DAX, FTSE and SWED daily from Feb 9 - Aug 30, in that order. Compare with the DOW in the blog below.

Dow closed Thursday at 13.003.9.Tomorrow Friday is the last day of the month and week. Very important trading day's closes for longer trends.

Dow daily chart since Feb 9 until today. Most important is the blue 8 MA that has crossed the 21 MA on downside making the trend a daily downtrend. Compare the tops to the left and see what happened when a cross on downside occurred earlier this year. Bernanke's speech will start at CET 16.00. That is what many traders have been waiting for. The market can move strongly on up or down.

The technical pictures of DOW here and DAX, FTSE, SWED, SP500 and NAS above indicates that the tops have been reached.


The main indexes daily trend is now down and very important news is coming up from the US.

Today Wednesday and CET 14.30 GDP figures for 2nd Q is expected to come in at 1.7 percent. Preliminary number was 1.5
On Friday the so called Jackson hole speech from Bernanke is expected to give a clue about Fed action or not soon to stimulate the economy.
These two news can both change the markets up or down.

DOW's 8 day MA has been down since last Monday close and a cross with the rising 21 MA could occur already tomorrow unless a strong rally starts after the news. SP500 is now locked between the two MA's and can go both ways easily depending on the news. NAS is moving sideways.

SWED is already in a daily downtrend since Monday and FTSE is very close to a cross between the MA's. DAX is in the same situation as SP500.

I expect the markets to react today or latest after Bernanke's speech next Friday to give information how serious or not the world markets trends are just now.


DOW opens with a new daily low in the US making the 1 hour chart change direction to down

Europe trading for 6 hours has lifted the main indexes to new daily highs with the 2 hour trends firmly up. US will open in 40 minutes high above Fridays close. With London closed the turnover has been low. Now it is up to the US to decide if we are going to test the highs or not.

The Shanghai Composite fell 1% and is headed for its lowest close since February 2009 after China’s statistics bureau reported industrial profits fell for the fourth consecutive month. (Bloomberg)

SWED has just opened with the daily trend down.

SWED and FTSE use to show the way for a big trend change. FTSE is closed today. SWED's daily trend is now down with falling 8 and 21 daily MA's and a cross on downside. This indicates to me a strong possibility that this will happen to all indexes this week, may be already today or tomorrow.

Today Monday August 27 could be the turning day down for all indexes. The daily trends which has been up since June 5, could today be put in place for the beginning of a long downtrend or rally to take new highs.

This is the most important day and week 2012. DOW, SP500 and NAS are exactly technically in a situation where the daily trend can change down or continue to new highs. DAX and most of the European indexes are also in this situation. From now and the rest of the week things will most certainly happen so WATCH UP.

London is closed today. Asia has traded the US indexes up from Fridays close but now the trends are testing the closes from above. Today's close on Wall Street will decide technically what will happen.

I will follow the markets all day and make short blogs.


SP00, NAS and DAX are the strongest indexes. DOW still have a chance to test the top two days ago.

So far there is no attempt by DOW to rally to test the top at 13.330.7. DOW is holding close to the slowly rising 8 day MA now at 13.216 supported below of the rising 21 day MA. Safety first has been the rule so far the last two days after the rally. The 2 hour trend is up and will get stronger during the day so a rally might come today. If not time will start to run out for a test of the top in the beginning of next week.

SP500 and NAS looks better to start a rally at anytime. This is the big traders markets now and anything could happen to the upside until next Tuesday. They all want to get short positions as high as possible.

DAX is strongest in Europe following the daily uptrend. FTSE is weakest, now locked for the second day below its falling daily 8 MA and rising 21 MA.

The EURO, OIL GOLD and SILVER are all in very strong up trends with new highs the last five days, including today in Asia. Current prices are Euro 1.2540, OIL 97.99, GOLD 1.664.55 and SILVER 30.37.


Many technical important things happened Tuesday. From now WATCH UP.

Most important technical change is that the EURO got a daily buy signal with 8,21 and 34 MA:s turning up making a definite bottom in the 1.2300 area. This bottom trend will get stronger by the day. This trend change suggests there will not be any Euro collapse for a long time. How high the EURO might go is not relevant at present only the fact that a perfect bottom has been created. The Euro itself rallied to a 34 day high close at 1.2471.

