DOW rallies to strong resistance at 13.000 and falls back

DOW 2 hour chart now.

The index has been updated until now. See the 4 tops at the horizontal line at 13.025 and the break down to a low of 12.958 all on the 2 hour chart closes. The lowest close is at 12.921. A break below that on a 2 hour close will send the DOW down to 12.800 area.

DOW takes new intraday high at 13.053.2 and then turns around to take a daily low at 12.925.7

DOW has now got a 2 hour sell signal making the 13.000 a difficult target today. The daily low is at 12.925.7. Support for DOW at 12.921.6. A break below this point could send the index below 12.800. First resistance on upside is at 12.982.

Details later about what happened

SP500 takes a new 44 months intraday high at 1.377.60

Markets still very volatile. DOW now down again. Range 13.009 to 13.046

DOW now takes new highs on ECB report, now 13.047.3

DOW drops on first news about LTRO 2.


What does the 13.002.9 close mean for the the market now ?

The close has mainly a psychological impact. The immediate market impact is none since the market several times during the last six days has been trading above 13.000. The monthly, weekly and daily trends are still holding up well but we now have a triple top and a double bottom during the six days and a break on the upside or downside must come sooner or later. I want to see a daily close above 13.052.5 for giving a green light to take on the 2007 top. Here is the daily bar chart since Dec 15. The last six days DOW has moved sideways as you can see.

Wednesday ECB will lend the European banks more money. It is expected to be between 300 and 500 billion euros. The market and the euro will most certainly react on the news how much has been lent.

DOW took a new intraday high Tuesday at 13.035.6 and closed at 13.002.9. The 2 hour trend will most likely start sideways in Asia.

DOW falls below 13.000 again. Target 12.952

DOW jumps to a high of 13.010.5 on Consumer news. Now trading 12.970. One hour trend is now down.

Consumer-confidence gauge rises to 70.8 in Feb.

DOW takes new lows. Target could be Mondays low at 12.879. US news at CET 16:00 on consumer confidence. DOW now at 12.957

DOW support at 12.979.1 held . Look at what happened.

Durable goods orders for January fell 4 %. DOW broke 8 hours trading range 13.011 - 13.030 on downside to a low at 12.976. Now trading 12.985.

All European indexes fell in the same pattern as DOW. News about durable goods in the U.S. makes every index in the world fall simultaneously. That is my evidence that how the DOW moves everyone else move during certain periods. What happens in the U.S. happens at the same time and pattern in Finland for instance

DOW breaks on downside. Now 12.996

DOW has now been trading between 13.011 and 13.030 for 6.5 hours. No clear sign of breakout direction. US has Durable gods news at CET 14:30 and Consumer confidence at 16:00.

DOW 2 hour closes continuation from Monday. DOW now testing the top area.

Here is the same chart as yesterday updated until CET 10:15. You see the two tops and the two bottoms and now the three wave rally up to the top area again. The possibility of a break on upside to new highs is currently being tested. 


DOW closed Monday at 12.981.9.

DOW fell in Europe exactly to the support point 12.897. When US opened the DOW rallied from this low during  2 hours to 13.025. During the next 4 hours the DOW traded sideways and reached today's high at 13.025 just 55 minutes before the close. The market then fell back to end at 12.981.9.
We now have a double top at 13.030.6 and a double bottom at 12.879 for the last five trading days. Normally this should be the trading range for the next few days. However the US rally Monday was not normal trading in my view but an intervention by professionals to take out all stops on short positions in Europe, which was successful. It had nothing to do with fundamentals at all.

Since the big players are active now it is difficult to tell the next daily move. The trades that are used is computerized and can go below or above key points and then suddenly turn around. I will watch Tuesdays trading and blog as usual and do my best.

DOW is aiming for the top after US open.

DOW trend still down. Support at 12.897.7 and 12.879. Resistance on upside 12.967. Now trading 12.925

DOW 2 hour closes chart from Feb 16 until now. Risk for further drop.

Here you see the two tops and between them the lowest close at 12.927. The latest close 15 minutes ago came in below that point at 12.925.1. Dow is now trying the upside but there is a risk for a drop all the way down to Feb 16 bottom at 12.733. Click picture to get bigger.

Europe has been open 15 minutes. Dow 30 points lower than US Friday close. Hourly trends are down but small movements. Asia traded sideways.


G20 moves to line up huge rescue deal for April

Outlook for week Feb 26

DOW and SP500 have now taken new highs for 10 weeks. The daily up trends are strong and there are no signs of of momentum loss.
I will continue to concentrate on the DOW which is the market leader and the first index to give a sign of trend change. The last four days there has been two top hits intraday at 13.030.6 but so far no close above 13.000. The two tops could be seen as a double top right now and resistance points. If broken the very important resistance point from May 2008 at 13.052.5 on a weekly close will be crucial to get above. On the downside 12. 879 should give support.  From a technical, historical and psychological point the coming week will be very interesting regarding the DOW.

