First warning for a DOW bear market now.

DOW daily close line chart from late May until today CET 04.00. 8 and 21 MA. The last uptick is 4 hours old only. Upper dot line is price at 04.00. The horizontal line below is a possible break down point at 13.004.4 on a daily close.


The 2 highest points makes a double top. After the second top comes the first wave down. The second wave moves up to the lower top. From there the third wave has started on downside to current level. I expect an intraday low of 12.963 in the third wave to start with. If DOW gets below 12.974.5 and cannot get back and hold above that point I see a big risk for a continued fall down to the low of the chart at 12.094.5 from June 4.
If DOW should rally and close above 13.303 this coming Friday the weekly 8 MA will still be up but will most likely fall the week Nov 5.  The monthly trend will turn down if Oct 31 closes below 13.210.5.

These are my grounds for a first warning of a DOW bear market.