Monday in Asia DOW has fallen to current 13.070. Weekly and daily trends are down but the 2 hour trend is sideways. The 200 MA is rising and now at 12.983 and could become a floor for now. I expect sideways trading today. Europe opens in 5 minutes.
29/10/2012
26/10/2012
DOW and SP500 are in a VERY important situation now
US news CET 14:30 is about GDP annually and personal consumption and can affect the markets since they are in a very delicate situation with just a few points above crucial supports. For DOW the 13.000 mark is of greatest importance and so is 1.400 for SP500.
After bell news in US Thursday, Apple came in with bad news and all Asian markets fell and so did Europe and the US indexes. US markets open 15:30 and might react on Apple and the news.
The EURO has broken strongly on downside to a low of 1.2882. Next support is at 1.2825.
After bell news in US Thursday, Apple came in with bad news and all Asian markets fell and so did Europe and the US indexes. US markets open 15:30 and might react on Apple and the news.
The EURO has broken strongly on downside to a low of 1.2882. Next support is at 1.2825.
DOW and SP500 have taken new lows now trying to get below and hold very important support points.
DOW support point is 13.004.4 on daily close and intraday target is 12.963.
SP500 support point is 1.399.22 on daily close and target intraday is 1.378.60.
Both indexes has been just below the support points so far this morning in Europe. This can become a very dramatic trading day.
SP500 support point is 1.399.22 on daily close and target intraday is 1.378.60.
Both indexes has been just below the support points so far this morning in Europe. This can become a very dramatic trading day.
25/10/2012
DOW has now been working 34 hours to get above 13.156.2 without success.
Sellers seems to have long term sell orders at that point. The 2 hour trends 8 MA has now turned up which supports a break on upside but so far no result. Important News comes at CET 14.30 regarding GDP and jobs which can influence the markets movements in both directions.
First warning for a DOW bear market now.
The 2 highest points makes a double top. After the second top comes the first wave down. The second wave moves up to the lower top. From there the third wave has started on downside to current level. I expect an intraday low of 12.963 in the third wave to start with. If DOW gets below 12.974.5 and cannot get back and hold above that point I see a big risk for a continued fall down to the low of the chart at 12.094.5 from June 4.
If DOW should rally and close above 13.303 this coming Friday the weekly 8 MA will still be up but will most likely fall the week Nov 5. The monthly trend will turn down if Oct 31 closes below 13.210.5.
These are my grounds for a first warning of a DOW bear market.
24/10/2012
DOW, SP500 now 2 hour 8 MA up and could rally when US opens.
Dow R point 12.199.5, SP500 R points 1.421.17 and 1.424.67.
FTSE and DAX sideways and will probably follow the DOW up or down after Wall Street opens in 20 minutes.
FTSE and DAX sideways and will probably follow the DOW up or down after Wall Street opens in 20 minutes.
DOW broke 13.199.5 support point Tuesday to close at 13.103.2. Now trading 13.127 just before Europe opens Wednesday.
The six week sideways trend is now broken on downside but the weekly trend is still up. The daily and 2 hour trends are down. A test from below of 13.199.5 can happen. DOW has currently strong support from the rising 21 week MA at 13.115.
22/10/2012
21/10/2012
After Europe's close Friday the US indexe's continued down closing below the weekly 8 MA for the second week in a row. A continued fall Monday is likely
NAS is the worst performing index - falling sharply as the Apple bubble burst and the NAS is close to the 200 rising MA that could be a support. The five waves on upside are completed and we are now in the third wave on downside.
DOW and SP500 have the daily and 2 hour trends down and closed below the weekly 8 MA for the second week in a row. These indexes could stop falling because of the rising weekly 8 MA but the risk is big for further falls. The president election computers could technically hold the weekly trend sideways but big selling in Asia and Europe Monday could break the support points below.
DOW in detail: DOW was at 13.417 when Europe closed and then fell to a low of 13.309.5. Then a short correction up to 13.370 before a sharp drop down to the close at 13.340.5. Support for Monday is at 13.328.9 and 13.199.5.
It is difficult to not push the thoughts away what happened 25 years ago October 19, 1987 on a Monday. The black Monday which cut the DOW off 22 percent in 2 days. Hopefully this will not happen now.
In Europe the DAX and FTSE got the two hours trend down.
GOLD follows the main markets down and the EURO 2 hour trend is also down.
DOW and SP500 have the daily and 2 hour trends down and closed below the weekly 8 MA for the second week in a row. These indexes could stop falling because of the rising weekly 8 MA but the risk is big for further falls. The president election computers could technically hold the weekly trend sideways but big selling in Asia and Europe Monday could break the support points below.