SP500 daily picture looks the same as the DOW. However SP500 has so far got a high at 1.370.30 and the 2011 top at 1.376.30 is the first resistance.


SP500, DAX. FTSE and SWED all takes new highs after jump start openings with gaps. DOW is close to new high.

DOW and SP500 opens with a big gaps on upside Monday i Asia.

DOW closed Friday at 12.948.6 and opened Monday in Asia at 13.030. The fifth wave have now started and the target is the all time high in the 14.000 area. There are many resistance points on the way and the first is a weekly close at 13.052.5 from April 2008.

SP500 which closed Friday at 1.360.80 and opened Monday at 1.370.30 has not yet taken 2011 high at 1.376.30 which now is a resistance point.

The EURO opened higher as well  now trading at 1.3219.

The markets are pricing in a positive outcome in Europe today regarding Greece.
Wall Street is closed today for the Presidents Day.


More work needed yet on elusive Greek bailout deal

U.S. stocks mostly up on Greece optimism Dow industrials within reach of 13,000, level not seen since May 2008

Here are weekly charts from 2007 - 2012 from the top down SP500, DOW, FTSE, DAX and SWED. Click on the pictures to get bigger. SP500 and DOW looks nearly identical. DOW has now broken earlier top and an new fifth wave is under way. The European indexes look he same too but see how far they have to go to reach the 2007 tops.

DOW is in an expanding triangle.

DOW one hour chart in an expanding triangle with higher highs and lower lows. If that is correct the trend will go down to the bottom line again and then break on upside. Five waves and a breakout according to R.N. Elliott

German DAX takes a new 30 week high at 6.848

Greece seen closer to bailout on ECB move ECB said to swap bonds, Germany backs off calls for delay

SP500 reverse sell signal. Europe very choppy trading. Difficult to see clear hourly trends. The last two days show that DOW can fall 200 points Wednesday and rise 200 points Thursday.

SWED takes new 30 week high at 1.096.5.

SP500 got one hour chart sellsignal now

DOW has been topping out in Asia and Europe opening. Seems to start falling soon


Economic Data Pushes Wall Street Higher

Euro Schatz Futures got a long term sell signal today indicating that the yield will rise. US 10 year bills have moved several months sideways and a break will come sooner or later. The Schats futures use to go hand in hand with 10 year notes

DOW made a new high on daily close at 12.901.1. US market firm on upside since news about jobless claims and GM result. However there was no intraday test of Wednesday's high. During Friday a test of the high 12.950 may happen. The strong 200 points rally will take several hours to top out and I do not expect any tests on downside until CET 13:00 Friday.

DOW and SP500 rallies in the US. I am looking for 61.8 % of yesterdays bar which is 12.873 and 1. 352.32. a break of these points make the key - reversal from yesterday not binding.

DOW rallies on opening. 12.840 seems to be first target on one hour close.

DOW breaks on upside on US news. Now 12.773

DOW:s bottom building have problems. A strong resistance is at 12.760.8. One hour downtrend moving sideways. On downside support lies at 12.725.5. If that is broken on a 30 min or 1 hour close Dow is in real trouble. DOW now at 12.736

DOW has built a bottom in the 30 min chart and a rally to test the resistance point could occur quite soon. A rally to get up against a key reversal is very interesting and professional short sellers are definitely in place so from now until US close the market might get wild swings.

The DOW now

DOW 6 hour chart 27 days. One dot is the close every six hour.
This chart shows a power full sell signal. DOW:s resistance point on upside is a close above 12.780 before CET 10:00.

The one day resistance point is 12.800 and the falling 8 days MA is at 12.840. The likely hood for a change of the long daily uptrend is currently at 50 percent. 

DOW got a new 9 days low one hour after Europe opens. This low is below the rising 21 day MA, This has not happened since Dec 20. Yesterdays key reversal down and the falling 8 day MA can lead to a change down in the daily trend. However US traders use to lift the DOW so now it is just a waiting period how this will play out. SP500, DAX and FTSE looks the same. DOW still leads the indexes.

EURO falls to a three week low at 1.2993. Daily and 2 hours trends down.

Greece bailout: Eurozone calls for tighter oversight


DOW closed Wednesday at 12.780, the lowest close in 9 days. The bar is a so called key reversal telling that today's high at 12.950 could be the top of the uptrend. More over the 8 day MA has now turned down but the 21 MA is up, giving support so far. The 2 hour trend is down.

Exclusive: Euro zone ponders delay of 2nd Greek program

All indexes strongly up with rising 2 hour trends

DOW new high at 12.950. SP500 new high at 1.359.84. DAX, FTSE and SWED also new highs. Euro moving sideways.

