Debt crisis: Germany caves in over bond buying, bank aid after Italy and Spain threaten to block 'everything'


EURO and main indexes rally in Asia.

At CET 03.00 the EURO, DOW, SP500 suddenly rallied in Asia and that rally is still going on at 08.00 when DAX opened with a big gap.
The news from early this morning from the EU meeting were bad, not good in my opinion. Yes the Italian and Spanish banks will get help directly from EU but the enormous difference of opinions between the main countries shows that EU will have great difficulties to do anything  to help the euro now in a longer perspective.  Anyway the short term trend is still up. The question is when Europe and the US opens this last trading day of the month and on a Friday how the traders will see this night meeting in Brussels. No big trend has changed. To me it looks like a short covering rally that soon will stop.


All indexes are moving sideways for the fifth day

The daily trends 8 MA's are down but the 21 MA's trends are up. The markets are moving within these these lines up and down with no big change awaited until EU has had its two day summit which starts today at CET 15.00 and ends Friday.
Today the DOW and SP500 have hit the top of the range and are now testing the bottoms.

So far after 2 hours trading in Europe the only thing worth mentioning is that the EURO has taken a new intraday low at 1.2406. The last support before a test of the crucial 2010 low lies at 1.2287. If this point is broken the the Euro could be in for a possible big drop.


DOW breaks 12.559.8, first target seems to be 12.447

BRICs Biggest Currency Depreciation Since 1998 To Worsen


DOW outlook now

The big picture is that the DOW hit a 2012 high May 1 at 13.279.5. From there it fell 5 waves to a low at 12.094. From there a 3 wave correction started to a high of 12.833.5.
Last Thursday the correction ended with a sharp fall to 12.559.8. Friday a small uptick to 12.651. This morning in Asia the DOW falls down to test the low at 12.559.8 again. A break could fail and then we will have a new run on upside. However I think 12.559.8 will be taken out within a few days and then the target could be the 12.094. I also think this could take several days.

The monthly trend is up, the weekly trend is down and the daily trend is sideways to up and the 2 hour trend is down. That means that my call is not written in stone yet but this is what I think right now.


Leaders Vow to Defend Euro, but Hint at Rifts on How


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Why did I post the Astrology site on my blog.

If you have read my other blog - What do I reflect upon now - http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com.es/ - from the start you know that I believe that anything that can be measured if put in a chart and becomes a curve will show that the chart looks like any other chart whatever it is. DOW's monthly chart between 1973 and 1980 looks exactly the same as the chart of my daily weight during 3 years. A one minute chart for the dollar against the yen during 2 hours two weeks ago has exactly the same pattern as a chart of my daily emails sending times during 6 weeks.
I have studied this for 29 years and my conclusion is. Whatever you measure and make a chart of it will look the same as any other chart at a certain period. To me this is a fact. So when I see a curve I can often predict what the next movement will be because I have seen this curve pattern hundred of times in different charts. It does not matter if it is a one minute chart, 2 hours, daily, weekly or monthly.

My world economic charts tells me of a strong possibility of a depression and maybe even a Great depression coming. When I happened to see this article about 2012 - 2015 where 1.200 astrologers see the same thing coming I just wanted to share it with you.

Uranus Square Pluto: What's the Fuss? Get the scoop on the biggest Astrology event of the year(s)



DOW opened on Wall Street on the upside with the now rising 2 hr 8 MA as support approaching the 2 hr 21 falling MA as resistance. I am just going to watch the US now and then but write a blog before European opening on Monday

DOW suddenly turned down. Todays high is 12.629 and low 12.572. Now trading 12.593.

Gold is down and weekly support close in danger.

Gold daily and weekly trends are down. The only support gold has is the rising 21 month MA now at 1.568.18 and the big triangle bottom at 1.522.46. I don't think gold will fall through in the US today but it is worth remembering that Gold, Silver and Oil are close to a break down.

Gold's today's low is 1.559.18 now trading in thin market at 1.568.

DOW seems to have reached a bottom after Thursdays sharp drop

The 30 min and 1 hour charts are up but the 2 hour sideways. Very small movements in Europe as well with low turn over. Many European countries are celebrating Midsummer Eve today. Awaiting US open.

Silver is also in a very risky situation right now

Silver has taken a five week low today at 26.60. The bottom of the long triangle is at 26.03. A break of that level could send silver very much lower. Gold is also down but not in a crucial situation right now.