DOW in detail: DOW was at 13.417 when Europe closed and then fell to a low of 13.309.5. Then a short correction up to 13.370 before a sharp drop down to the close at 13.340.5. Support for Monday is at 13.328.9 and 13.199.5.
It is difficult to not push the thoughts away what happened 25 years ago October 19, 1987 on a Monday. The black Monday which cut the DOW off 22 percent in 2 days. Hopefully this will not happen now.
In Europe the DAX and FTSE got the two hours trend down.
GOLD follows the main markets down and the EURO 2 hour trend is also down.
19/10/2012
All main indexes are falling, so far 8 week rising MA gives support. Here is SP500 daily and 2 hour chart just now
17/10/2012
Main indexes 2 hour trends are sideways or down.
Yesterdays tops hit strong R points and all indexes are trading sideways below those tops. DOW and SP500 2 hour trends 8 MA is turning sideways and can turn down in a few hours. The R points might hold. Follow the hourly trends now for positions.
GOLD in Euro has taken a new daily low at 1.334. The all time high was 1.386. The target could be 1.317.
The EURO has tested its 5 month high early this morning at 1.3171 but has fallen back, now at 1.3098.
All markets are behaving very nervously and the trading is still in the 6 weeks sideways trends. A break out of this trend is what the big traders are waiting for. As I have mentioned before, this trend can technically go on for another 2 weeks.
GOLD in Euro has taken a new daily low at 1.334. The all time high was 1.386. The target could be 1.317.
The EURO has tested its 5 month high early this morning at 1.3171 but has fallen back, now at 1.3098.
All markets are behaving very nervously and the trading is still in the 6 weeks sideways trends. A break out of this trend is what the big traders are waiting for. As I have mentioned before, this trend can technically go on for another 2 weeks.
DOW, SP500, DAX and FTSE weekly chart now
Since the 8 weekly MA is rising and thereby supporting these sideways trends they can continue theoretically for another 2 weeks until the US election. There is of course a possibility that the trends suddenly will break on up side or downside any time on big news. It is very seldom we have 6 weeks of sideways trend. To make a forecast in this situation is impossible.
16/10/2012
DOW and SP500 broke R points in the blogg below Monday after Europe had closed and rallied to next R area for DOW at 13.437 and SP500 1.442. DAX and FTSE made the same moves.
The 2 hour trends are up but the new R area has held in Asia and the indexes are both below the falling daily trend. This also means that the weekly bars are above the weekly 8 MA and bar number 6 is under construction. Usually four weeks sideways is enough for a change up or down but now we are in the 6 week moving sideways. Very nervous trading in all markets and no clear direction.
The technical picture supports both an upside and a downside move.
The fundamentals are the same and I now suspect that the US president election November 6 could be the first trigger for a bigger trend change. If that should be the case the small movements will continue another 3 weeks. When president Bush won his second election in 2004 a very powerful bull market started. The euro problems will of course hang over the markets these three weeks but so far the European politicians have manged to quickly come up with calming talk to keep the markets steady. The third thing is the company reports but so far more than 60 percent of the SP500 companies has shown better than expected results.
Anyway I will continue to look for weakness day by day in this bull market.
The technical picture supports both an upside and a downside move.
The fundamentals are the same and I now suspect that the US president election November 6 could be the first trigger for a bigger trend change. If that should be the case the small movements will continue another 3 weeks. When president Bush won his second election in 2004 a very powerful bull market started. The euro problems will of course hang over the markets these three weeks but so far the European politicians have manged to quickly come up with calming talk to keep the markets steady. The third thing is the company reports but so far more than 60 percent of the SP500 companies has shown better than expected results.
Anyway I will continue to look for weakness day by day in this bull market.
15/10/2012
ALL MAIN indexes takes new lows in Asia Monday.
DOW, SP500, NAS and FTSE takes new lows in Asia Monday and DAX opens below Fridays low in Frankfurt CET 08:00. All indexes are in a strong daily down trends. There are still some resistance points before a break down could occur but as it looks now they can easily be taken out later today or tomorrow.
The EURO, GOLD and SILVER also got the daily trends down which means that a big drop is in the cards now even here.
14/10/2012
DOW daily, weekly and monthly charts with comments.
12/10/2012
SWED's picture looks like this now
DOW, SP500 and DAX daily trends down and weekly trends up
Very small movements at CET 12.00 in Europe and earlier in Asia. US opens in 3 hours.
The 3 strongest indexes DOW SP500 and DAX are still holding above the strong support from the weekly 8 MA. This is the fifth week sideways and no signs yet of a break down but a new top does not seem likely.
