DOW fell to a low of 12.741 Friday and rallied the last 15 minutes to close at 12.800. This close came in below the rising 8 day MA which is a warning sign that a new top will be difficult. Since the trend for the 2 hour chart is down and strong, there is a possibility that Monday can keep the trend down which makes the daily trend closer to a change on downside. However the daily main trend is still in tact now, well within its channel borders and a sudden drop is unlikely to get below 12.700 now. The gap at 12.882 must be covered. This long uptrend need a topping out process that could take several days. A drop down to 12.700 could be stopped by the rising 21 day MA.
I still do not believe in a close above 13.000 and we have probably seen this up trends top at 12.929.5. Bad news about Greece seems to be priced in. There are a few things that can make the DOW weaker and that is the bond markets where the German and US 10 year notes seems to have reached its highs and a downtrend could start quite soon. The Euro has nearly finished its uptrend and could also start falling soon.
The week will give a new piece to the puzzle.
I still do not believe in a close above 13.000 and we have probably seen this up trends top at 12.929.5. Bad news about Greece seems to be priced in. There are a few things that can make the DOW weaker and that is the bond markets where the German and US 10 year notes seems to have reached its highs and a downtrend could start quite soon. The Euro has nearly finished its uptrend and could also start falling soon.
The week will give a new piece to the puzzle.
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