Second change is that GOLD and SILVER weekly trends broke on upside taking  15 and 11 weeks high at 1.641.19 and 29.49. CRUDE OIL is still in a strong weekly uptrend.

Thirdly the U.S. stock indices NAS and SP500 made new 2012 highs at 2.802.51 and 1.426.49. The DOW rose to 13.330.7 just 7 points short of a new high. The important thing however was the US close of the indexes at the bottom of the days range raising the question if the DOW has made a KEY reversal - which means a final intraday top of the long uptrend. These indexes daily trends are still up or sideways and the important 2 hour trends are down. Today's trading in Asia so far is just a little bit lower than the closes. The rest of the week will be very interesting and we will probably get the answers latest by next Tuesday if a trend change is on its way.


The Euro is finally in a daily uptrend with a last resistance at 1.2442.3 before a more powerful break up.

FTSE with daily and weekly chart until now

FTSE 2012 top in the middle. To the left 2011 top area. Click to get bigger picture. The waves from the last bottom in May is a five wave run and these 10 sideways closes could be the end. However a quick three wave run higher - extension of a five way movement - is always possible. I still think the FTSE will show the way for all indexes when the downturn starts. FTSE have the Monthly trend sideways, Weekly is up and the Daily trend is sideways.

This weekly chart shows that we are working on the last bar and it is only Tuesday. The close will come on Friday on this bar. A close at the same point as the first bar, will give a top formation that use to be a usual sign of a weekly top formation.
However it is too early to expect that this early in the week.

DOW jumps to a new 3 months high at 13.292. Chart below is 90 days DOW until now.

To the left is the 2012 high with a day close at 13.337.5 - a natural R point - and the intraday high of 13.337.5. My OA target is at 13.425. OA is the picture top shown earlier in the blog.

The R-points up to the intraday high 13.337,5 are 13.300.7, 13.304.5, 13.229.6, 13.329.6 and 13.337.5.

Germany backs Draghi bond plan against Bundesbank


All indexes move still very slowly with small ranges.

DOW has only moved 18 points in Asia and SP500 2 points on Tuesday. The 3 day sideways trend continues. The Monthly, weekly and daily trends are all up. Dow's 2 hour trend is now sideways to down. To make a forecast where the stock markets are going now is not possible.

However no index has taken out the intraday high for 2012. The markets are very overbought and I guess we can continue moving sideways a while but my feeling is that a correction could come anytime. We are still in the middle of August and many players are on vacation. I am still trying to find weakness in the up trends but so far I only have the 2 hour trends moving sideways.


DOW, SP500, DAX and FTSE weekly chart 2007 - Aug 17, 2012. In that order from above

The powerful uptrend closed on high on all indexes. DOW and SP500 are the only indexes to take a new weekly closing high. However the intraday tops has not been taken yet. The trading all over the world is very thin and slow. But the chart look very strong for continued uptrend. However there are many resistance points to clear. The big trends, Month, Week and Day are all up and so are the hourly trends. I will continue to look for weaknesses in the up trends.


The first sign of a possible bear market in all indexes is signaled by FTSE

FTSE must close the month of August above 5.937 otherwise the 21 month MA will turn down. A monthly close below 5.702 will make the technical picture of FTSE a bear market. FTSE monthly high for August is 5.876.75. Now trading at 5.821. The daily trend is on the verge to turn down today or tomorrow because the 2 hour trend is down with a broken support.

Maybe this is the first sign of stop for all indexes up trend. And also the beginning of a very long term downtrend. FTSE has many times been the first index to show a change in the very long term trend.

FTSE is the first index that will see the 8 day MA turn down. FTSE use to be first in bigger trends

Pre-war Germany has blueprint to end debt crisis


10_YEAR notes daily chart now. The yield chart is from Big charts and is shown below, monthly.

This is a chart of the price of the notes and is traded 24 hours. When the price falls the yield goes up. This is the third wave down from the top and my target is 129'385. In yield this means about 0,80 % rise.