FTSE daily trend is sideways now, weekly trend down.
SWED use to be the index which shows the way for the markets. SWED has the daily, weekly and monthly trends down and has the overall weakest picture of the indexes.
Since there are more than 9 hours left of the trading week I do not know what eventually will happen and the 2 hour trends do not give a lead we just have to wait and see.
The 3 strongest indexes DOW SP500 and DAX are still holding above the strong support from the weekly 8 MA. This is the fifth week sideways and no signs yet of a break down but a new top does not seem likely.
FTSE daily trend is sideways now, weekly trend down.
SWED use to be the index which shows the way for the markets. SWED has the daily, weekly and monthly trends down and has the overall weakest picture of the indexes.
Since there are more than 9 hours left of the trading week I do not know what eventually will happen and the 2 hour trends do not give a lead we just have to wait and see.
11/10/2012
DOW, SP500, DAX and FTSE are holding in strong support areas now.
Today Thursday is the last day for a strong rally to keep the possibility for a new high open. Friday the 21 day MA will turn down and stop that possibility. This weeks drops has reached very strong support areas and the main indexes must now rally to avoid a weekly close below the 8 MA. DOW, SP500 and DAX still looks steady in the big perspective but must not make new daily closing lows.
These indexes could easily change trend to down before the weekend otherwise.
SWED, CAC, IBEX and NAS look vulnerable for further falls.
The global stock markets are in a very difficult situation right now and a bad out come these two last trading days can open the way for substantial losses the coming weeks.
The fundamental situation looks bad and so far the first reports for the third quarter regarding how the companies see the future is disappointing. The US election polls now have Romney in a small lead. All good news regarding the European crisis seems to be in and the picture forward is far from strong.
Gold and the EURO are unstable as well. Low turnover and mainly computer trading keep the investors out of the markets and 33 percent of the money is said to be in bonds.
The robots will decide were the main trends will go now.
These indexes could easily change trend to down before the weekend otherwise.
SWED, CAC, IBEX and NAS look vulnerable for further falls.
The global stock markets are in a very difficult situation right now and a bad out come these two last trading days can open the way for substantial losses the coming weeks.
The fundamental situation looks bad and so far the first reports for the third quarter regarding how the companies see the future is disappointing. The US election polls now have Romney in a small lead. All good news regarding the European crisis seems to be in and the picture forward is far from strong.
Gold and the EURO are unstable as well. Low turnover and mainly computer trading keep the investors out of the markets and 33 percent of the money is said to be in bonds.
The robots will decide were the main trends will go now.
09/10/2012
Main indexes and the EURO has all broken on downside on the 2 hour charts
So far only one and a half day has been traded this week and my forecast was a calm two days but even though the weekly movements are very small the 2 hour trend could very well take the markets further down later today. NAS, IBEX and CAC could easily start falling because there are no support lines to stop a sharper drop. Apple's break down Monday could very well continue and take the rest of the markets lower. Alcoa report after close tonight could make the markets vulnerable as well in advance.
It seems that the test of the tops will not materialize now. My feeling with all the bad news from IMF and the World bank regarding the global economy and the small volume in the markets could easily make the technical pictures become bad.
I have earlier said that a fall could come in the weeks October 15 or 22 but I have also pointed out the danger of next Friday if no new highs are taken. I now think we should be vigilant already today and the rest of the week and follow the two and one hour trends carefully for the time being.
It seems that the test of the tops will not materialize now. My feeling with all the bad news from IMF and the World bank regarding the global economy and the small volume in the markets could easily make the technical pictures become bad.
I have earlier said that a fall could come in the weeks October 15 or 22 but I have also pointed out the danger of next Friday if no new highs are taken. I now think we should be vigilant already today and the rest of the week and follow the two and one hour trends carefully for the time being.
08/10/2012
DOW, SP500, DAX, NAS and FTSE 56 week charts now
DOW, SP500 and DAX are in very strong positions but NAS and FTSE look less likely to continue the up trends.
Last Friday's US good labor news sent the DOW to a new 5 year high with a few points intraday and close. SP500 reacted the same way but no highs. DAX rallied as well and kept a strong position for the beginning of this week.
FTSE rose strongly as well but fell back big before close and NAS is still in a sideways trend.
The technical picture for DOW, SP500 and DAX are strong regarding the daily and weekly trends. FTSE has still a falling weekly trend on opening Monday.
Tuesday after the US close the first company will release the third quarter result and start several weeks of reports. I expect at least Monday and Tuesday to hold up but later in the week especially Friday the technical situation could start to deteriorate if not new highs are taken.
