  the 1  hour downtrend will be in place at close I will keep positions.

SP500 30 min trend still down. Resistance on upside 1.311.56. Break point resistance 1.309.38 on 30 min close

SP500 has got a sell signal on the 30 min chart


This is a six month daily line chart showing SWED but the same could be said about SP500.

Here is SWED30.I daily since July 2011 until now. To the left that big top formation from which the index fell in August with a final bottom in October. Then the steep correction with a sharp drop which stopped before the bottom and the start of the longer uptrend from November until now. The horizontal line is current price. The falling MA is 200 and the rising is 50 days moving average. You can see that the next big resistance are the lows of the top formation at around 1053. It is a long way to go and the next few months will be very interesting to follow. SWED's chart is very much alike SP500 chart.

SWED breaks last resistance point at 1.037.58. Now trading 1.039.11. First target weekly resistance at 1.053.68

All indexes rallies on very good news for Spain 10 year bond rates.

Spain Passes Key Bond Test, France Also in Demand

Very small movements in Asia and Europe until now, CET 12:30.

All indexes are moving near Wednesdays close in the U.S. 1 hour, 2 hour, daily and weekly trends are up and the indexes are moving in channels slowly up. Observe that the daily bars now are very close to the channel top so a move down to the channel bottom could occur. SP500 and DOW has broken all resistance points for moving higher. The European indexes still have important resistance points to take out above current level.
The daily and weekly charts for DOW, SP500, DAX and SWED look strong and bullish. It is very important now to follow the trading on 5 -30 minutes chart to see if anything happens that can look like a trend change. The strong indexes are all trading above the falling 8 month MA. But I want a close above these MA:s to name the indexes bull markets.

The EURO's uptrend continues slowly and one important resistance point has been taken this morning.

Investors Are Facing Up to Reality of Greek Debt Default

SP500 has taken a new high in Asia at 1.311.08 CET 04:00. All Asian indexes are up and Europe might open with new high gaps if this trend continues.

SP500, DOW, FTSE and DAX new closing highs.

The uptrend has now been running for 21 trading days. SP500, DOW and DAX shows no signs of slowing down. FTSE and SWED are hesitating to move higher. The bond auctions in Europe have been impressing. It feels now like the medias warnings about Europe's economic outcome is too pessimistic. The EURO is attacking its top channel and the positive trends in commodities, China's economy etc together with the technical charts points to further strong Euro support.
I do not know what kind of news will stop the up trends.


U.S. indexes made a rally last hour. What will happen now?

This is SP500 five minutes chart during the last five days. Here you see three tops and a break below the middle bottoms. Fridays started with the break down fall but then built a bottom which in the last hour rallied to close above the bottoms. The top formation is powerful and I think the last rally will not go much  higher on Tuesday - Monday is closed in the U.S. Dow got the same picture. The daily trends are still up but the 2 hour trends are down for most of the indexes. DOW is still the strongest and then comes SP500. FTSE has moved 9 days sideways and the daily trend has turned down on Friday. DAX moves sideways but the 2 hour trend is down by Friday close so I expect Monday for these two indexes to be down. I need to see the beginning of Europe trading Monday morning to confirm this. Since US is closed the trading might be slower than usual.

The EURO closed at a weekly resistance point and might take a new low the first days of the week.

The fundamental input will come from big company results this week. The big picture shows the European indexes blocked to go much higher by the falling 8 months MA and on the downside is the rising two week trends.


SP500's situation now.

The last close at CET 17:00 for the 2 hour chart was the lowest close so far. It came in at 1.282:53. Now the market wants to test the earlier support points that were broken in the downtrend. First resistance on upside is 1.284.72, then 1.285:87 and finally the most important at 1.286.95.

All of these points must be taken back soon with a 2 hour close. If not a big fall will occur today or next Monday.

SP500 possible target technically 1.269.37

SP500 close to new lower resistance point at 1.279.51. Low so far 1.279.70

SP500 is currently below very strong support 1 hour trend at 1.2825.87. Low so far is 1.2820.0

The Euro has fallen steadily since Europe's opening and is now only 37 points from 16 months bottom at 1.2660.

DAX and FTSE 2 hour trend now down. Open for possibility to a big drop technically

DOW and SP500 have 2 hour trend sell signals in place now

Italy bond auction fails to match Spanish success

Europe Gets Some Reassurance in Auctions of Debt


The Europe and US fundamentals are now squared.

Europe came in with very good prospects for Spain's sovereign problems. Could easily borrow 10 billion out of 170 this year for around 5 percent long bonds. Spain has only 60 percent of BNP as debt, better than Germany for instance. Italy is the only country that I have doubts about still, but Thursday auction was OK but next week will show longer bonds.
Even if Greece cannot make it and Italy will have problems I now believe that the Euro zone will make it and that the Euro will be OK.

I think that the problematic state will be the U.S. during the coming months with no increase in Christmas retail and an increase in number for new unemployment help.
No one can tell which is worse off for 2012, US or Europe. All the good things about America during Christmas just crashed today and US is back to square one will lots of problems ahead. If the dollar starts falling or China get less money the Fed will have to buy most of the new notes and bonds and that situation is much worse than what could happen in Europe. And think about this. How long can the U.S. auction notes for less than two percent. Certainly not forever. Add the political situation and it smells problems.