OIL can be in for a very sharp drop from now.

The most interesting chart right now is the OIL chart. The weekly trend is approaching the last support at 74.95 from August 2011. Now trading 78.15. If the low is taken out a drop down to the 37 area could be the technical target.

All main indexes fell sharply Thursday

The very big drop Thursday by all main indexes plus the fall in the EURO, GOLD and OIL opens for a crucial situation starting today but it looks like the main new situation will be played out next week. So far before opening in Europe not much has happened. During the weekend I will try to make a forecast what is most likely to happen.


Spanish banks need up to 62 billion euros

I recommend this story from CNN because it gives a quick over sight what is happening right now in the heart of Europe's economy. I want you to note what is said about Italy, probably a soon starting fire ( my comment)


US 10 year note now got its first confirmed daily downtrend started

Tuesday close the 8 day MA has crossed the falling 21 day MA. The R point is now 134.050 - 134.085. The low was yesterday 132.27. Now trading at 133.020. Intervention by Fed could occur but the technical picture shows a clear sell signal for the 10 year note.

DOW has now got a 2 day close below important R point at 12.839.6 and the 2 hr trend is now down, currently at 12.776. It is 7 minutes left to Europe opening. There is a possibility that the high daily close has been seen for DOW's current rally.


Gold, Silver, Oil, Santander and EURO

Gold is holding within its 12 month triangle with no sign of break out up or down, Currently at 1.629.
Silver at 28.80, very small movements the last two months. No sign here of breaking out of long term triangle either.
Nymex Oil futures at 83.00 now. 13 days sideways. No sign of breaking further down yet.
Santander, Europe's biggest bank, situated in Spain, at 4.70. Has not taken new lows for 15 days. Moving slowly sideways. No sign of further immediate decline.

EURO's daily trend is still up but has lost momentum. It has tried several times to take back very very strong daily closing R point at 1.2666.4 without success.

Want to show you a long  chart of EUR/USD from 1985 until today. 1972 low was 0.58 and  2008 all time high was 1.5787. I think the 2008 top was the final top of a five wave move. During 4 years it has been pressure to push the Euro down substantially without success. We are now working up and down 1.26 level as I said above. Should the Euro break the low since 2008 there might be a very sharp drop. That will probably start a world economic catastrophic. We are not yet there but not far away either. That is why I think it is very important to follow the Euro know.

All main indexes daily trends are still up.

Dow currently at 12.750 after small movements in Asia. 2 hr trend is sideways. No clear direction.

SP500 is at 1.346 just above Monday's close. 2 hr trend is sideways with no clear direction,

FTSE now at 5.502 just above Monday close as well. 2 hour trend sideways.

DAX just opened at 6,250 and is in the same situation as DOW, SP500 and FTSE.

No special news during night. Europe opens in 40 minutes. 


European Leaders to Present Plan to Quell the Crisis Quickly


Greece election: pro-bailout right to attempt coalition


Iran's Ahmadinejad to leave politics, newspaper reports


Hollande party wins majority in French parliament


Euro bailout firewall not big enough


Greek People 'Have Voted For The Euro'



Britain Is Outside Euro Zone but Not Euro Crisis



DOW trend still up together with most main indexes today.

All indexes are still following the Dow and the daily trends are still up. Dow is evidently trying to get the weekly close above the very important closing R point at 12.714. The weekly high at 12.755 has not been taken intraday yet and the 2 hour trend is losing momentum on upside. I see the weekly close at CET 22.00 as very important to make a credible forecast for next week.


Merkel rejects "miracle solutions," Spain debt costs soar


Chancellor Merkel Says Germany Will Lead Crisis Fight


Spain's borrowing costs at fresh high after Moody's cut


All indexes have moved sideways for five days without clear direction

The daily 8 MA's has turned up and crossed the sideways to down moving 21 day MA's. The falling 34 and 50 days MA's are giving strong resistance and the turnover are low in the big markets. Technically the daily trends are now up and a trial of the weeks highs could come on positive news. On the other hand the R points are very strong and if a rally would come today I think the movement could be strong. See about the US 10 year note below.

Every market in the world seems focused on the Greek election on Sunday. The Euro moves slowly up but has a very strong R point to take out. Gold is holding up and Oil has stopped taking new lows. The US 10 year notes is the only item that moves with long weekly swings and is now very close to a daily downtrend which could start very soon. Watch up for that.