US indexes open for the week in four minutes in Asia and before Europe opens I hope I have a more clear picture. One thing is still for sure, October will be the most interesting month regarding all trends in 2012.
FTSE rose strongly as well but fell back big before close and NAS is still in a sideways trend.
The technical picture for DOW, SP500 and DAX are strong regarding the daily and weekly trends. FTSE has still a falling weekly trend on opening Monday.
Tuesday after the US close the first company will release the third quarter result and start several weeks of reports. I expect at least Monday and Tuesday to hold up but later in the week especially Friday the technical situation could start to deteriorate if not new highs are taken.
US indexes open for the week in four minutes in Asia and before Europe opens I hope I have a more clear picture. One thing is still for sure, October will be the most interesting month regarding all trends in 2012.
07/10/2012
05/10/2012
US unemployment figures for Sept will be released CET 14:30 and will as usual have big impact on the markets.
The 8 day MA is rising again on all main indexes and Thursdays highs reached new weekly highs and are now back in the top areas again. A positive result in the news can easily get new highs especially for the DOW and SP500.
FTSE has only a few point left to get above 5860 and eventually stay there which means for next Monday that the bear market warning is lowered to sideways trend or even up. This Friday and the whole of next week will then give all indexes time to move either to the tops or break out to new highs.
However the US close tonight might not be a new high because next week start the reports for third quarter earnings which can be bad. It is also now only one month to the US election and Obama's computer traders will not see a bad stock market before that date. On the other hand his opponent would not mind seeing a drop in the indexes now. It is impossible to make a correct forecast with these fundamentals and even difficult to draw any conclusions of the technical facts from the hourly trends.
Anyway it will be a very exiting month and maybe a clear technical picture will appear during the period.
FTSE has only a few point left to get above 5860 and eventually stay there which means for next Monday that the bear market warning is lowered to sideways trend or even up. This Friday and the whole of next week will then give all indexes time to move either to the tops or break out to new highs.
However the US close tonight might not be a new high because next week start the reports for third quarter earnings which can be bad. It is also now only one month to the US election and Obama's computer traders will not see a bad stock market before that date. On the other hand his opponent would not mind seeing a drop in the indexes now. It is impossible to make a correct forecast with these fundamentals and even difficult to draw any conclusions of the technical facts from the hourly trends.
Anyway it will be a very exiting month and maybe a clear technical picture will appear during the period.
What to Look For in Friday’s Jobs Report
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/what-to-look-for-in-fridays-jobs-report-2/?partner=rss&emc=rss
04/10/2012
FTSE, DOW, SP500 and DAX makes new rallies in Europe
FTSE 2 hr trend is up and the aim is to make the 8 day MA to turn up as well. Today's high was 5.854 touching an important R point and then dive back to 5820. Very choppy but 5860 is the point to get over and hold for the 8 day WEEKLY chart to change its downtrend. At the same time many traders are now looking for short positions high up. This game will probably continue. FTSE has support at the rising 21 day MA and Friday or later today the 8 MA can turn up but it will be far below the 21 MA. Difficult to tell the outcome right now.
DOW is still strongest and the 8 day MA will turn up latest Friday before crossing the 21 MA which means a god chance to take a new high soon. The same goes for SP500. DAX is still trading exactly as the DOW so from a technical perspective a new high could be the target.
DOW is still strongest and the 8 day MA will turn up latest Friday before crossing the 21 MA which means a god chance to take a new high soon. The same goes for SP500. DAX is still trading exactly as the DOW so from a technical perspective a new high could be the target.
02/10/2012
All main indexes daily charts 56 days with 8 and 21 day MA. Here you can exactly compare the markets and the EURO at the bottom.
FTSE rally top was 5843 and the close 5.791, below the falling 8 and 34 MA. This morning in Asia small range in 5.800 area.
Monday was an explosive day in all main indexes, especially DOW, SP500 and FTSE with a long bar and finally a close at the middle. I have 1 short FTSE at 5.838 which I hopefully will keep as an investment.
Asia has been very quiet and DAX opened 10 minutes ago at Wall Street close level. All main indexes have the 8 day MA down and the 21 day MA up and are trading between these lines. FTSE is close to cross its 8 MA with the falling 34 MA but has not made that yet.
US indexes still gives a solid uptrend impression. DAX looks still as the DOW and seems strong. FTSE and CAC are the only European indexes that seems vulnerable right now. I expect trading within yesterdays Hi - Lo and no change in the sideways to up main trends.
Asia has been very quiet and DAX opened 10 minutes ago at Wall Street close level. All main indexes have the 8 day MA down and the 21 day MA up and are trading between these lines. FTSE is close to cross its 8 MA with the falling 34 MA but has not made that yet.
