Why I think a bear market might start in September 2012

This picture makes me believe that this index can start a bear market from now to September 28.
The chart is a monthly chart - every bar is one month - and the small bar to the right is September , only two days old. There are 2 MA:s. The upper green is a 21 MA and the other is a 8 month MA. The 21 MA is down and is currently at 1055. To change this MA to up the price must get above the first bars close which I see as impossible. The 8 MA is up but has not crossed the 21 MA. To do that it must during September get above the eight bars close from the right of the chart. I see this as unlikely after the end of September 21. This means that I see a strong possibility that the 8 MA will turn down before crossing the 21 MA which is in my definition a bear market.

This chart is SWED. The Swedish krona has moved in the same pattern against the Euro since May indicating that many Europeans hold Swedish stocks now because of the euros risk. The SWED index has for many years shown the way for the main indexes.