The markets might be very volatile from June 27 to July 5 because of Greece. All but one stock index have sell signal now.

The money promised Greece by the EU will only be released if the Parliament agrees to Austerity plans latest June 28. Most specialists believe that will be the case. However there is a second round of votes that will implement the reforms and that must be voted on before the EU meets July 3 which is a Sunday.
This second round is not believed to be easy and a no vote will stop the whole project. If the voting takes place next Saturday the market can react first Monday the 4th.

On Monday June 27 all indexes I follow in this blog will have sell signals on the weekly charts except for Dow30 which is very close to sell signal. Indexes with sell signals are IBEX, FTSE100, Swe30I, CAC40, S&P500 and DAX.I. The definition of sell signal is that the 8 week MA has turned down and crossed the 21 week MA which also has turned down.

The combination of voting in Greece and the sell signals might get the markets volatile.


IBEX and FTSE still in downtrend SP500 and Swed30 close to sellsignals as well.

The weekly index charts ended the volatile week more or less unchanged. IBEX and FTSE still have sell signals and in the beginning of week June 30, the first U.S. chart, SP500 might get a weekly sell signal together with the Swedish index Swed30. Dow and DAX still lack sell signals.

The sell signals occur when the 8 week MA crosses the 21 week MA on downside and both MA:s have turned down. A Bear market signal comes when the 8 months MA is close to or have turned down.

The indexes can move sideways during the whole summer but also start falling quite soon. This blog aims to give warnings before a bear market starts. The timing is crucial and sometimes difficult to predict. And there is no guarantee that the blog will be totally correct. I am using my tools the way they have worked before earlier breakdowns and the toolbox does not only include moving averages MA, but many more observations technically and fundamentally. At this early stadium the blog only shows the main tools MA:s as the big reference. Daily moves up and down will not be commented unless there is something that could effect the big trend. That means that I only will write when there is a new factor to the big trend.


The immediate downtrend halted by heavy short covering.

All indexes changed trend to up in the U.S and Europe. So far only the 2 hours trend is up but this can signal further strength. Most of the markets were heavily oversold and the indexes rose mainly on short covering, first wave came in Asia and Europe and later a second wave in the U.S. The new trend was still strong at close in Europe. The two indexes which have sell signals performed like this today. IBEX has broken the big triangle this week and last week on downside but today the market followed the Dow up to close above the falling 8 days MA. I see the performance as a technical correction but the index can move higher. Today's close was 10.126 and the real resistance starts at 10.329. FTSE 100  closed at 5.813 and resistance will come in at around 5.902.

S&P500 index in the U.S. has not got a long term sell signal yet. The new 2 hour uptrend is now in place and the aim was probably first to close a gap at 1.288. Today's top was 1.292 and the last hour profit taking  took the index to close at 1.288 which is above the falling 8 day MA.

Today's move was expected because of the last hours trading in New York on Monday with an upside spike on the one hour chart. There is no change in the long trend so far.


English FTSE 100 and Spanish IBEX 35 got sellsignals at close on Friday


FTSE 100 and IBEX 35 got strong technical sell signals on close Friday, June 10. Both indices have now got a downside cross of the 8 weeks moving average (MA) and the 21 weeks MA and both MA:s have turned down. IBEX has also broken a 28 month triangle on the downside indicating the possibility of a drop from current 9.540 to the 5.000 area that is a 50 percent correction. However the weekly close occurred at or just above the triangle line. That means the first trading sessions of the week June 13 should be watched for complete confirmation. A jump back into the triangle only means that it will take a little more time before a clear penetration occurs since the falling MA:s will force the market down sooner rather than later.

Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 indexes has not got a weekly MA sellsignal yet but the weekly key  reversal last week signals that it might come within two weeks. Next week could be violent with a short covering rally up to the falling 8 weeks MA and above. If this occurs it will likely come down again quite quickly because the smart money will sell. Germany Dax is in the same situation.

ADVICE: Sell FTSE and IBEX and watch Dow and SP500.


First warning of a possible dangerous fall in the stock markets

The International Stock market indices are topping out.

The bull market that started in April 2009 might have reached its peak. The side ways trend the last several months seems to break on downside. The Spanish IBEX 35 and the English FTSE 100 are very close to a long term sell signals. The Dow Jones Industrial index and Standard & Poors 500 index have got a weekly key reversal to the downside in the weekly chart pointing to the possibility of a downward trend.

What now is happening could lead to a new bear market quite fast.

This blog will follow the markets at least until we know for sure what will happen