Standard & Poor's 500 index (SP500) weekly chart during 10 years until today from Big Charts.
This chart includes the 500 biggest companies in the US and is a more exact picture of the US economy than the Dow which only has 30 companies. This chart moves nearly the same way as the Dow but there are important differences. The quality of the picture is not good but it shows the main curve and a 34 week MA in an orange color. Look at the top of the curve which is 2007. See how the MA turns down after having moved up for four years. Follow the trend down to its bottom which is March 2009. See how the MA turns up again and how it seems to turn down for good in August 2011. This weekly 34 MA is the same as a 8 months MA but more exact. My definition of a bear market is that the 8 months MA or the 34 weeks MA has turned down. The last two weeks the index has tried to change the downtrend of the MA but so far unsuccessfully. The index might continue to do so within the next few weeks but time is slowly running out. Now you understand why I have written so much about the Dow's exact numbers where this can occur. This 10 year curve of SP500 also shows a few basic facts. From the 2007 top there are five waves to the bottom. 2007 was in my view the final top of a bull market that started 1982. According to R.N. Elliott and Natures law, a top is final if it is followed by a five wave downward correction. The uptrend since March 2009 has only three waves which is exactly what it should have according to Elliott. If the MA continues down the third wave down from 2007 is a fact and Natures law through Elliott says that it will be a five wave movement down, like the 2007 - 2009 curve, which will take the index to catastrophic levels.
This chart includes the 500 biggest companies in the US and is a more exact picture of the US economy than the Dow which only has 30 companies. This chart moves nearly the same way as the Dow but there are important differences. The quality of the picture is not good but it shows the main curve and a 34 week MA in an orange color. Look at the top of the curve which is 2007. See how the MA turns down after having moved up for four years. Follow the trend down to its bottom which is March 2009. See how the MA turns up again and how it seems to turn down for good in August 2011. This weekly 34 MA is the same as a 8 months MA but more exact. My definition of a bear market is that the 8 months MA or the 34 weeks MA has turned down. The last two weeks the index has tried to change the downtrend of the MA but so far unsuccessfully. The index might continue to do so within the next few weeks but time is slowly running out. Now you understand why I have written so much about the Dow's exact numbers where this can occur. This 10 year curve of SP500 also shows a few basic facts. From the 2007 top there are five waves to the bottom. 2007 was in my view the final top of a bull market that started 1982. According to R.N. Elliott and Natures law, a top is final if it is followed by a five wave downward correction. The uptrend since March 2009 has only three waves which is exactly what it should have according to Elliott. If the MA continues down the third wave down from 2007 is a fact and Natures law through Elliott says that it will be a five wave movement down, like the 2007 - 2009 curve, which will take the index to catastrophic levels.
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