10 year notes takes new low at 132'050. Big drop expected with target 129'385. Yields is rising above 1.84 on close Wednesday.

Here is 10 YEAR notes yield from 2008 monthly chart.

Asian markets are selling 10 year notes for the third day in a row and the technical target now seems to be 129'385 a very big drop. When the price falls the  yield will go up on the notes. This use to affect all interest rates. The 4 year chart however shows the yield in a monthly bear market so it is difficult to tell the impact of current yield rise. Target seems to be around 2.20 percent.


10 year notes new low again at 132'21.0. Support is at 132'17.7

10 year bonds take new low at 132'22.5

US 10 year notes have broken important support point at 132'270. Low so far is 132'235. Now trading 132'285. Daily and 2 hour trends are down

The break on downside is very important because since the high at July 24 the downtrend has now started a fifth wave which indicates that this might become serious. A fifth wave down in a long bull market indicates the beginning of a bear market. 

DOW's hourly close sideways trend continues.

Here is the DOW's  one hour line trend holding between the horizontal lines on the chart. This short trend changes quickly as you can see. The trend has been stopped 4 times by the top line. There is no clear sign how the trend will continue today. The daily trend  is still up but could easily be turned down on a drop to the lower line. A new wait and see day has started.

Spanish Banks Lean Heavily on the ECB



SP500 has taken new daily high today at 1,409.38.

Now trading 1.407.63.  Resistance is at 1.415.10 and 1.426.23 is the top of the wave according to my special picture I described August 10. Since the trend picture I described has no name I will call it OA picture in the future, my initials.

The OA picture is of a certain pattern in a chart that easiest can be seen on a line chart. It starts with a rally, then comes three tops with higher and higher bottoms and finally a new rally that use to go the same length as the first rally. When the trend is finished - it can stop earlier than the same length - the new trend will take it back to the start of the first rally. This trend picture does not come often but it must be watched carefully. This can become an OA picture. Here comes the picture of SP500 daily trend:

DOW closed Monday at 13.168.5. Asia has taken the index higher, now at 13.201 and still within the sideways trend. Daily, 2 hours and 1 hour trends are still up. R lies at 13.219.8 and 13.226.3.

This is DOW 2 hour bar chart for the last 8 days.  Now trying upside.


The Dow was not far from the top when the turn around occur. So now we watch the possibility to break on downside. This is exactly the way the index has behaved for six days. But one day it will break on up or downside. If it comes today or tomorrow we do not know. But we know that a new high or a new low could move the market substantially higher or lower

The DOW did not reach the top and suddenly dived when NYSE opened. Now the falling trend has S at 13.091 and 13.067.5 as support points. An intraday dip below the last support can start a more aggressive sell off

DOW takes a new daily high at 13.212.8 intraday. R is the six days top at 13.226.3 and 12.337.5 The 1 and 2 hour trends are up.

DOW made a sudden powerful rally the last hour on Friday to close up at 13.203 just below an important R point. First hours in Asia the index tried to move higher but could not get above the daily close. Japan got worse economic numbers and the DOW fell to a low of 13.169. There it has been moving sideways for a couple of hours. All big trends are up and the 2 hour trend as well. However the picture now looks like the 1 hour trend could turn down soon and the 2 hour trend might turn down as well later during Europe trading. R is at 13.205 and S is at 13.166 and 13.143.5

Here is DOW's one hour trend closing points in a line chart which has moved sideways several days. The horizontal line at the bottom 13.092.2 and the top 13.211.3 will sooner or later be broken on upside or downside with an hourly close. I think that break out will show the next bigger move's direction.


Debt crisis: ECB buying Spanish and Italian debt 'makes no sense' says Belgian bank governor



SP500 looks like DOW with a first S point at 1.393.75, second at 1.390.80 and last S point before a bigger drop is at 1,390.80. The downside looks more likely than the upside today. Now trading at 1.397.

It is important to know that if the US indexes open lower in New York there often is a rally up to around yesterdays close to take out earlier short positions and then sell themselves at the top and then go back down.

NYSE opens down breaking S point 13.111.7. Target seems to be very important S point 13.091.

