FTSE100 second warning for bear market.

After the September close FTSE shows negative signs on the monthly, weekly and daily trends which could soon start a bear market. If I am correct other indexes will follow. I believe October to be crucial. Here are the 3 charts for FTSE  that makes me do this call. Please click the charts for details.

The monthly chart here shows that from tomorrow the 8 and 21 MA will continue down with the 8 MA below the 21 MA.

 The weekly chart with the 8 MA will turn down Monday and stay down for at least 2 weeks.

The daily chart has made five waves on upside with a three waves extension which is the end of the uptrend. The 8 MA will soon cross the falling 34 days MA.

DOW low has been 13.396.6. The rising 21 MA which is my target this week is at 13.386.4.

DOW has just taken a new weekly low at 13.396.5

All indexes are now in a downtrend to test the current lows

FTSE seems very likely to get a long term sell signal today.

The turning down of the 8 WEEK MA seems now highly likely after today's close at CET 22:00. We are now looking to add long term short positions as close as possible to 5.814. Now trading 5.785. A rally later from the US traders is what I am hoping for. This is my first call for long term short positions. Today could be very choppy with extreme rallies from the US traders. If a rally starts we will try to short that peak even if it goes well above 5.814. The only thing that can stop a downtrend the coming weeks is a close today above 5.861. There is also a possibility that the drop can start next week.

All main indexes are giving up on up side and hourly trends are now down. Could be ugly today.

Spain's rising debt costs eat up austerity gains

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9572501/Spains-rising-debt-costs-eat-up-austerity-gains.html

Latest on Spain in detail

IBEX which is the big winner since July 23 has risen 38 %, is now correcting down to the 21 day rising MA.

This is the last day of the quarter and the closing point is very important for the for the long trends.

SWED is at the rising 21 day MA and is getting support there now.

FTSE and DAX are trying to hold the recovered break down points and behaves like the DOW and SP500 in the blogg below.

DOW and SP500 break down points at 13.501.5 and 1.450.25 has been under attack for 15 hours but failed. I expect this long test to stop soon and the 2 hour trends to turn down unless new good news comes soon.

Spain must leave the euro

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/9572359/Spain-must-leave-the-euro.html

Spain Unveils Sweeping Budget Cuts

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/business/global/spain-unveils-sweeping-budget-cuts.html?pagewanted=1

The release of this news started the late rally in DOW from 1.435 to 1.500 exactly below important R point. Market closes in 15 minutes.

DOW hourly trends are up but the index has lots of resistance points on upside.

DOW one and two hour trends are up, currently at 13.482, holding between the falling daily 8 day MA and rising 21 day MA where the range is 13.336 - 13.529.
DOW has many R points on the upside with the most important at 13.501.5.

DAX looks more or less the same as DOW.
SP500 is holding just above the rising 21 day MA with small movements so far.
FTSE is below the 21 day MA with small movements


There will be a lot of US news at CET 14:30 that can move the markets.

FTSE breaks last R point and DOW accelerates on downside

FTSE now a low at 5.757 just above last resistance point for a bigger drop.

DOW has just taken a new daily low at 13.435. The 21 day MA which is my target is at 13.350 at present

DAX has been below its break down point at 7.278.21 but is holding that area at present. FTSE is traded around its critical point of 5.772.25

SP500 has fallen to first target, the 21 day rising MA. NAS has gone through the 21 MA and also below its rising 34 day MA. DOW has just fallen a bit and has long to go to reach 21 MA.

FTSE very close to bear market warning

FTSE is now trading below its 8 WEEK MA at 5.800. If the trend gets below critical 5.772.25 that MA will turn down. If a weekly close on Friday gets below the critical point the 8 MA will stay down for at least two weeks as it looks right now. As usual FTSE is first to show the way. Market is moving slowly now but that can change easily when the US wakes up. If FTSE will close below 5.772.25, which we might see already today or the next two days, that is a sell signal.

On the 30 min chart close the break down point is 5.801.63. The last close was 5.795.37. A retest from below on the break point can occur. If that point holds and FTSE takes a new low the target will be 5.740 which indicates that the 8 MA will turn down today.

