SP500 rally now at 1.202.84

SP500 has closed small gap, on its way to 1.197.47

SP500 starts strong rally when Europe opens.. Will soon see if 2 hr 8 MA can stop other ways gap 1.194.40 possible target.

SP500 2hr chart new low close on top formation and 8 MA crosses 21 MA on downside.

SP500 retests broken 30 min chart closes 1.184.98 and 1.185.55. to get back above.

Euro powerful break on downside. Daily low close at 1.3236.6 seems to be the target.

Euro one hour chart close new low. Last support intraday low at 1.3284.7. Low so far 2 points above.

SP500 last support for one hour chart broken on close

SP500 clears resistance and now on its way down

SP500 get buyers at break point 1.187.22. New gap at 1.194:40. Very slow trading. Europe opens in one hour.

SP500 and the EURO got sell signals on 2 hour chart


All indexes have gaps at the bottom to cover. Quick turnaround down could happen

In the current uptrend only DAX and CAC have closed their gaps. All the other indexes have to go higher. DOW to at least 11.791.3, SP 1.214.72, FTSE 5.346.52, SWED 940.07, MIB 15.230.9 and IBEX 8.303.

The 2 hr up trends are in tact and a a gap cover could happen today or within the next few days. Some indexes may not be able to close their gaps before the markets tops out and the trend changes to down. Lots of news today in Europe and the U.S. so a sudden rally or drop is in the cards.

More important is the gaps that all indexes got at the bottom when the uptrend started. That means that when the top of this uptrend is in, there could  be quick falls down to these gaps. Here they are: DOW 11.240.6, SP500 1.159.40, DAX 5.456, FTSE 5.183.25, SWED 891.4, MIB 13.961, IBEX 7.761 and CAC 2.866.

I will follow trading in SP500 from now until US close and Asia opening and post messages as soon as I see something of importance.

Crisis in Europe Tightens Credit Across the Globe

Pressure mounts on Europe as finance ministers meet

SP500 breaks important 1.200 and peak at 1.206.69. Target is now 1.214.72 or higher

The two day uptrend finally has run into strong selling pressure

SP500 did early this morning test the crucial old resistance point 1.200.00 but were stopped just below at 1.199.64. The 2 hr chart uptrend is still in place and more tests could come during the day but the uptrend has lost its steam and and a down turn could also start. Now at 1.190. 34. It feels like the top has been seen.
A break above 1.200 would make the gap at 1.214.72 the target.

The Euro has topped at 1.3398 by the 8 day MA and is currently trading sideways. The very important  resistance point at 1.3384 must hold Wednesday close to keep the long downtrend in place. Now trading 1.3329. The 2 hr uptrend is still in place but right now the trend is sideways. I feel the Euro will close the month below 1.3384.


Crisis threatens EU sovereign ratings: Moody's

Germany, France press coercive euro zone debt rules


Interesting story from Reuters regarding the political situation and different solution to the debt crisis. It is said that speculators want the Euro down which supports my view that the Bundesbank  is watching and prepared to fight the speculators. I worked with the same situation in 1984.

Why the markets are up today

Last Friday there was a short covering rally in the Euro from the weeks low at 1.3211 up to 1.3296 within two hours before it fell back to close the week a 1.3236. Sunday the Euro opened at CET 18:00 - 7 hours before the SP500 - with a new and more powerful rally up to 1.3341. Accordingly the SP500 opened with big gap at 1.172.65 from Friday close at 1.154.40. The Euro and SP500 then went sideways until  Europe opened with heavy short covering pushing the Euro and SP500 to new highs 1.3398 and SP500 1.189.99.
Since then until now the trend has been sideways again possible waiting for the US to open.

SP500 has now closed its first gap at 1.186.69. The second gap is at 1.214.72.

Of course there is a planed intervention behind all of this. It could be be the ECB wanting the euro to stop falling or someone big player who saw this as a perfect way to change the stock markets to an upside trend.
ECB has the German Bundesbank which is a specialist on currency intervention since the 1970:s.

Time Runs Short for Europe to Resolve Debt Crisis


Where are the stock markets going now. Part 1 The EURO

The biggest question for all markets now is. How will the Euro perform ? It is a must to know now exactly how the Euro  moves. The Euro against the dollar is the biggest trading item in the world on turnover. Far bigger than all stock markets in the world taken together. No one can manipulate its trend more than for a very short time. Here is the trend 1971 until today. There are 5 waves and the euros long uptrend might soon be over. The low in March 1971 was 0.5387 and the peak in July 2008 was 1.6037.

Here is the last long wave wave  from 2000 until today. After the peak 3 years ago at 1.6037 there has been a three wave correction down to 1.1875 in June 2010. From there a five wave move up to 1.4939 in May 2011 which is the last peak in this chart. Since May we have had FIVE waves on downside if the Euro closes the month next Wednesday below 1.3384. I will come back to this if it happens.

