10/08/2012

DOW closed Thursday at 13.181.9. Asia has traded the index down to a low of 13.124.2. Now at 13.140. The 2 hr trend is down but even a small rally could change this trend to sideways. Now very small movements. Europe opens in 30 minutes. Support at 13.122.6 and resistance at 13.181.9.

The daily uptrend is still losing momentum. Today is the 5th day for the daily bars to move sideways but the daily, weekly and monthly MA's are up. Market is still in overbought territory and a correction is due but I do not know when it will come. As I have said many times a drop can come quickly. The longer the sideways trend goes on the more likely it is that the expected drop can affect the rising daily uptrend when it starts. Still waiting and watching for all signs of weakness in this big bull trend.

I want to add that the technical daily trend looks very much like a picture that use to move down to the bottom once it have started, in this case 12.000. This is my personal thoughts that I have had for some time. In a scenario like that the DOW could take the 2012 top first and then start this downtrend but it could also start from current level. This picture has no name and occurs not often. The last time I saw this picture was the monthly uptrend from March 2003 to October 2007. That was the road up to the all time high. Do not take this too serious right now. I might come back to this later.
This chart picture occurs on all time levels the same way. Looking at DOW's daily chart the trend starts June 5 with a three waves rally on upside. Then comes a correction and 2 more tops with higher and higher bottoms.Finally a new rally starts July 25 in three waves which use to be of the same length as the first rally. That top use to be the final end. During 2006 - 2007 I followed that up move and that paid of because I could pinpoint the 2007 top and tell that the target of the coming downtrend will be below 7.000.

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