Spain in recession as austerity bites deep

DAX has broken its long sideways trend on upside on opening Monday. First R point at 6.871.01

SP500 charts now. 2 hour, daily and monthly

SP 2 hour trend is strong on upside towards the double top to the left.

Below is the daily trend where you can see the double top as well but a more hesitant approach on upside.

Here is the big monthly trend from 2007. One bar is one month. Today the 30 April there will be a close at the last bar and a new one will start tomorrow. You see the 8  MA moving strongly on upside now and just below is the 21 MA. The MA's shows a very strong uptrend and any drop on downside will be stopped by the 8 MA. The trend can move sideways and up but not down.



DOW and SP500 now in a strong uptrend. Resistance for DOW is 13.258.7 and for SP500 1.402.35

SP500 , 2 hour trend is now up as well

DOW has changed the 2 hour down trend to up while SP500 is trading sideways.

SP500 and DOW did not manage to hold a rally on Europe opening but fell back. Now the 2 hour 8 MA's have turned down and the rising 21 MA has given support. The trend is now technically down for both indexes. SP500 now trading 1.386 and DOW 13.063

DOW must get above 13.128.4

DOW has been trading sideways for 8 days. To break this trend on upside the index must get above 13.128.4. US close Wednesday was 13.088 and the high in Asia today is 13.100.5. Now trading at 13.094. What i wrote about SP500 in the blogg below goes for the Dow as well.

SP500 outlook. The main indexes have now moved sideways between 8 and 12 days and a break out must come sooner or later.

SP500 range for 12 days has been 1.356.82 - 1.393.81. Today Thursday the index is testing the upside for the fourth time. High so far this morning is 1.392.98. The close on Wall Street Wednesday was 1.391 and during the last seven hours in Asia there are again signs of a topping out process below the top 1.393.81. A break on upside can still come today so we have to wait for trading in Europe and maybe even for the US economic news at CET 14:30. If SP500 turns down again there is a possibility that this index has seen its final top at 1.424.70.


SWED why a sudden stop in the daily downtrend occurred.

The chart to the left is the monthly chart. Look at the rising 8 month MA which halts the down trend. Below is the daily chart which looks like yesterdays fall with a close at the bottom would continue down today.

This is an example how the monthly MA stops the trend.

IBEX 1995 - 2012

This chart show how close IBEX is to break 2009 low and eventually 2002 low as well. There is still a chance that the index can hold Aprils bottom, build a bottom formation and move up. IBEX shows the situation of the European debt crisis in a nut shell that is why I think it is important to follow this index and of course hope for the best.

DOW daily, weekly and monthly until April 24 2012

 Look at the Daily, Weekly and Monthly 8 and 21 MA's.When a cross between the MA's happen you see that a long trend often follows on both upside or downside. As soon as the blue 8 MA turns direction the bar rallies in that direction and often get above the 21 MA that has the opposite direction. But without a cross you see that the bars cannot hold above the 21 MA and falls back to the 8 MA. But after a cross the long trend starts. Look at the monthly chart at the bottom and you see the 2007 fall came back to the 8 falling MA until the cross came then the big fall was initiated. See the bottom at 2009 where the 8 MA turned up first and later crossed the 21 MA. Since this cross both the MA's are still moving  together up and there is no sign that the 8 MA will turn down now again. The monthly trend is up. The weekly chart in the middle you can see at the end that the 8 MA move sideways and the 21 MA rising. A drop can get below 21 MA but a cross is needed to make a down trend otherwise the bar will jump back up to the 8 MA again. Finally the daily chart where both MA's are down and have crossed so the daily trend is down. After having seen that you must look what happens with this trend in the weekly and monthly charts. This is what I tried to explain in my last blogg yesterday. Always look at the weekly and monthly charts when the daily trend moves down and you will see the options for this trend.

DOW, SP500 and FTSE are holding above critical support points while DAX, SWED and IBEX are taking new lows.

All daily trends are down but the weekly and monthly trends are either up or sideways for all indexes but IBEX which gets closer to the last support points from 2009 day by day.

The weekly trends 8 MA's are mostly down but the 21 MA's are up. To get a steep fall the 8 MA must cross the 21 MA which also must turn down. This will take several weeks in some cases. The monthly trends are all up and it is seldom an index can penetrate and get below a rising monthly 8 or 21 MA.