This is the weekly chart. One bar is one week. Friday close was 1.3237, see the horizontal line. A break below 1.3142, the nearest low to the left, is very bearish. The technical picture of the weekly chart says that it will do this but not when. It could happen on Asia opening Monday or a two weeks later.

Finally the daily chart, every bar is a day. Here you can see exactly what it takes to make a new low. The trend can stop here and go sideways for four days and then move on upside or it can stay a couple of days and then drop to a new low. Everything is possible. The coming week will be crucial day by day.

Since the main fundamental question is the Euro crisis I believe myself that where the Euro goes the stock markets will go.

PART 2, The Stock indices.

The indexes looks more or less like the Euro daily chart above. The Spanish IBEX looks the worst with the 8 week MA down before crossing the 21 week falling MA.

This is what it looks like. More or less as the Euro week chart but here the MA is turning down just before it hits the 21 MA. This use to be a very bearish sign. There is no chance what so ever to get above this falling 8 MA for the next 8 weeks if the down fall should stop here. It also use to be a very power full "push further down" sign.

The Italian MIB and the French CAC will get their 8 MA down when the new week have started and they have a bit more to fall than IBEX. DAX, FTSE, SWED and the EURO can theoretically still avoid this situation another week or two. DOW and SP500 still have their  MA's on upside but they could turn sideways soon or down if a big drop happens.

Next Wednesday the falling 8 month MA:s will cross the 21 month MA and become definite bear markets for DAX and FTSE.  DOW, SP500 and the EURO will still only be bear markets, which theoretically can be reversed, but have their falling 8 MA:s down steeper after this last day of November.

Bailouts and Austerity Measures Aren't Working: Is This the Euro's Last Stand? Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2100210,00.html#ixzz1enhhZzo4

Bond market hammers Italy, Spain ponders outside help

MARKET EXTRA Archives | Email alerts Nov. 25, 2011, 10:59 a.m. EST Europe bond auctions present crucial test Italy, Belgium, France, Spain to sell up to $26B in bonds next week


SP500 maid a short rally for two hours and then fell back to where it started closing at a new low 11.154.39. First quick view on next week forecast tells me it does not look very good.

A complete analysis for the coming days will be published before trading starts in Asia next Sunday.

Have a nice weekend

SP500 and DOW starts powerful rally when Wall Street opens

Spain IBEX low daily 2011 close is 7.649.5. Now trading below at 7.607.5 as today's low. 2011 intraday low at 7.502.

Euro against dollar is trading at new daily low of 1.3307. Target for current downtrend seems to be a test of 2011 daily low close at 1.3174.4

SP500 is now trading at last daily resistance point 1.155.54. A daily close below this level opens the way down to 2011 lows. My technical target intraday for the downtrend is still 1.147. Wall Street will be open half day today. DOW, Nasdaq and Japanese NIK all trading at new lows.

SP500 closed Thursday at new low 1.160.57. At Friday opening in Asia all indexes fell to new lows. SP500 has so far reached a low of 1.154.52.


SP500 has made a rally from new low point reaching above Wednesday close at 1.161.96. Then going back to retest this level from above and it held so the small trend is now trying to move higher.

France, Germany, Italy won't give ECB orders

SP500 takes new weekly low at 1.160.20

All indexes upside rally trial got strong resistance at 2 hr chart falling 21 MA. A break out on upside seems unlikely at present but could change again later.

SP500 and FTSE one hour trend is up and rally seems to be underway

SP500 has moved sideways slightly up since opening in Asia and first hour in Europe. This means that a bottom formation is being created which later today could set off a rally on upside. All European indexes are doing the same but IBEX which has taken a new low. Usually Thanksgiving Day is a calm day but the futures market is open as usual. So far it is just wait and see.


SP500 has just taken a new 7 week low with current low at 1.166.42 and target could be 1.155.55 where the 8 week MA turns down .

SP500 has now 2 gaps, 1.214.72 and 1.186.69. Trading has been sideways for 11 hours and a rally could not be ruled out even though Wall Street have less traders because of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow.

Merkel backs ECB, warns on Greek aid tranche

The story below showed how dependent Euro banks are on ECB. Here are clear words from Merkel to German parliament, ECB's mandate is not to give out loans.


Europe’s Banks Relying on Money From E.C.B.

SP500 taking new low in Asia at 1.168.65

SP500 broke last support at 1.181.01 on downside at Tokyo open to a low of 1,170.65. Now trading 1.175.56. Target 1.147 area.


GDP bad news.SP500 will now test yesterday low

SP500 upside testing reached 1.200.37 but seems to give up and turning to downside. However US GDP-figures will be out at in 6 minutes

Illustration of current situation, SP500

This is 2 hour bars with the 8MA below and the 21 and 34 MA:s above. You can see the gap seven bars from the left.

SP500, very strong selling pressure at 1.200 holds trend below this crucial resistance point. Buyers trying to cover gap have not got enough buying strength now

What is going on is a fight between two groups. The strongest group so far sells heavily at very important chart point at 1.199.37 - 1.201.12. This point is looked at all over the world because many thinks if this points goes the bear market is not in place anymore. The other group thinks that the gap at 1.210.46 must be covered for the down trend to continue. The 2 hr chart 8 MA is up, currently 193.98 and will rise for several hours unless the buyers give up. However as the time goes by both teams will be stronger and stronger. Who will win is difficult to say. I will continue to monitor this fight.

