15/11/2012

About myself and how I became an analyst. Many have asked about this


MY START IN ANALYZING
My personal history
I was born 1941 in Sweden. My parents divorced when I was five years old. I grow up with my mother and my three years younger brother in a small apartment in Lidingo, Stockholm. In 1963 I started law studies at the University of Uppsala. I got my degree 1967. My first job was at the Swedish tax authorities for two years. I then worked two years at a court. In 1972 I started my own law firm, in a small city in the north of Sweden called Sundsvall, with specialty in taxes. I was married 1964 and had a son and a daughter. The firm was profitable after one year and I lived the good life until 1977 when my wife and I divorced. She moved to Spain with our daughter and my son stayed with me. My law firm went very well. In 1981 I wanted to return to Stockholm and give up the law firm since we got a new law that said if you try to avoid taxes legally you will be taxed anyway. I could not give my clients advice anymore.
The small apartment in Lidingo where I grew up in became my new office and I bought a house where I lived with my son and my new girlfriend. Since I had worked with investments for ten years, written a book about investment diamonds I became a partner in an investment business for two years. Then in the spring of 1982 I got my hands on a Gold chart from an English analyst company. I became interested in doing charts myself. At this time there were no computers with ready made charts. I rented a Reuters screen that showed prices live of currencies and commodities. To make the charts I got big millimeter papers which I hanged on the walls all over my apartment.
At CET 22:00 every trading day I wrote down the closing prices in the U.S. plus the day’s high and low prices. I draw hi, low and close on my charts with a pencil. The English chart on gold had only two moving averages, nothing else.
Since my first chart was the daily performance of gold I also calculated the two moving averages (MA) on my calculator and put the curves on my chart. After a couple of months I had Gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper charts on my walls. I opened a trading account in London and sent orders by telex or over the phone. I was hooked for life on my new experiences.
I still lived on my saved money from the law firm and I still had a few old clients. My daughter left her mother in Spain and moved in with me and my son. She was 15 years old and my son 19. I spent more and more time at the office. I soon was there 16 hours a day doing my charts and trading. I just loved my new life and I lived with my charts day and night. I made only small trades and I always lost. So now and then I stopped trading for six months or so to make my analyst skills better and better. In 1985 I went to an analyst conference in America where I listened to a speech by Robert Prechter the first day. I was amazed by the wave theory he talked about so I bought two books from Prechter about R.N. Elliott and his wave theory. Back at home I read the books several times in a row so I nearly know them by heart. I started to think in Fibonacci numbers and waves while I was doing my charts. I got a few companies as clients for a daily telex service about currency movements where I predicted how the currencies would move the next day. That money was enough to keep me and my family afloat.
After three years finally my analysis started to become good, yes really good when it came to my daily reports on currencies. I could more or less pinpoint where the dollar would close next day against the German mark, yen, pound and Swiss franc. I could also tell next day’s movement by gold and silver and finally how the SP500 would move next. I did just read the news flash on my Reuters screen when it came to news and I had no knowledge about what went on in the world. Fundamentals were not something I used. I only used moving averages and the wave theory. The most important thing was how the MA:s  performed.
The few times I traded I lost. But I did not give up. In January 1987 my silver chart started to move sideways at the 5.50 area for months and I used several hours a day to find out when the break on upside would occur. I used a 100 MA and a 200 MA, calculated by hand every day and put on to the chart. And after several months I saw that both these MA:s were going to turn up and I saw that the 100 MA would cross the 200 MA in two weeks’ time. I then made the trade of my life by buying call options for the next few months for just a few cents each and I bought hundreds of them and just waited. March 20 they took off on upside with limit up every day for a week. It continued the next two weeks with limit up every day. I was rich. But one day after the usual limit up declaration silver suddenly fell 40 percent. I could not believe it but it was a fact. I still had a very good profit but I was definitely not rich any more. I waited for an upside rally and then sold off.
The important thing was that my analysis worked so well. Just a few months later my huge daily chart of SP500 started to look as if a big drop could occur in mid-October. I left all other charts and concentrated on this index. I sent my telexes telling my clients that a big drop could occur in all stock market indexes very soon. The Thursday before the Black Monday I bought huge amounts of sell options because I expected the drop to come on Friday but it did not. So Friday afternoon I sold all my put options. My son kept his put options over the weekend. I came to the office at 3 o’clock Monday finding my son celebrating. He just had earned 500 per cent on his put options. I missed it by one day and I was devastated. However my son took his profit later that day. None of us believed we just saw the beginning of the worst stock market crash for 48 years.
After four years of intensive studies I missed the Black Monday by one day. That changed my life for ever. Robert Prechter got the credit for having found the Black Monday just hours before it happened. He left his analyzing job for a long time because he was invited to tell how he did it all over America. I got his weekly report to clients and started to believe in his forecasts instead of continue to develop my own analytic skills.

No comments:

Post a Comment