These technical facts makes a falling daily trend less dangerous and we have seen during the last few weeks how the daily movements suddenly can turn both up and down without warning. It is most often the weekly and monthly trend lines that causes this.

Because of this some indexes are difficult to predict at present but that will change with time and as soon as the road is open for up or downside you will read it in the blog. It is difficult to explain and understand but I will try to show how it works with pictures in the blogs the weeks ahead.

A Europe Tired of Cutbacks Has Few Alternatives


All indexes fell on opening in Europe.

The indexes are still falling. DAX has only one support point left, 6.529.84 before a bigger fall could set in. SWED also only got one support point left at 1.015.43. SP500 have support at 1.362.56 and 1.356.81.


More about what the charts below tell me and investment advice.

If the price today is 1.400 and the maximum price 1.500 eventually as SP500, should you invest in SP500 now ? Do you want to gamble with your money to eventually get 7 percent. Of course not. Get out of the stock markets now and hold all your money on a current account which you can move immediately. Bonds will not go higher and the yield is extremely low unless you want to take risks. Bond prices can only fall. Wait for a new long-term opportunity. This is my advice. Cash is the king now. Since Angela Merkel and Ben Bernanke both are afraid of bank-runs you should see to that your money can be moved out of the bank quickly.  If one bank-run happens in for instance Chicago it will only take hours next morning until banks in Germany will see big money moving out and eventual bank-runs start in Europe. As Bernanke said, we cannot stop this anymore.

The weekly chart does not show any change since last week and the daily chart is moving sideways. Only if you are a day trader you should participate in the stock market. Do not try yourself to day trade because only 2,5 percent of day traders make a profit and I promise that it will take at least 8 years to make profits.

So where should you look for investment. My advice is to be prepared to buy apartments  at the sea in southern Spain soon. Prices might drop another 20 percent or so but it is worth looking in to it now and pinpoint the apartments you want.

SP500 Very big perspective to daily trend. From above to down. 1984 - 2012, next trend from 2007 - 2012 and finally Oct 2011 - April 2012. Look at the first chart. From 1982 to 1995 the index climbed slowly. 1995 to 2000 the big move came from 500 to 1.500. Then down to 800 and then up to 1.500 again and again down to 800 and now at 1.400. Yes 1.500 again is a possibility but not higher. When ever the current up trend is over there will most certainly be a drop to 800 again. If 800 should break we will be back at 500 and 1995 again.


DOW now

DOW closed Tuesday at 13.110.4 after a technical rally.  Wednesday's range so far at CET 12.00 is 13.069.4 to 13.108.4. Resistance points are 13.110.4 and 13.125. Support points 13.007.5 and 12.926.
Monthly, Weekly and Daily trends are up. The 2 hour trend has just turned down.
Asia and Europe have not even traded above Wall Street close Tuesday indicating that it was only a technical rally without substance.


All indexes but IBEX.The daily downtrend could change now to up starting a rally on upside. If current levels will hold at today's close the technical uptrend will be in place from tomorrow

The SWED now

SWED is very close to make a move up to 1.080 area to close a gap. I think the low in the current daily downtrend has been seen at 1.014.53. If SWED can close today above 1.040 the 8 day MA will turn up. Important R point is 1.053.68. A move up to the gap will probably only be a rally and not a trend change. The falling 8 week MA at 1.074 will not allow trading very long at the gap area.

DOW has started to move upwards from the 12.906 area. Now trading 12.950. R is at 12.976.5 and the very important R is at 13.007.5

DOW and SP500 have made very small movements in Asia Tuesday

Europe has been trading 30 minutes and everything is calm and slow. Weekly trends are sideways, Daily trends still down but can soon change to sideways. 2 hour trends sideways as well.

DAX, FTSE, SWED and IBEX slowly moves sideways. Feels like the lull before a storm.

EURO, GOLD, OIL and BONDS same lull as the stock indexes. 


Bonds, Gold and CRUDE OIL UK

The 10 year note and the German Schatz daily trend is up but is traded sideways for the fifth day and it seems difficult to take new highs.

GOLD has now got a Weekly sellsignal which is a strong warning. 8 week falling MA now at 1.669.27 which is first R point. Now trading at 1.653.

OIL UK has also now got a falling 8 week MA with strong R at 123.49. Now trading 120.01.