Right now a new attack at the upside

SP500 2hr 8 MA will turn up at 09:00 stopping further downward trial

Rally may start very soon

Rally technically ready to take off before Europe opens.

SP500 bottom finished in Asia for rally to close gap. Be prepared for upside move today.


Daily technical downtrend established for all indexes. But remember the gaps.

SP500 closed Monday at 1.192.46. A close below 1.200 is another strong indication that the market will fall further. It is very important to note that a gap always will be covered. Usually this happens when a bottom has been created on the 2 hr chart and the falling 8 days MA will not be confronted. This 8 day MA gets lower by the day but for Tuesday and Wednesday it has not come down to the gap point. The gap point that a rally must reach for SP500 is at 1.210.46. All indexes have gap points so do not get surprised if a rally comes up to this level which is very near last Friday's close. The gaps were created because the Asian opening was below Fridays lowest point.
The big drop came early Monday, between CET 08:00 - 16:00. Trading after that until close at 22:00 was used by the market to move sideways and by that behavior  creating the beginning of a bottom which when ready could be a starting point for a rally. Remember also that many players have short positions all the way up to Friday close. These short positions have electronic stop points for the short positions to be bought. In a rally, which usually is handled by the big boys everything goes very quickly and most of the time it is unexpected.

There are also many traders prepared to take new short positions when the rally runs out of steam. The time during this Thanksgiving week is perfect for such a rally because of small turnover.

I do not know when this rally will occur it could be Tuesday, Wednesday or some day in late December. It can also come any of the 21 hours SP500 is traded and you must be lucky to sit at your screen if you want to short the top.

SP500 takes out new important resistance at 1.186.81 with a 2 hr close at 1.185.21

SP500 now 15 min close below 1.190.0 at 1.188.9

Italy MIB has now taken a 5 months low. Target 2011 low at 13.097. Now trading 14.616

SP500 now low, taken out final support at 1.190.0. Target 1.147 next.

DOW has taken out last support at 11.626.7. Now trading 11.582 target 11.388.

DOW and SP500 takes new daily lows after Wall Street opens

SP500 is testing important 1.201.02 from below but so far been unable to hold above it. I still expect the markets to test 1.215 area to cover this mornings gap. Trend currently sideways 2 hr chart.

Italian MIB low 14.742. Holding above 6 week low at 14.715. Big picture same as CAC and IBEX, very bearish long term.

Spanish IBEX 5 week low at 8.134. Weekly MA now down, very bearish sign. First target 2011 low at 7.502

France CAC40 new 5 week low. First index where 8 week MA turns down. Very bearish longterm. First target 2011 low at 2.691, now 2.914.

Euro 5 week low at 1.3421. Low so far today 1.3438. No immediate danger so far for new low.

SWED has broken very important support at 932.85. Target a new 2011 low at 833

DOW just taken a new five week low at 11.618.3.

FTSE closed Friday at 5.354. Opened one hour ago with a gap at 5.323 and fell to a low at 5.241 first hour, breaking all support points for continued fall.

SP500 has taken out important support at 1.200 now at new low 1.193.62

SP500 new low at 1.204.47. First support at 1.201.02 on 2 hr chart. Second support at 1.191.75

SP500 closed Friday at 1.215.72 and opened i Asia at 1.207.47. This gap will most certainly be closed during the day. Now trading 1.204.97 at Tokyo open.

SP500 breaks on downside at Asia open with a 8 points gap. Technical picture short trend very bearish.

Analysis: Deficit deadlock may send chill through markets. US stocks could fall on failed action to lower deficit by 1.2 trillion. Failure now looks likely before deadline Wednesday.


Outlook for the stock indexes during week Nov 21.

SP500 and all European stock indexes could technically start to fall down to 2011 lows any day this week. The only index which still is holding a sideways trend with a possibility of a sustained upward trend is the DOW.

The hesitation to break down last Thursday and Friday was because of very low activities which especially have been the case on Wall Street. Everyone seems to wait for a sudden positive signal regarding the European debt. There are lots of rumours about a sudden solution that ECB will get green light from Germany to become the lender of last resort.

To make a forecast even more difficult is the fact that the U.S. has their biggest holiday, Thanksgiving on Thursday 24. Many market participants will leave Wednesday which practically means that Wall Street will function normally less than three full days this coming week.  Europe usually does not want to trade when the US traders are off. However I expect the big players to sit at their computers and with low volume send the indexes up and down without a real trend.

My personal job right now, since we technically is at the very edge of the drop with SP500 and FTSE, is to follow these two indexes in detail at least the first three days of the week and Friday and report on this blog what I see. 

Remember that the big technical picture will get worse by the day on the daily charts so any happy rumour from Europe with a powerful rally will most likely be just that, a rally that will come back down again quickly or after a few days.