Portugal’s Debt Efforts May Be Warning for Greece

DOW and SP500 rallies to new highs in Asia, 12.937 and 1.359. Europe will open with big gaps in 40 minutes.

DOW and SP500 rallies last 25 minutes to close at 12.872 and 1.350 holding up the daily trend when markets openThursday

Greece: Cash Lifeline Meeting Cancelled Greece


DOW closed Monday at 12.870.4 The real market mover news will come Wednesday when EU is expected to decide on Greece. I expect Tuesday to be a waiting day in the markets.

DOW's chart below shows the big picture

Dow weekly chart since May 2010. One bar is a week. Look at the 2011 top at 12.923 and last weeks top at 12.930. Last bar is this week but shows only today Monday. I still believe that 12.923 will hold. If so you can imagine a huge double top. And if I am right we will get a long bear market. 

Greece still to convince Europe over rescue deal

EURO seems to have reached its high for the day and preparing for downside break.

SP500, DOW and FTSE have made short covering rallies close to earlier tops and is now pulling back. The daily trends look very constructive for these indexes.

DOW rally reached 12.900 and closed gap. Now retreating

DOW and SP500 take new daily highs, Europe trade sideways

European gap openings started short covering but now indexes are falling back

FTSE opens with a huge gap, now trying to cover Fridays gap at 5.904

EURO trend has been up since opening Sunday at CET 19:00. Now at 1.3260.

German Dax closed Friday at 6.682. DAX futures opened at a high of 6.760. Gap to cover on upside is at 6.799

DOW trend is up but gap at 12.881,7 still open. High so far today 12.871.9. Europe will open up in 25 minutes

SP500 trend is up. Gap at 1.350 closed . High today 1.351.51

EURO and DOW jump on opening in Asia on Greece Parliament votes.

DOW is currently at 12.850 which is between two gaps, 12,801 and 12.882. Asia has only been open for 40 minutes and it is too early to tell which gap Dow will cover first.

The Euros rally is back to Friday close again.


Outlook week Feb 13 for the Dow which now is leading the world indexes.

DOW fell to a low of 12.741 Friday and rallied the last 15 minutes to close at 12.800. This close came in below the rising 8 day MA which is a warning sign that a new top will be difficult. Since the trend for the 2 hour chart is down and strong, there is a possibility that Monday can keep the trend down which makes the daily trend closer to a change on downside. However the daily main trend is still in tact now, well within its channel borders and a sudden drop is unlikely to get below 12.700 now. The gap at 12.882 must be covered. This long uptrend need  a topping out process that could take several days. A drop down to 12.700 could be stopped by the rising 21 day MA.

I still do not believe in a close above 13.000 and we have probably seen this up trends top at 12.929.5. Bad news about Greece seems to be priced in. There are a few things  that can make the DOW weaker and that is the bond markets where the German and US 10 year notes seems to have reached its highs and a downtrend could start quite soon. The Euro has nearly finished its uptrend and could also start falling soon.
The week will give a new piece to the puzzle.

The Great Depression and Today's Europe

What the American Presidents did in the 1930's is what is being tried today in Europe. The austerity programs did not work at all. Only a world war helped the U.S. economy then. Are we doing the same mistake again ?
Read my blog http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/ and find out for your self.

Greece Plunged Into Political Turmoil Over Austerity Measures

In Greece, the Growing Shadow of the Dreaded Drachma


DOW breaks on downside to a low of 12.778.7. Last resistance for a more powerfull drop is at 12.771.1

DOW have now moved sideways in the 12.829 area and a 15 min chart bottom has been building. US traders will soon be in the market

DOW has got a gap at 12.881.7 which must be closed. This is likely to happen today most likely when the US players come to work.

The DOW now

The DOW is on its fifth sideways day with a top of 12.929 which is not enough to qualify for an attack on the 2007 top. Right now it looks like this was the final top.
The rising 8 days MA at 12.825.1 is currently holding. The 2 hour trend is down, now at 12.831.2 with main resistance at 12.839.2. Thursday's close was the highest at 12.889.7.
Taken together this situation 120 minutes  after Europe opened, points to a test of resistance at 12.839.2 which is crucial for the DOW to get above on the 2 hour chart. If that fails the downtrend will continue which could be the beginning of a trend change down. How this situation is played out might have big importance for the next week.

All indexes 2 hour sell signal.DOW and SP500 get support by daily 8 days rising MA. This could be the end of the uptrend.