Indexes now

DOW closed Friday at 12.856.5. Monday trading until now between 12.810.5 and 12.903. Daily trend is down, weekly trend is sideways. The 2 hour trend is sideways.

All other indexes trends are down as well and no index has been able to get above the falling 8 days MA. The same small movements as the Dow. Now awaiting US trading open in one hour.

IBEX has just taken a new low at 7.184.4


Stocks: Investors brace for volatility

IBEX 2002 - April 15, 2012. Monthly bar chart. IBEX closed Friday at 7.251.9 and the low in March 2009 is at 6.697.2. There are no support points on the way to this bottom. If the bottom should be broken a very dangerous situation could occur. It is very important to watch IBEX now because of the current crisis in Europe.

SWED 2006 - April 15, 2012. Weekly close

SWED looks like the DAX

DAX 2006 - 15 April 2012. Weekly close.

DAX and the rest of the European indexes have not managed to get above the 2011 top. Blog will tell next move when it is due.

FTSE 2006 - April 15, 2012. Weekly close

FTSE looks more and more like a head and shoulder formation long term. My outlook is unchanged

SP500 2006 - April 15, 2012. Weekly close

SP500 also got a double top and support at 2011 top

Big picture of DOW weekly close 2006 - April 14, 2012.

Here is DOW. It had start to climb the all time high top 2007 but a double top at 13.244.8 stopped the move and forced the index down to 12.856.5 just above the 2011 top at 12.810 which now is a weekly close support. I cannot tell which way the big trend takes next right now but the blog will tell as soon as I know.


German Schatz futures has taken an all time high at 10.570. US 10 year notes now at today's high 131.23.5. All time high is at 132.11.0

SWED closed at Tuesdays low at 1.014.54. S is at 1.007.21, 996.65, 968.76 and 931.33. IBEX closed 7.438.4 and last support since March 2009 is at 6.876.5

DAX and FTSE have fallen sharply. Next S for DAX is 6.465.49. FTSE has S at 5.508.63, 5.411.53 and 5.324.03

DOW is close to my S 12.743. If broken next two S points are 12.731.3 and 12.720.5. SP500 has broken my S point and next support should be at 1.342 or 1.339

DOW and SP500 now taking new daily lows at 12.853 and 1.375

IBEX in critical situation. Has broken very important S point at 7.502 now falling to a low of 7.485. Target seems to be March 2009 low at 6.697.2

Bernanke afraid of bank runs in the US.(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable.

"The risk of runs ... remains a concern, particularly since some of the tools that policymakers employed to stem the runs during the crisis are no longer available," he said

Whole page:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE8380X620120410?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

STOXX 50, Europes leading Blue-chip index for the Eurozone opens one percent down to an 11 week low with a gap.

DOW and SP500 holding around Mondays close when DAX opens.

DAX opens first in Europe at CET 08:00 and falls 1 percent from the last daily close April 5 to 6.688.

DOW closed Monday 12.931.3 and SP500 at 1.381.73.

Technical picture point to a target for Dow at 12.743 area and for SP500 1.357 area. There could be rallies on upside before we move lower to the R I mentioned Saturday. The drop from Thursday to Monday was about 1 % so I expect the European index to fall Tuesday about 1 percent after opening unless something extra ordinary happens in Asia which opens in 30 minutes.

I will come back to all the indexes when the downtrends have stabilized in Europe.


10 Year notes rallied on Friday on the job news to a close at 1.390.7 and the yield fell to 2.061.

SP daily trend is not technically down yet. R is at 1.390.7 and S at 1.376.92

DOW got daily trend down now.

A head and shoulder formation on the 2 hour chart now got a broken neckline signaling a target of 12.746.8.  A retest first of the important 13.030.7 is technically possible but not likely with current chart pictures. At 12.731 lies next important S

DOW and SP500 fell sharply Friday to close below the rising 8 MA for the first time since Dec 12, 2011 open the way for a dramatic week April 9.

DOW and SP500 were traded Friday 30 minutes after the release of March job numbers 120.000, about half the gains posted in each of the preceding three months.

DOW closed at 12.919 and SP500 closed at 1.379.92.

This opens the way for a dramatic trading day Monday April 9.