Friday stock indices have moved above yesterdays low but very little. Now SP500 and FTSE is both very close to take out yesterdays bottom. If this occur a substantial drop can occur

However DOW is still holding above 8 weekly MA so a double bottom could well occur Friday in New York including FTSE and SP500.

Before US trading next Monday I will have an outlook report ready.

Have a nice weekend

The financial stability of Europe has come down to one institution, the European Central Bank, which is now under heavy new pressure to rescue the euro — or possibly see it collapse.

European problems get worse, no clear solution while debt yield increases


DOW and SP500 got short term trend up and computer trade on upside for the moment.

US and European trends down approaching very important resistance levels.

The technical picture has deteriorated significantly since Wednesday. DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED are moving in tandem down to test important resistance points which if broken can cause big drops.

The daily trends are now definitely down and several support points have been broken since Europe opened.

Today and tomorrow Friday could be the beginning of the next big move down.


IMPORTANT information about the markets next move.

All the stock indexes have now been trying to get higher for three weeks and three days. The last hour Wednesday in New York the Dow fell 184 points to close at 11.903. SP500 fell 19 points the last hour to close at 1.236.96. The only technical obstacle to a sharper drop is the rising 8 week MA. This MA will continue to rise a few more weeks and could technically hold DOW and SP500 up with continued possibilities to take new highs. However SP500 looks more and more unlikely to go higher and a new technical factor has come in to play that could stop SP to take new high. To cover all eventualities, even an unlikely break of the 8 week MA I already now want you to be aware that these two indexes can start falling from now on.

The euro has taken a new low Wednesday getting below strong resistance points which adds to my cautiousness and ECB has been forced to buy Italian and Spanish bonds since the market wants higher and higher yield by the day. A sharp drop can occur any time now and a falling Euro could scare the stock markets.

Summary: The situation in the markets is difficult to read during this period of quick turnaround in trends and new information dropping in about Europe's debt crises which still affect the markets on both side of the pond sharply. No exact time could be set now for the drop I expect.

Signs of Broad Contagion in Europe as Growth Slows

Dow has moved up and down within a 165 point range the whole trading day and I do not see any news coming that could change this behavior tonight.

DOW is now back in its downtrend currently at 12.013.

Dow closed Tuesday at 12.091.7 after a sharp selloff the last hour. Asia started with a drop gap taken DOW to a low of 11.936. When Europe opened Dow rallied on upside to close the gap and now the index is trading around Tuesdays closing level.

However the 2 hour trend is still down and this gap covering rally will soon come back down below the falling 21 and 8 MA at he 2hr chart at 12.042.


Dow short term trend moving on upside cannot tell how far it will go yet.

DOW and SP500 have broken resistance point and the fifth wave down is on it way.

Monthly charts now of DOW, SP500, DAX, FTSE, SWED, MIB, IBEX and CAC with comments

All the charts are 34 months and each bar is one month. They have 8 months MA and 21 months MA. A Bear Market in my definition occurs when the 8 MA turns down. When the 8 MA crosses the 21 MA on downside there is a Definite Bear Market. A bear market can be reversed if the index moves very strongly on upside and forces the 8 MA to turn up. During 28 years I have never seen that. When 8 MA definitely will cross the 21 MA or has done so there is no way back for many months.

DOW is moving up and down the falling 8 MA and can change the bear trend.

SP500 is trading between the MA:s and have difficulties to get above the 8 MA

DAX, first chart below,will most likely become a definite bear market Dec 1. The same will happen to FTSE, second chart. SWED, third chart, is in a definite bear market and so are MIB, IBEX and CAC.                                                                                      
I do not believe that European markets will be in a definite bear market alone. The US indexes will follow according to fundamental factors that will be evident soon about the locked political situation and many other things which I believe will surface when the European debt crisis has lost interest in the media.

DOW closed Monday at 12.077, Asia traded sideways. Europe trend down.

DOW and SP500 have done a three wave correction on downside since last Friday close. If it stays that way an upside rally with start during the day. However there is a strong fight going on between sellers and buyers right now to push the DOW below an hourly close of 12.027 which will send the index into a fifth wave on downside signalling that a new test of the highs is not imminent. CET 11:00 the hourly close came just above 12.027 and the market forces on one hand are still working to hold this point to be able to start a new uptrend and on the other side those who want a break on downside. We just have to wait and see how this will be played out.


The Euro is back to a very critical point.

EURUSD neckline in a big head and shoulder formation on the 2 hr chart is at 1.3653.8. This neckline was broken Nov 9 but a retest of the neckline Nov 11 was positive and the euro rallied to a top at 1.3807.7. Today the euro is falling again and last 2 hr close was just 6 points above the neckline. It is very important to keep an eye on the euro because it tells a lot where the stock markets are heading.

The first neckline break 2 hr closing low was at 1.3495.8. A close below this point could trigger a dramatic drop in the euro.