Gold is in a 11 days uptrend and closed Thursday at 1.650. First resistance is 1.677. Gold has done five waves on downside which use to be the beginning of a down trend.If the current uptrend will reach only three waves the gold should be in for a big fall. This will take about two weeks to figure out.

STOXX50E.I, the 50 Europe blue chips, has got a strong weekly buy signal that likely will push the index to take new daily highs soon. Now at 2.355.

The EURO has built a four day double bottom at 1.2706 and rallied Thursday to close at 1.2822. Next resistance is at 1.2934 and 1.3049

The DAX is in a strong uptrend, closing Thursday at 6.218. Likely target is 6.400.

FTSE has moved 8 days sideways at Thursday close and a break on up or downside must come soon.

Thursdays close keeps the trends up

Thursday DOW closed at 12.468.1 and SP500 at 1.294.90, both new daily highs.
The trend is slow but strongly up. Earlier today mentioned targets are still in place.

Yields fall sharply at Spanish, Italian debt sales

DOW continues uptrend. Now at 12.488. Target might be July 2011 daily double top at 12.724.

France CAC40 has now broken the sideways trend on upside and got a weekly uptrend in place.

Euro-zon indexes rally and SP500 takes new high. DOW and FTSE still in sideways trends.

DAX makes a powerful break on upside. Now at 6.232 and target seems to be 6.370 area. SP500 takes a new high above 1.297. Target could be 1.305. SWED breaks above its falling 200 MA and target could be 1.034.

Italy, Spain see 10-year yields fall after auction


This is why the markets have rallied Tuesday

There has been speculation in media all over the world why the SP500 rallied from opening in Asia CET 01.00 Tuesday morning. In CNBC they said this morning that no one know why the stocks rallied today.

This is why. SP500 was during the last six days creating a big fourth wave and an hourly close in the market at 1.282 would trigger this wave to make a fifth wave on upside where the target mathematically would be above 1.296. The computers and experienced analysts know this. Nothing at all happened fundamentally.


The EURO has just opened with a new low at 1.2668.3 Sunday at CET 19:00

The Big picture now for the stock indexes

After the first week of 2012 one index has turned technically bullish and that is the DOW. There is only one thing that makes me hesitate about the Dow and that is the falling 8 months MA. On the other hand this index is now above its 200 MA which is rising and the 50 days MA has crossed the 200 MA on upside and is rising.
Much good news about the American economy came last week especially regarding the employment situation telling me that the US economy is slowly starting up. The US blue chips index is also looked upon as a safe haven when the dollar goes up and the Euro down. A good alternative to bonds. However the daily trend has been sideways the first week and there is a possibility of a drop if the Spanish and Italian bond auctions this coming week will be too bad.
SP500 is number two but not in a bull market technically. The daily and weekly trends are up but the monthly trend down.
FTSE, SWED and DAX are the best performing European indexes with daily and weekly trends up. The 2 hour trends however are down or sideways.
CAC, IBEX and MIB weekly, daily and 2 hour trends are all down.
There is no clear long term trend for any of the indexes yet. The EURO finished last week down at a new 16 months low just above 1.2678 which is a strong resistance point. I expect the Euro to continue down and there is a risk of a steep fall if the European crisis suddenly gets worse during the coming weeks.


SP500 and DOW closed at the same level for a third day on Thursday

The daily trends are still up and the 2 hour trends are moving sideways. Markets are now waiting for US employment data for December at CET 14.30 which is expected to come in at 150.000 new jobs. These figures are always market movers.
Next week  Spain and Italy will sell 10 year bonds and the yields will focus the markets.
It is still to early for me to give a relevant prognosis for the indexes.


DOW and SP500 now 2 hr trend sideways to up

More about the gaps for DOW and SP500

All indexes daily trends are up but the 2 hour trends for Dow and SP500 are down.
Tuesdays huge gaps must be closed and this could be the start to do just that. Dow's gap is at 12.242.6 and SP500's gap starts at 11.260.94.  The road down could take time and the downtrend could also change before the gaps are closed.

I still want to see more of the trading to give my forecast for a longer trend.

DOW and SP500 2 hr downtrend now in place with target Tuesdays gap


The trading Tuesday January 3, is too difficult to call. The stock indexes point in different directions.

A lot could be written about the outlook for the stock indexes the first week of 2012 but I have chosen to just concentrate on the small trends direction until I know more during the week.

 DOW closed the year at 12.209.5 after a steep fall the last hour. SP500 did the same to close at 1.256.65. The one hour trends are down but the daily trends are up. The turnover the last week of 2011 has been about half of what is normal and it is difficult to draw definite conclusions of what will happen now.

The English FTSE100 closed several hours earlier in Europe at a very interesting point, 5.575.98, just below the falling monthly trend. At the opening Januaries trend will be lower at the same time the 2 hr trend is up.

All of my questions will get answers the coming days and I think the whole week will be very interesting.

I wish all my readers a prosperous 2012.