After 19 minutes the low has been 13.094. Now trading at 13.100. The 2 hour MA's are all down. 8, 21 and 34 periods and all crosses are in place. Interesting opening in the U.S. If 13.091 is taken out the last S point is 13.067.2 before a bigger drop.

DOW has now broken first support at 13.122.6. This point might be retested from below. The next S is at 13.091. A break of that point might start a more serious drop.

DOW closed Thursday at 13.181.9. Asia has traded the index down to a low of 13.124.2. Now at 13.140. The 2 hr trend is down but even a small rally could change this trend to sideways. Now very small movements. Europe opens in 30 minutes. Support at 13.122.6 and resistance at 13.181.9.

The daily uptrend is still losing momentum. Today is the 5th day for the daily bars to move sideways but the daily, weekly and monthly MA's are up. Market is still in overbought territory and a correction is due but I do not know when it will come. As I have said many times a drop can come quickly. The longer the sideways trend goes on the more likely it is that the expected drop can affect the rising daily uptrend when it starts. Still waiting and watching for all signs of weakness in this big bull trend.

I want to add that the technical daily trend looks very much like a picture that use to move down to the bottom once it have started, in this case 12.000. This is my personal thoughts that I have had for some time. In a scenario like that the DOW could take the 2012 top first and then start this downtrend but it could also start from current level. This picture has no name and occurs not often. The last time I saw this picture was the monthly uptrend from March 2003 to October 2007. That was the road up to the all time high. Do not take this too serious right now. I might come back to this later.
This chart picture occurs on all time levels the same way. Looking at DOW's daily chart the trend starts June 5 with a three waves rally on upside. Then comes a correction and 2 more tops with higher and higher bottoms.Finally a new rally starts July 25 in three waves which use to be of the same length as the first rally. That top use to be the final end. During 2006 - 2007 I followed that up move and that paid of because I could pinpoint the 2007 top and tell that the target of the coming downtrend will be below 7.000.


Santander, Spain, Europes biggest bank takes a new 16 week high. Has rallied from 3.98 to 5.40 or 36 percent in 3 weeks

DAX opened with a rally to top above 7.000 but sellers rushed in and now trading 6.962.

DOW rally stopped and 2 hr chart closed down at CET 08:00 at 13.204.8. Now trading 13.198 after Europe opened 25 minutes ago.

DOW has taken a new weekly high at 13.226.3. The 2012 high at 13.337.5 could be this trends target today or later.

SP500 same pattern as the DOW. FTSE has taken a new weekly high at 5.865 and the first R point is at 5.905.75 which is April 2, high.

DOW closed Wednesday at 13.173.1. After good China news the index has rallied for 5 hours and is now very close to the weeks high which is at 13.214.5. The 2 hour trend is up and first R point is the high and then 13.222.


SP500 rally could also be a bull trap to get the big players good shorting positions. Everything is open as I have said.

SP500 rally top so far is 1.403.62. This is first R point. Now trading 1.402.86. Trading seems to be made only by computers at present so everything can happen.

SP500's rally got R point at 1.406.88. If taken next R point is 1,415.10. Technically this trend can reach 1.426.23 intraday today or later.

SP500 breaks on upside with target 1.406.88, yesterdays high.

SP500 is very close to a break up or break down.

R lies at 1.399.25. High so far is 1.399.65 but last 30 min close came in at 1.398.68. Trend MA:s are mixed or sideways. Very interesting fight between bulls and bears.

Wall Street has opened 36 min ago. The 2 hour MA's are still moving sideways for the DOW and SP500. A break out on up or downside should occur soon.

EURO 10 day rally might have reached peak at 1.2442. The 2 hour trend is now down. Currently trading at 1.2370.

The Euro has got support points at 1.2360.9, 1.2340.9 and 1.2165.8. Resistance points at 1.2401.5 and 1.2430.1.