Dow 2hr trend now down as well now at low 12.090

DOW 1 hr trend is now down

DOW starts with a jump gap in Asia to test 2 hr high close at 12.227.7 but fails and falls back when Europe opens. Dow has now closed the gap but trend so far unclear.


Road to U.S. recovery goes through Rome Debt crisis in Italy. Secondly here is a few words about the very big picture


This article is not only about Europe but how the American economy performs. If the European debt crisis was not looming the company results, inflation and increasing consumer spending would put US in a good economic situation, according to the article. I doubt that. I think the national and especially the private debt in the US and Britain sooner rather than later will punish those which prints money to cover its debt. Europe except England do not print money so far because of Germany's definitive no to even that thought. For hundreds of years governments have printed money to make ends meet and as far as I know no country have avoided severe economic aftermath in that way. Of course US can go on this way, maybe for many years, but one day the economy will collapse. If Europe collapses because they refuse to print money that does not mean America and England are safe by doing so.

In May we had all the indexes at the top. I have calculated how much each index has lost in value from that top until last Fridays's close.

Index                              Percentage loss

DOW                                     6
SP500                                    8
FTSE                                     9
SWED                                  17
DAX                                     20
IBEX                                    22
CAC                                    24
MIB                                     30 

The monthly charts of course look different. The US and English indexes fall steep but also recover very strongly every month. The European indexes fall steeply but does not recover that much. Why this is could be the more advanced computer trading systems and the much frequently used short positions in the US especially. I also think that manipulation is easier to do with the DOW index which SP500 always mainly follow.

Only DOW and SP500 have the chance to reverse the bear market. All other indexes cannot technically do that. SP500 has a less chance than the DOW. That is one of reasons I have followed DOW in this blog.

DOW Friday close 12.153.1. What is next?

Daily chart of DOW to the left and 2 hr chart below.
The question is if all the news are priced in or not. Will the market take out the final high at 12.284 in the uptrend that started Oct 4 and how high will it go after that. Or will the Dow just stop where it is now.

Mario Monti, Italy and Lucas Papademos,Greece are the new technocrat leaders and are not interested to save a political reputation. Austerity programs are in place. Mariano Rajoy, Spain will be elected next Sunday and have told his countrymen that it will be very hard times the next year or so

These three countries are in a new situation with the people behind them so far. How will it play out? Can they make it ? I think the markets will give them at least a month to try. The technical picture still points to mid December or the beginning of January for turning down, unless we take new highs from here.

Regime Change in Europe: Do Greece and Italy Amount to a Bankers' Coup?


DOW takes new high on upside at 12.001

Greece and Italy Seek a Solution From Technocrats

Here is a very good article about Greece and Italy just now and what might happen. Less pessimistic than earlier reports.


DOW 2hr chart zoomed in

The 34 MA seems stronger and more aggressive pushing down than the rising 8 MA, that is the reason right now that I think the break will come on downside. However, big news can always change a trend like this, but 2 hour trend is my favorite trend since many years to find out where the next move will go. 

DOW moves in a triangle since Oct 27. See picture beneath. 2 hour chart.

Right now Dow is in the middle of the triangle. It is also trading between a rising 8 MA and a falling 34 MA. Today's hi 11.991 and low 11.885,5.

It seems right now as if the 8 MA will not be able to cross the 34 falling MA so I think that the trend might break on downside during the day. 


DOW closed Thursday 11.823. Big picture now

Here is Dow 2 hr close locked between rising 8 MA and falling 21 MA. Break will come Friday up or down. Difficult predict now.

Dow weekly bars. This week - the last bar is holding within last weeks bar. The rising 8 MA will rise steeper up for three to five weeks. I do not expect Dow to stay below this MA. That means continued sideways trend or upwards. The 34 MA will start next Monday to go steeper down. All I want to know is if the 8 MA will cross 34 MA or not.

Euro testing neckline at 1.3654 but seems unlikely to make it. EURUSD now locked between 1.3560 - 1.3650.

DOW have tried for four hours to get an hourly close above 11.900.1 without manage so far.

DOW rally unable to hold important 11.900.1 on close.

DOW one our trend is up. Hi so far 11.902.5

Euro against dollar on its way to 1.3078 area through a head and shoulder formation with broken neckline, now at 1.3546.

DOW outlook Thursday

This is a 4 hour chart from uptrend started at 10.400 Oct 4 until the top at 12.249 Oct 27. Then the drop down to the horizontal line at 11.663 where a double bottom was created. Then an upward trend in three waves to Tuesdays high of 12.184 followed by a break down to Wednesday's close at 11.782. I expect a test Thursday of the horizontal line. A break below 11.626 can send DOW to 11.000 area.(Chart Saxobank)

DOW closed 11.782.6. Next target seems to be 11.664

Italy at breaking point; fears grow of euro zone split


FTSE100 has taken new daily low at 5.424 and broken important support point at 5.446

German DAX holding steady above 8 week rising MA at 5.801. Seems to build a double closing bottom in 2 hr chart at 5.805

DOW has now fallen 300 points since Tuesday close. Now retesting 11.900.1 from below