EURO and DAX plus DOW and SP500 close to 2 hour sellsignal on Greece

DAX dives on a No from EU finance ministers. See Story


The DOW's next daily resistance point is 13.019.5 and then 13.052,5

DOW has taken a new 44 months high at 12.929.5

Greek minister heads to Brussels with incomplete bailout deal

EURO broke on upside again to a new high at 1.3312. First resistance at 1.3340

EURO and Main stock indexes are still in strong daily uptrends and manage to move a few points higher day by day.

DOW got a new intraday high on Wednesday at 12.907 only 16 points from 2011 high at 12.923. Today at CET 06.30 a new upside test trial have started to test the current top again. The EURO and SP500 are also on their way to test Wednesdays tops.
Investors seems to just wait, not trade. Only a few stocks have been lifted the last few days, for instance Apple. To me this cannot go on and on so I am still looking for any weakness in these slow up trends. Greece is still he main problem and a reaction must come soon by the markets. From the big perspective I see no fundamental reason for the Dow to take out the 12.923 top because the fundamentals are not there to support a new high. The world economy is not better now compared to May last year when the top was set. The outlook for 2012 is not better either. I still think the Dow will make a double top and then fall back to 2011 lows. The problem is when this will start. Every time the 2 hour trends turn down I advice caution. There are lots of other indicators, for instance German Schatz bonds that in my view cannot go higher which means that bond yields can turn upward quite soon.


U.S. stocks gain on hopes for Greece Fed chief’s testimony also supports low-rate expectations

EURO and all main indexes take new highs on close in New York

DOW takes a new intraday high at 12.901. The 2011 year high is 12.923. All trends are up for the DOW.
SP500 new high at 1.348.79 and all European indexes trends are also up.
We have now had three days sideways with small gains. The weekly and daily trends are very steady on upside only the hourly trends may change during the day.

EURO has broken out of 9 days sideways trend on upside and taken very strong resistance point at 1.3236.7 to close at 1.3259.2. This bullish move might indicate that coming news from Greece will be accepted by the markets.

Greece Puts Off Talks a Day as Workers Strike

DOW one hour trend is down with resistance at 12.771. Broken out of one hour channel as well. Watch up

Uptrend is topping out on 2 hours charts for all main indexes. DOW and SP500 close to sell signal

Europe opens in 10 minutes. DOW and SP500 holding 2 hour uptrend and the trends are within the up channels. All gaps are closed. The only thing that can stop the up trends from taking new highs would be bad news about Greece today. EURO nine days sideways trend continuous and it seems like Greece god or bad news can break this trend up or down today.


DOW closed Monday at 12.838.4 and SP500 at 1.343.20. Two hour trend is now up and a test of Fridays high might come Tuesday. Greece delay answer to EU until Tuesday.

Europe’s Banks Reluctant to Aid Companies in Need of Cash

Greeks delay bailout talks as Merkel demands action

DOW and SP500 2 hour trend sideways. Looks like they want to close gaps at 12.835 and 1.342 today

Greek parties face EU bailout deadline

All main indexes are in a 2 hour downtrend after one hour open in Europe. EURO got daily downtrend and has broken important support at 1.3048.5. Greece has not given answer to EU yet. Banks are falling


DOW might take a new 4 year high week 6 Feb.

DOW closed Friday at 12.861.1 just shy of 2011 intraday high at 12.923. Monday Feb 6 will show if the current uptrend is still in place for a new 4 year high. I think DOW might be able to take 13.000 but not to hold it long.

Greece will come in focus again as you can read in the article below.

SP500 closed 1.344.47, a new 7month closing high and I believe it will follow every move of the DOW now.

Europe main indexes which started the bull run Friday closed at new highs. DAX has now risen 37 % since last September.

The good employment news in the U.S. might go away week Feb 6 and the worse case scenario is that Greece cannot make it.

Greek Talks at a Delicate Point, Official Says


DOW 2 hour trend turns up now

EURO uptrend topping out and downtrend will soon continue

The EURO will probably show the way for all indexes. The very strong resistance point is at 1.3237 and the last four days the EURO has tried to reach that point but failed. The daily trend looks like it has given up more trials at present and the weekly chart tells me we are o the verge to trend change.
All in all I believe right now that the beginning of a down trend could start any day for the stock market indexes and the Euro. Of course daily up beat news always can interfere with the technical daily picture but the daily and weekly trends cannot be changed by any news.

Main indexes losing daily uptrend momentum. Difficulties to take out critical resistance points.

The weekly strong resistance points have held for 9 days so far while DOW has moved sideways trying to pop up now and then to make a daily close above 12.810. Time is slowly running out and the daily trends are now sideways.

SP500 is in the same situation with the important 1.331 resistance point. DAX has today tried its resistance point at 6.639 but  not managed to hold up. FTSE must take 5.804 soon and SWED must get a weekly close above 1.054 for the uptrend to continue.

DOW and SP500 have now got 2 hour trend change to down