US indexes still gives a solid uptrend impression. DAX looks still as the DOW and seems strong. FTSE and CAC are the only European indexes that seems vulnerable right now. I expect trading within yesterdays Hi - Lo and no change in the sideways to up main trends.
01/10/2012
FTSE and US indexes rallies on short covering from Wall Street open.
FTSE aim seems to be to get above 5.860 and hold that area because the 8 day MA can then turn up. The high so far has been 5.843 where we started to sell a few shorts believing that 5.860 should be to high and that point is the low of the first wave in the 2 hour chart which technically should hold. Trends are up and there is no sign of slowdown by the hourly trends. Continues to wait for the tops or a confirmation of 5843 as top.
October will be the month for trend change down. My current date for the start of a drop is Oct 15 - 22. Preliminaries of course. But since I believe FTSE have double warnings for a bear market, I also think that the other indexes will follow. This forecast could be changed but the US indexes seem quite comfortable in their uptrends so far in the new quarter.
FTSE had a sharp rally up to 5.808 where I think the top was. Now sideways, maybe for a few hours.
It seems so far to have been a short covering rally which means some big players took out the short positions from last Friday to sell themselves at the top for short positions. The price now seems to be hovering around 5.800. The picture will clear during the day but I will follow FTSE and I know that many of you sold close to 5.808. I never use stops because today's computer traders will take them out even if you think it is impossible with a sudden rally to my position.
I am now and then trading for fun with small positions to engage in the trade situation. Very few people can be good analyser's and traders. Statistics say that only 5 % of traders make profits. Of these 5 % only 3% make very much money.
When I started in 1983 I had no idea about anything so I have learnt it the hard way that I am not a trader. A trader has only two enemies, fear and greed, which is the only thing he has got in his brain. The analyst's brain is calm and you sit in a completely calm place that you love. No phone, no family, no knocking on your door. You just live your life with your computer and eat and sleep when you feel like it. Relax Saturday and Sunday. A very harmonious life you just love what you are doing. I was in a situation like that from 1983 to 1988. Now I have it again since a couple of years. Nothing disturbs me.
The short positions we are looking for now in FTSE are long term investments. Maybe for 3 years. The days and weeks it will take to get good very high up shorts are at the same place the computers do it but we do it by hand. It is nothing a hate more than so called profit taking. This is because it will take a month to get back into the market. FTSE only so far has a second warning for a bear market. It has not started yet and I can always be wrong. I want you to be in the 3% group and then we must take the positions where the best traders takes theirs. So no stops, no profit taking. Only small losses when waiting for the final top to sell. I have 3 shorts medium 5.801.02 price.That is above the 34 day falling MA and at the same place where the falling 8 week MA is today. I will earn 3 pounds per point. My capital is $ 573 so I use 25 % for these 3 shorts.
I am now and then trading for fun with small positions to engage in the trade situation. Very few people can be good analyser's and traders. Statistics say that only 5 % of traders make profits. Of these 5 % only 3% make very much money.
When I started in 1983 I had no idea about anything so I have learnt it the hard way that I am not a trader. A trader has only two enemies, fear and greed, which is the only thing he has got in his brain. The analyst's brain is calm and you sit in a completely calm place that you love. No phone, no family, no knocking on your door. You just live your life with your computer and eat and sleep when you feel like it. Relax Saturday and Sunday. A very harmonious life you just love what you are doing. I was in a situation like that from 1983 to 1988. Now I have it again since a couple of years. Nothing disturbs me.
The short positions we are looking for now in FTSE are long term investments. Maybe for 3 years. The days and weeks it will take to get good very high up shorts are at the same place the computers do it but we do it by hand. It is nothing a hate more than so called profit taking. This is because it will take a month to get back into the market. FTSE only so far has a second warning for a bear market. It has not started yet and I can always be wrong. I want you to be in the 3% group and then we must take the positions where the best traders takes theirs. So no stops, no profit taking. Only small losses when waiting for the final top to sell. I have 3 shorts medium 5.801.02 price.That is above the 34 day falling MA and at the same place where the falling 8 week MA is today. I will earn 3 pounds per point. My capital is $ 573 so I use 25 % for these 3 shorts.
Chicago Fed warned on high-frequency trading, SEC slow to respond
More than two years ago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago was pushing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to get serious about the dangers of super fast computer-driven trading. Only now is the SEC getting around to taking a closer look at some of those issues.
Critics of the SEC say the delay is part of a pattern of inaction in dealing with the fallout from high frequency trading and shows that the regulator doesn't yet fully appreciate how fears of machine-driven market meltdowns are driving investors away from U.S. markets.
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