Final intraday low is 11.838.4 if support above should not hold

Final support point is 11.859.2 on hourly close

DOW gets below important support point 11.900.1

DOW trying to get a hourly double bottom at 11.940.9 . 8 minutes left to see if it works

Euro taking new four weeks low against dollar at 1.3579.2

DOW today low 11.911.9. Tuesday low at 11.980.7 retested from below reaching 11.980.4 before sharp drop to test today's support at 11.940.9. Now trading at 11.931

DOW next resistance 11.900.1. If broken last resistance at 11.859.2. If broken steep fall possible to test 11.663.9

DOW hourly down trend looks strong, new low now at 11.941.4

DOW takes new low at 11.961.4. Next resistance at 11.900.1

DOW daily close at 11.983.2 must hold to avoid steep fall tonight at US close.

DOW intraday low is at 11.980.7 has been broken at 11.979.4

DOW crucial resistance holds CET 11:00 just 8 points above critical 11.990.7. Pressure continues.

Dow 1 hr trend down. Crucial resistance on hourly close, 11.990.7

DOW has broken out of its up chanel on downside. Short trend now down.

Nouriel Roubini sees double-dip recession: report


DOW takes a three day's high Monday closing at 12.065.6. 2 hr trend is up and next target might be 12.227.7.

DOW short term uptrend still up, hi so far 12.011.

Dow starts rally to test today's top again

Reuters) - Euro zone governments rushed to placate feverish bond markets on Monday as the currency bloc's debt crisis threatened to accelerate out of control, with Italy overtaking Greece as the prime threat to stability.

DOW's trend now down.

DOW now in the middle of today' range. Right now we have a triple top at 12.063 and if Dow does not accelerate above this top the 8 day MA will turn down after close tonight Monday which means the daily trend will be down for the first time since September 30.

Dow's uptrend less strong than anticipated. Important 2 hr chart close at CET 15:00 indicates slowing uptrend.

The Big Charts chart, with yellow back ground showing the cash market you can revisit any time. Just click Draw in red on your left hand site and the chart will update itself. You cannot do that on the futures charts so far.

Here is the Dow Future chart, 1 hr. Every hourly close is a dot. Here you see the blue 8 MA rising but under the 21 hr green MA which also is rising. The cash and the future markets move in tandem while Wall Street is open.

The DOW charts from Big Charts, the two yellow charts that you just have seen is the cash market that opened CET 15:30. What I refer to is the future market which opens already at CET 02:00 and especially the short term charts look very much different. I will publish the future charts as well now and then. They have a white back ground.This was just to give you an idea what it looks like. The future market is the most important market.

Here is the hourly chart where you can see that the uptrend is strong.

Here you can see what it looks like right now on this daily chart

DOW is on its way to test last weeks Thursday and Friday high at 12.063.6. Resistance at Thursdays close at 12.038. Today high 12.050.9. Now at 12.041.

EU Puts Deadline On Plan For Greek Govt Deal

Italy government borrowing rates hit euro-era high


Read the whole article from BBC, especially" Beginning of the end"

Euro zone set for 2012 recession: SocGen

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -– French bank Societe Generale said Monday it expects the euro-zone economies to fall into recession next year, adding that growth is also likely to be on the weaker side for the U.S. and China.

Europe leaves summit empty-handed

A grand plan to save the euro zone fell apart after a tumultuous G20 summit at the site of the Riviera's famous film festival. WSJ's Charles Forelle reports from Cannes.
The bank said financial stress conditions, elevated from the failure to resolve the euro-zone crisis, will elevate credit costs, erode confidence and result in negative wealth effects.
It warned that businesses are holding off hiring and investment plans as the crisis has moved from the financial sphere to undermine confidence in the real economy.
“The spillover from the euro-debt crisis has proven greater than previously expected and we now see recession as inevitable,” 


The Big Picture now. Part 3. The picture is zoomed. Every dot is the close of the week. The falling 34 MA and the rising 8 MA. What will happen. We will soon know.

The Big Picture now. Part 2.


SP500 weekly 2007 - 2011, Saxo Bank
The dark curve is the 34 week MA. The blue curve is the 8 week MA. The first of the five waves down - which have five mini waves - starts when  the 8 MA turns down at the left of the picture. Then it crosses the 34 week MA on downside and a very short time later the 34 MA starts to move down as well. The bear market has started. After the five mini waves have run its course a correction on upside starts. This move on upside have 7 mini waves. But look at the two MA:s. The 34 is falling despite the correction but the 8 is moving up but it turns down just before it reaches the 34. At that very moment the the big fall starts that cuts the SP500 50 percent in 10 months.
After the five waves down has ran its course the three waves on upside starts which peaks in mid 2011. Now look at the 8 MA how it turns down and crosses the 34 MA which also turns down. Then a bottom is created, the 8 MA runs up and is now on its way to eventually cross the 34 MA that is still falling despite a weekly close above. Look again at the correction in May 2008. The same cenario in my opinion.        

The Big Picture now. Part 1.