ECB might intervene if the drop goes to far. The EURO low came July 24 at 1.2041.3. This is my personal take on their actions. I think ECB started to buy just before the bottom and accelerated buying until the short covering started and then sold at the top. The August 2 correction down to 1.2147 was bought by ECB to get a new high which came last Monday. I think they have sold again at the top and are waiting for the market to fall before next intervention. ECB has very good traders and analysts and I believe they just want to protect the bottom not get a big trend reversal. This is my opinion. Because of this my advice is that trading the euro is not for investors, only for day trading professionals.

However this does not take away the euros main reason for me to watch it because it tells a lot about the stock markets coming performance and will always do.

DOW and SP500 get more and more overbought by the day

Both indexes are losing momentum on upside. They follow each other exactly. DOW's R point on a daily close is 13.280. Tuesday close was at 13.164.9 and the 2 hour trend is now sideways . Last trading was 13.137.

SP500 main R point on daily close is 1.405.81. Tuesdays close came in at 1.400.44. Main trends are up but the important 2 hour trend is sideways now trading at 1.397.

A correction must come soon. The indexes are very overbought and a drop could happen fast. The main uptrend will probably not change yet even if a drop occur. It is very difficult to predict the short term trend right now so I prefer to write about the main situation by day until something important happens to the strong uptrend's.


The Telegraph on German statistics

Downturn 'entrenched' in Germany amid poor eurozone PMI
Eurozone private sector activity contracted for the 10th time in 11 months in July, with data now consistently showing the downturn becoming "entrenched" in Germany, a key survey has showed.

ECB's market interventions

Lots have been speculated and written about what ECB can and will do. My own take from different media is the following.

1. ECB will intervene to support the Euro in open market without warning. I expect this to happen in the in the 1.2050 area where the first intervention I think happened at July 25.  ECB's Mr Draghi has said now that it will be "pointless to short the Euro from now on." - I believe strongly that the ECB can hold the Euro up. The Bundesbank in Germany has since 1983 been seen as the smartest currency trader.

2. Spain and Italy has not asked for help to hold interest rates down on their bonds. They both say they will not need money from the ECB. The German finance minister who met Mr Geithner  Sunday, have said he does not expect any money beside the 100.000 € for Spain's banks to be given out for bonds until earliest next year.

3. Interest rates has been on hold this week in the US, England and Europe.

My conclusions are that holding the Euro at current price or higher will stabilize the bond markets in Europe. Calm down speculations in the media and making daily updates of Spain's bond rates less interesting. The stock markets will concentrate more on economic fundamentals, demand and employment.

DOW rallied the last hour Thursday to close at 12.877.2. Asia has moved the index higher and tested resistance point at 12.902 three times on the 2 hr chart which trend still is down but could change to upside before CET 12.00. If Dow should choose the downside the last support before a test of Thursday's lows is at 12.868.5. The big news for the day is the US payrolls numbers at 14:30. Consensus is at 100.000 new jobs. A number above could take the index very high. If the number is far below a big drop can occur.


DAX and FTSE monthly chart 1992-2012, August 1. DAX is above.

Same big question as with DOW and SP500. Will the trend go up to the 2007 top now ? The answer is the difference. DAX and FTSE does not have a fifth wave and the 8 MA is below 21 MA and there is not cross yet for DAX. FTSE however seems to be in a worse situation. The 8 MA is not only below 21 MA it is also moving sideways. I see coming difficulties to make a cross on upside. To me it seems more likely that the 8 MA will turn down within 2 months and go into a falling market. Since all main indexes follow each other in a bull or a bear market and the chance of FTSE falling is bigger than DOW's chance of uptrend my conclusion must be that I expect the start of falling markets from mid August to mid October.

DOW and SP500 monthly 1992 - August 1, 2012. DOW above chart.

Here you see the main differences since 1992. From the all time high top 2007 until now these two indexes have performed more or less the same.The big question is if we they are going to test this high or top out and fall from here. DOW and SP500 both are in uptrends with the 8 and 21 MA rising. Look at the charts and see how these MA's have behaved since 1992. A bear market has always started with the 8 MA turning down and crossed the 21 MA. The immediate question is if the top to the left of today's price will be to high to take and that we are already starting to turn around.

Main indexes still very small movements. All big trends are up. 2 hr trend lines 8 and 21 MA's sideways with no sign of breaking out now.