In Europe, Banks Borrowing to Stay Ahead of the Tide


EU's Spain bank rescue may bring only brief respite


US 10 year notes open with a very big gap on downside at a low of 132.18. Daily trend is down. German Schatz trading sideways for the fourth day with the daily trend down

Europe's all indexes open with very big gaps as well. Most of the tops has reached very important R points. To early to tell next move.

DOW jump start Monday trading in Asia with a high of 12.755.2

A very high gap from Friday close at 12.554.2 which must be closed quite soon. Last five hours sideways. Europe opens i 2 minutes.

The daily and hourly trends are up


Europe works on new euro zone bond plan: report


Spain seeks $125 billion in EU aid for banks



Reagan Was a Keynesian

Very good article about US economy in perspective. Read the comments as well and you have the current debate on the economy in the U.S. which is so important when we just now concentrate on Spain and Europe.


Inflation Slows in China as the Economy Continues to Weaken


Pressed to Take Bailout, Spain Tries to Measure Its Need


Spanish Banks Need $46 Billion, I.M.F. Says in Audit



NO Sell signal at 14.00.

All indexes are moving exactly in the same pattern right now. 2 hour trends are sideways but a buy or sell signal could come later in the day.

DOW might get a sell signal at CET 14:00

The DOW now. Daily chart

This is a daily line chart for DOW up to now. The dots are the closing points.
You see the "break down" horizontal line at 12.362.1. After the break down a three day consolidation at the target and then the rally on upside touching but not cross the falling 21 MA. You see that the blue 8 MA is below the line and still falling.

I think the rally on upside is over and that the trend is slowly turning down. No clear technical signs yet on the small charts what will happen. My guess is that the a drop will come today or Monday back to the lowest close. But not sure. US news is always a dark horse. Just wait and follow the 30 min chart and 2 hours now.

Merkel urges 'political' union, Spain rating slashed


SP500, DOW and DAX unable to hold strength.

SP500 closed below first R point at 1.314.99, after last hour selling in New York. Daily trend still down and 2 hr is sideways. Could break on downside tomorrow.

DOW, the same thing as SP500 and the close at 12.460.96.

DAX falls all the way to the days bottom after having put a foot at the break down line. Retest is over.

In ASIA at 02: 25 small movements around the close.


Indexes and bonds have difficulties to go higher in Europe

SP500, DOW and the DAX seems to have difficulties to get above and hold first R at 1.319.59, 12.488.3 and 6.220.46. Trends sideways.

US 10 year notes and German Schatz seems to have reached their final tops at 135.290 and 110.840. The Schatz'es now at 110.65 and the daily 8 MA has turned down. The notes now trading at 134.050.

The rallies June 7 by the main indexes seems to be just a bull trap.

DOW will not show strength until 12.488.3 and 12.611 is taken out. SP500 must take out1.319.59 and 1.334.71 to convince me that strength has returned to the index.
Any hesitation to take these levels could be the beginning of a turning point down again. DAX need to take out 6.220.46 to show the first sign of strength.

I see the rally so far as an oversold correction with intervention in the US by short covering big traders. Today and Friday will show how strong the indexes really are.
FTSE has been closed Monday and Tuesday and Wednesdays close does not give enough information what will be next this week.

Spain Holds a Trump Card in Bank Bailout Talks



Spain says credit markets closing its doors, G7 takes no action


DOW rally since Monday finally seems to give up. 2 hr trend is now down


DOW got support from 2 hr trends MA which has turned up so further move on upside is possible now

10 year notes may have peaked

The final high could have been the high Friday at 135.29. Now trading at 134.30. German Schatz have moved sideways at top for 4 days.

DOW tries on upside first 20 min to top 1,282.11 then moves on downside eventually to test today's low at 1.262.85

Euro Zone Is Lurching to a Crossroad


Cameron: budget errors left government 'ploughing into brick wall'


Leaked documents reveal UK fight to dilute EU green energy targets


NAS is testing breakout point from below. DOW, SP500 and DAX hover around Friday US close. Very quiet.

Stocks in Asia Fall Amid Worries About Global Economy


Expert Issues a Cyberwar Warning

This story has nothing to do do with the stock markets but gives us  a very good oversight of Cyberwar


With the biggest marketplace - the UK - closed, Europe indexes hardly moves so far

SWED has opened at new low 945. R now at 955.41

UK is closed today. DOW is just above its target and DAX has got below target 5.999. Europe will open in 10 minutes.