Standard & Poor's 500 index (SP500) weekly chart during 10 years until today from Big Charts.
This chart includes the 500 biggest companies in the US and is a more exact picture of the US economy than the Dow which only has 30 companies. This chart moves nearly the same way as the Dow but there are important differences. The quality of the picture is not good but it shows the main curve and a 34 week MA in an orange color. Look at the top of the curve which is 2007. See how the MA turns down after having moved up for four years. Follow the trend down to its bottom which is March 2009. See how the MA turns up again and how it seems to turn down for good in August 2011. This weekly 34 MA is the same as a 8 months MA but more exact. My definition of a bear market is that the 8 months MA or the 34 weeks MA has turned down. The last two weeks the index has tried to change the downtrend of the MA but so far unsuccessfully. The index might continue to do so within the next few weeks but time is slowly running out. Now you understand why I have written so much about the Dow's exact numbers where this can occur. This 10 year curve of SP500 also shows a few basic facts. From the 2007 top there are five waves to the bottom. 2007 was in my view the final top of a bull market that started 1982. According to R.N. Elliott and Natures law, a top is final if it is followed by a five wave downward correction. The uptrend since March 2009 has only three waves which is exactly what it should have according to Elliott. If the MA continues down the third wave down from 2007 is a fact and Natures law through Elliott says that it will be a five wave movement down, like the 2007 - 2009 curve, which will take the index to catastrophic levels.


DOW closed at 11.979.4, leaving 21 MA in 1 hr chart as resistance for Asia at 11.991

Dow trying upside again, 5 min chart. 11.991 seems to be the aim

DOW gives up and moves down, new low 5 min top

DOW 5 min chart. DOW have tried to get that close five times but not managed. Now turns down to test support (S)

If DOW manage a 5 min close above 11.981.1 a rally could move quickly to test 12.013

DOW must take strong resistance point at 11.981.1 on a 5 minutes close to advance further

DOW takes a new daily low at 11.845.7 but then the short term trend has taken the index back to the 8 day MA in the middle of today's trading span.

All indexes in tandem down

DOW down trend stronger

There is on the 1 hr chart a triple top. On the 15 min chart there are five waves on downside telling me that the likelihood of a down trend is big. But there is always the risk for intervention or manipulation that some time could take a while to identify.  

Trend back to normal for DOW. Trend is down.

US jobs report positive. Trend disturbed. Unclear about where the short term trend will go now.

DOW test upside now.

After having hit the 8 day MA DOW is moving on upside to find out were the sellers are. Resistance (R) at 12.003 stopped the uptrend on 5 min chart so far.

DOW 2hr trend is now down.

The 2 hr 8 MA has turned down and the DOW has taken a new low at 11.971.1 touching the rising 8 day MA at 11.791.6. Now trading 11.785.

DOW trades within 69 points today after 9 hours

The DOW players seems to have taken the day off so far. The index is moving between 11.993 - 12.062.
The 8 day MA is up at 11.979 and today's Hi so far is the same as yesterday's high. Now trading in the middle of the range at 12.030.

The calm after yesterdays intervention.

All the European indexes look the same and the news from the G20 meeting does not affect the markets so far.

G20 meeting. Italy accepts IMF monitoring, EU looks for support

Q&A: what Greece faces on the rocky road ahead

Here is the latest interesting article about what can happen to Greece from The Telegraph:


DOW closed Thursday at 12.038.

By today's jump in the daily trend by 417 points all trends are up again except for the monthly trend where the downward 8 month MA is at 12.053. Today's high was 12.064. From a technical point of view my target is around 12.127 - 12.140 depending of how you count.

To change the 8 months MA to the upside 12.323 must be reached and to keep it up DOW must close above 12.811 November 30.
I stand by my believe that November will be a month with powerful drops and up trends and my guess is still that the 8 month MA will not be moved on upside which means the bear market will not become a bull market. But remember this is just a guess based on my overall feelings of the technical trends and the fundamental facts.


The intervention with short covering seems to have ended now.

A good example how an intervention with short covering looks like today's DAX 2 hr bar chart since CET 07:00 is perfect. There are three bars that just explodes on upside during a manipulation.
You will find them in many charts during the years.

If it had been a normal trend on fundamentals it would look like EURUSD during the same period of time.

DOW target 11.975 reached with a high of 11.989.

All indexes are taken new daily highs.

DOW is close to my target  and the uptrend is very strong. DAX and FTSE have closed their daily gaps  from November 1. SWED, MIB,CAC and IBEX have not closed their gaps yet.

New reason in a paper why the Dow rises.

NEW YORK—U.S. stock futures erased earlier sharp losses to trade higher, tracking the rebound in Europe markets, as the increased likelihood that Greece will no longer seek a referendum buoyed investor sentiment.

The text above was  just published by WSJ. In my view it was the Dow which started the rally 30 minutes before Europe opened and the European stock markets followed the Dow as they always do during the circumstances that made the trend this morning.

If Dow takes today's top 11.975 is my target.