DOW has broken 13.000 to a low of 12.987.1. Now testing 13.000 from below. If unsuccessful next S point is 12.963

EURO finally breaks on downside today. Now trading 1.3067. S points 1.3003 and 1.2973.

DAX very close to S point given, 6.681.34. If broken next support at 6.616.79

All indexes have turned down. Here are support points. DOW 12.997.7, SP500 1.386.02, DAX 6.681.34, FTSE 5.650, IBEX 7.501.7 and SWED 1.027.73

SWED before opening Thursday

SWED broke important S at 1.057.43 and closed at 1.040.84 on Wednesday. The index also have a gap at 1.078.95 which should be closed. Thursday S if the trend continues down is at 1.027.73 and R if upside trend starts is at 1.057.43.

IBEX before opening Thursday

IBEX closed Wednesday at 7.654.7 below important support point (S) at 7.738.5.
If the downtrend continues there are S at 7.598 and 7.502. If the trend changes to up I expect a test from below of 7.738.5. 

DOW, SP500 and FTSE at CET 07.35

DOW's critical support point 13.030.7 was never challenged Wednesday. The close was 13.072.7. In Asia the short trend is now up, currently at 13.085. I expect this uptrend to continue and a possible test om main R at 13.150.7 is possible later today Thursday.
SP500 is also in an hourly uptrend currently at 1.400.37.
FTSE will open  CET 09:00. This index moved sideways before close Wednesday which came in at 5.711. FTSE broke very important support point at 5.736.75 and I expect a test of this point from below today Thursday.


SWED has taken new daily lows. Next support seems to be 1.040.

FTSE has taken a new 10 week low at 5.695.75. Next support is at 5.679.43. The big downtrend now seems to accelerate.

DOW downtrend continuous. A break of 12.997.7 could send DOW to the 12.700 area.

GOLD is very close to a severe breakdown if the falling trend gets below 1.627.86. Now trading at 1.631.50.

10 YEAR Treasure note's low was 128.245 set at CET 23.00 Tuesday. A rally has been going on since that to test very very important resistance at 129.085. Remember that the yield goes in the opposite direction. The note has tested the R point during 45 minutes but so far been unable to get above it. take the R.

SWED has just taken a 9 week low at 1.052.83. The first main index to do that.

SP500 is falling in a very bearish 2 hour trend now at new low 1.402.56. Thursday 8 day MA will turn down unless a close above 1.416.34. Rising 21 MA may give support in 1.397 area.

DOW has now fallen 35 hours in a row. Current low at 13.120.8. No support points in 2 hr chart until 13.047. However 21 days rising MA gives support at present at 13.124.. The 8 days MA is currently up at 13.185 but will likely change trend to down on Thursday unless DOW can close above 13.238.6

DAX now

DAX has fallen to a low at 6.878.50. Strong resistance at 6.870.98 and 6.841.56. Now trading 6.900.

SWED now

SWED closed Tuesday at 1.081.58. Opened Wednesday with a huge gap from 1.078.96 to 1.070.42. Low is at 1.059.71. Strong resistance at 1.057.43. Now trading 1.062.

FTSE now

FTSE fell on opening Wednesday to a low at 5.799.5. Now trading 5.809. The top is held down by the falling 8 day MA at 5.809.
The bearish outlook I have is unchanged.

IBEX now

IBEX broke 2 hr bottom a few minutes before close Tuesday and ended at 7.828.5.
Wednesday opened  with a gap at 7.821.8 and took a low at 7.717.8. Now trading sideways at 7.788 trying to close gap. Very strong resistance (R) on close at 7.738.5.

European shares set to fall after Fed minutes

Shares retreat as Fed minutes soften stimulus bias

FIRST REACTION ON HIGHER YIELDS. S&P 500 falls from four year highs, thanks to Fed

Treasury prices dropped Tuesday, pushing 10-year yields up by the most in three weeks to a high of 2.311 and closing at 2.289.

The daily line chart looks very interesting with an upside three wave move from the rising 21 days MA. It is to early to draw any definite conclusions on this move but it came unexpected since I in yesterdays blog said that i do not believe much to happen before Easter. The rise came with a gap so Wednesdays and Thursdays moves will be very interesting.

When the Treasury prices drop the yield moves higher. The big importance of higher interest rates in current economic environment did I point to in the blog below.