DOW has reached my target 12.000 and is now moving on upside.

CET 01:00 hourly close for Dow and SP500 at 12.018.4 and 1.265.86. Very sharp fall during first hour of the week.

DOW and SP500 falls steeply on CFD opening at 00.00. After 20 minutes trading DOW is at 12.060.4 and SP500 at 1.269.3. DOW and SP500 closed Friday at bottom 12.114.4 and 1.277.15


Merkel Rejects Debt Sharing as Obama Urges Europe to Do More


Three Months to Save the Euro: George Soros


In Economic Deluge, a World That’s Unable to Bail Together

This is a MUST read article from NY Times.


About the breakdowns of DOW, DAX, SP500 and SWED plus FTSE which has not broken

FTSE and SWED were already down graded by me to bear markets before Friday. I also said  Friday morning that a break down could happen any day from now. I did not expect it to happen the same day.
I think this is the beginning of the big broad bear market I have blogged about for some time. The technical picture tells me that the downtrend from May 2 - the day after the DOW's top - have now started the third wave down. A third wave use to be the longest of the waves. This break happened just a few hours before Friday close so no one seems to have observed it yet. I might be the only analyst who has. Monday will be very exiting and I look forward to the DOW and SP500 trading at 00.00, FTSE starts 02.00, DAX starts 08.00 and Europe opens at 09.00.

I believe we will see action already in Asia and definitely in Europe. I do not know what will happen but this situation reminds me when I followed the market live October 17, 1987 waiting for a reaction the next trading day. Then  a so called Black Monday happened with enormous selling. That is why I said in my blog Friday that this could happen now. I have not said it will happen.
I will be watching Asia opening and report what I see during the first hours.

When it comes to the targets I have for the trends I have used my usual mathematical counting  in situations like this. They used to be correct. Observe these targets are only for the first move in this long downtrend I think will come so do not take them for a for the end. Often a correction use to start around these points and a move on upside but I have never during 30 years seen a reverse of a break like the one which happened Friday night.

FTSE and SWED Friday close. FTSE has not broken the low but SWED has done that. FTSE chart above, Swed chart below. If broken FTSE target will be 5.038 and SWED 903

DAX and SP500 daily charts Friday.

Above is DAX and below SP500. Target in this first move for SP500 is the horizontal line at 1.244.21 which I expect will be reached within next week.

The DOW daily chart Friday. The third big wave starts on downside

DOW, SP500 and DAX break down Friday make me believe the bear market may have started

The Big Bear market has now started June 1, 2012 CET 10.45 with a break of the DOW's last support at 12.307. DOW reached the 2012 high May 1, at 13.337. DOW closed Friday June 1, at 12.114.4. The target for this first move is 12.002 which will be reached very soon. SP500 and Germany DAX close in NY at the same time as the DOW has also broken the critical support and closed down with target for SP500 at 1.243.33 and DAX 5.999.

Bailout of Bankrupt Spanish Banks Proving Impossible



Greek Leftist Challenges Europe on Austerity

Copy and paste NY times good story


Worst U.S. Job Data in a Year Signals Stalling Recovery


Warning European indexes might get a "BLACK MONDAY". Europe is closing in 45 minutes and there is a big chance that this could happen

SWED has now broken on downside at 955 with a target of 903

FTSE still holding above break down point at 5.227.13. Now at 5.247. When the trends breaks on downside - which I think will happen today or Monday - the target will be 5.038

SP500 has broken down now with a target of 1,244. Now trading 1.285

DAX exact target is 5.999

DOW exact first target is 12.007

DOW and DAX are in the new downward trend to their targets

DAX has also as DOW broken on downside which could be the start of something ugly.

This is a severe long term break for DAX, now trading 6.094 with resistance and breaking point at 6.220 which can be retested. First target is 6.020.


DOW has now broken very important support at 12.334. Target for this trend is 12.075. Now trading 12.276. Eventually can a retest of 12.334 occur if the US big news at 14.30 are better than expected.

The next long big trend for all indexes.

Latest July 7, I think now that we will know where the next big European trend will go and maybe also the US indexes trend. The answer can come any day from now on.
FTSE will probably be the leader to show what will happen. I think that the high was set May 1 and will not be revisited for many years. Now is the question when will a big down trend start.
I will follow this development and publish my findings every day until it happens.