DOW now moves up to test today's top

What Wall Street Journal thinks is the reason for the rally.


This is a typical example that the journalists have no idea what is really happening so they take the latest news from Greece and make it bullish. We the readers are mislead because the journalist do not think you can manipulate a trend and so does everyone else, but me.

Manipulation occurs now in Asia and Europe so they will get the blame.

Usually since many years, the manipulations I remember have taken place when the US has been open. Now they start when Asia opens to prepare for the manipulation and starts the run  30 min before Europe opens.

Do we all believe that it is the Asians and the Europeans who cheat. Remember that this is Dow futures that can be traded from computers anywhere. Here you just use big amounts of money if the turnover is low and 30 minutes later when Europe open the trend is already 30 min old and unstoppable.

I think it is the same group of people who are the manipulators nearly every time.

DOW now seems to be close to a drop with a triple top at the 5 minutes chart.

Dow now below trend high for 45 minutes moving sideways. No clear signal for next move. The bears have lost a lot of money the last two hours so it make take a while before next dip.

The DOW rally that started Thursday at CET 8:30 seems manipulated.

To me this is a classical example how someone make their money by manipulating the index.

Exact at CET:08:30 when the next step should be to really test the double bottom from Tuesday they started an uptrend 30 minutes before Europe opens. Trading volume is very low then. The Europeans had to cover their short positions and the uptrend continued until 11:15 with the top at 11.905. A 250 Dow points rise without any news so far in the papers. At the top of rally the group sold their long positions and they are now preparing to go short again.
Since the manipulators and their computers know where the trend will go from 8:30 to 11:15 they start buying long positions hours before the bottom.

Is it fair to manipulate a trend like this or is it OK. This is anyway the reason why only 2 percent of traders make money, big money.

DOW's current, most likely manipulated trend, is now testing important daily resistance point 11.910.3, now trading 11.885.

I am concentrating on the trend, but will come back in detail to why I think it is manipulated because it is a classical example how you make everyone but yourself loose money.

Dow 1 hr trend up.

DOW first attack to break on downside stopped. The index is now moving up fast to close this mornings gap in Asia at 11.803,4. Just now that gap was closed. The uptrend in itself is in doubt because the 2 hr chart is still down.

DOW current 2 hr chart details

The important double bottom at 2 hr chart close Tuesday is 11.657.7. Tuesdays intraday low was 11.626,7.
Dow current low 11.647,4 now trading 11.662.

All trends but the weekly are down, including the daily trend where the 8 day MA has turned down. The 1 and 2 hr charts 8 and 21 MA:s are all down supporting a new low.

Europe opens in ten minutes.

DOW now close to break on downside.

Less than one hour before Europe opens the down is testing Tuesdays double bottom at 11.657.2. A break below this level can send the index down to 11.454 area where the rising 8 week MA is. Dow just now at 11.665. 

Greek Premier Pledges Vote in December on Debt Deal

The Greek question will most certainly have big impact where the stock markets will go. The situation is very complicated. New York Times has a good article below that shows everything I want to know now:



Bernanke's press conference could affect the DOW, read story below.

There is a possibility that Dow can break on downside according to the 2 hr chart

Dow 2 hr trend still up.

DOW has been trading sideways for a couple of hours and the hourly range is very short. The 8 MA is up but there is a falling one hour 21 MA now at 11.876 that have stopped the trend to go higher. The current range is between 11.770 and 11.876 and my feeling is that DOW will close within these numbers today at CET 21:00.

DOW 2 hr trend still up, seems to create a stronger bottom for rally later.

Debt crisis: Greek PM wins cabinet support for EU bailout referendum

DOW, SP500 and DAX 2 hr trend is now up. Europe opens i four minutes


8 week rising MA strong support for all indexes.

Despite the big falls Tuesday the 8 week MA held up well in Europe with DAX, FTSE and SWED closing just above the moving average which always is a strong support in dramatic falls like Tuesday's.
MIB, CAC and IBEX closed just below the average.
In the US the trading did not even come close to the rising 8 week MA. Dow closed at 11.657.7 and the 8 MA is at 11.453. Sp500 performed as the DOW did.

It is now CET 11: 17 and we are all waiting for what the Greece government has decided. G 20 starts tomorrow and the first thing according to Sky News is a meeting with the Greek side.

Markets Slump Amid 'Suicide' Greek Referendum

Here are the latest news about Greece from Sky news:


DOW still falling, last support before the 21 day rising MA is 11.705.9. Low so far 11.711.9. Now trading 11.718.

Panic selling all over Europe.

All European indexes have fallen steeply since opening this morning with huge gaps. The strong support from the 8 week rising MA has been penetrated in Italy and other countries's indexes are close to this MA.

The European indexes has been open two and a half hour and there is no letup in selling pressure.

DOW closed Monday at 11.956 and is now trading at a new low of 11.793. If this trend holds there could be a very nasty opening gap in the US at CET 14:30.

Global Shares Fall as New Anxiety Arises Over Europe

I recommend this story which gives an update of the fundamentals at present from NYT