The biggest threat to the worlds economy is not growth or high oil prices but rising interest rates. And now the charts are clear. Watch up.

Interest rates reached a peak in the 1980,s above 20 percent and now 30 years later we have had the bottom for the 10 year treasury note yield at 1.676 percent. The technical picture is now clear. We have had the first wave on upside reaching 2.40 and now the second wave which always is down looks to very soon find support in the 2.16 area. Technically the monthly trend is on its way to turn up, the weekly trend is up and I am just waiting for a final upside signal from the daily and hourly charts. I do not expect anything to happen before Easter but immediately after I advice everyone to closely watch the charts, it can take some time so be patient.

A daily close above 2.46 signals that a very long trend on upside has started.This trend up can be very slow in the beginning with a strong resistance in 2.60 area. The important thing is that it has started. Compare the German Schatz futures chart that is the German bond prices, not the yield which move in the opposite direction. The big picture of interest rates in the US and Germany use to move in the same big pattern.

SP500's top Monday was 1.421.85. Closed at 1.417.62. Now moving sideways just below the close.

DOW reached a top Monday on US data at 13.294.2. The index then fell back in Asia and now moves sideways just below Mondays close at 13.258.7.

SWED - which like IBEX - only trade CET 09:00 to 17:30 - is moving strongly up. First important R at 1.090.60. Now trading 1.085.

DAX 2 hour trend is up and the high is 7.089.96. Now trading sideways in 7,069 area waiting for 2 hr, 8 MA to reach this trading area.

FTSE's strong short covering rally Monday could not reach import R at 5.920.60. Now trading sideways in 5.885 area.

IBEX strong 2 hour chart bottom has broken on upside but the falling daily 8 MA stops further advance at 8.075. IBEX now trading 8.044


U.S. manufacturing continues to rebound

FTSE has rallied very strongly to a high of 5.899. Next resistance (R) is 5.920.61

Market now

FTSE 1 hour trend is up trying to get above strong resistance at 5.780.4. Next R is 5.799.32
SWED holding below R 1.069.01 and DAX the same at R 6.958.60.
IBEX is building a bottom on 2 hr chart for a possible rally later in 7.900 area.
DOW small movements up and down but 2 hr 21 MA rising and holding now at 13.190.
SP500 support (S) at 8 day rising MA at 1.405. Now trading 1.406.92

DOW has fallen to a daily low at 13.175.6. Now at 13.188 getting support from rising 2 hr 21 MA. The 8 MA is down. Daily high so far 13.262.3. Awaiting US close to see if triangle mentioned earlier will be broken or not.

US Stocks Are Overpriced by 50%: Author

DAX and FTSE falling steep with 2 hr trends now down. DOW and SP500 falling as well

DAX opened with a gap at 6.962.53. Rallied up to the falling 8 day MA at 7.001where strong selling pressure forced the index back down to new daily low at 6.933

SP500 2 hr trend is up. Got a gap at 1.410.58. Resistance at 1.415.17 and 1.416.67. Now trading 1.411.16

IBEX now

IBEX is now in a monthly, weekly and daily downtrend. The 2 hour trend is sideways to down. Support is at 7.905.7 and 7.860.3. Now trading 7.941. The 2 hour trend could turn down in a few hours time.

DOW daily closing points are in a triangle. A close above 13.246.9 will break the triangle on upside and 13.180 will break on downside. Now trading in a two hour top formation at 12.241.6

FTSE has a big double bottom and is moving up.

FTSE daily trend is down. The weekly trend is sideways to down but the one and two hour trends are up. I do not know how high the index will go and there are lots of resistance points on the way up. Since FTSE in my opinion is the market leader it is important to follow the index closely so many reports will be published about FTSE's movements. The first two resistance points are 5.805.50 and 5.817.25. Now trading at 7.795


Analysis: Storm clouds gather over Monti's Italy reform drive

(Reuters) - Storm clouds are gathering over Mario Monti's efforts to transform the Italian economy, with his approval ratings dropping, mounting protests against his reforms and a damaging row with the parties that sustain him in parliament.
Monti shot out of the blocks after being appointed prime minister in November and quickly implemented tough austerity measures to fend off the debt crisis. But he now risks running into political quicksands that will slow down and weaken the much harder task of reviving a notoriously stagnant economy.

Will growth keep the stock rally going in the US ?