DOW and SP500 have now got below yestersdays low and the rising 21 MA:s seem to be the targets now.

However the DOW moves only a few points below so a retest of the low might take place. SP500 is falling longer but still no big sell pressure. FTSE and DAX are closing in on their breaking point to the downside but here everything goes slowly as well. 

DOW, SP500, NAS, FTSE and DAX 8 days MA:s are down and the 21 MA:s are up in early Europe trade.

The US indexes closed at Tuesdays bottom and has broken the break down points but Asia has lifted the indexes which are now moving sideways above the closing points trying to get above the break down points. FTSE and DAX have not taken new lows yesterday or early this morning and the trends for today so far are sideways and they  can go both up and down after current consolidation. So far there are no clear signs that the sharp fall the last hour on Wall Street will continue. NAS is the only index that has closed below the 21 day MA.

The Euro has taken a new daily low and is just above its rising 21 day MA which I expect will give support.

DOW cannot retake break point. Target is 13.330 at first.

DOW, SP500 and NAS have now broken the 8 days toptrend on downside and all daily 8 day MA:s are down.

NAS has already fallen to its 21 day MA where it currently has support. This 21 day MA is the first target for the DOW and SP500 as well. There is a possibility that DOW can retest the break out point tomorrow, but the warning in this mornings blog has now been full filled.There is 32 minutes left on Wall Street and the DOW is right now trying to retest the breakout point at 13.494.6  from below but has so far failed.

The DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX daily trends are still up but can easily change to down now. We are at a crucial point for the up trends and the risk for the trends to change to down could be very near and happen suddenly from now on.

The 2 hour trends are moving sideways with no clear direction. The daily trends are also moving sideways or slightly up. Any big fundamental news can change this situation very fast. Either there will be a new leg up or a first leg down. The turnovers are still small so a speculative intervention by some big players can easily occur. The last 8 days sideways trend has been made up of rallies to get short positions as high as possible in my view for the big traders. Now we have come to a point that a real outbreak must come soon. The trends can go on like this the whole week but we should be prepared for a change from now on. The robot traders are very well aware of this situation and I believe they are the main players in all markets right now. 

'Gentle giant' Paul Volcker has too little time left to fix the world

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9561349/Gentle-giant-Paul-Volcker-has-too-little-time-left-to-fix-the-world.html

DOW and FTSE day and 2 hour chart below. Last week in the month is coming up and it will be exiting because the 8 day MA:s will now show if it is the end of the uptrend or the beginning of a downtrend.

Dow closed Friday at the bottom which indicates an eventual end of the uptrend. There is a double top and only a new top can stop what could be the beginning of a downtrend next week. The 8 day MA can turn down any day this week. Here below is the 2 hour trend with the drop the last 2 hours Friday.

This is FTSE day chart where the close came in below the 8 day MA. Will follow Dow in all movements this week.

Here is FTSE 2 hour trend that is weaker than the Dow but will follow next move in trend with Dow 2 hour chart above

QE3 will not fix America's problems, warns Paul Volcker

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9559082/QE3-will-not-fix-Americas-problems-warns-Paul-Volcker.html

DOW has now made a triple top on the 2 hour chart at 13.651.5 and has got a sell signal on the 30 minutes chart. Watch Up for eventual downside from now.

Obama or Romney, stock market loses 20% by 2016

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-or-romney-stock-market-loses-20-by-2016-2012-09-21?pagenumber=1

This is a very good story about the US markets from Marketwatch.

Spain will be safe next week

FT Exclusive
Thursday September 20 2012


EU in talks over Spanish rescue plan
EU authorities are working behind the scenes to pave the way for a new Spanish rescue programme and unlimited bond buying by the European Central Bank, by helping Madrid craft an economic reform programme that will be unveiled next week.

The EURO is leading the down trend. Here is the 2 hour chart right now

The chart indicates that the downtrend will continue and the daily trend is now below the rising 8 day MA which could produce an upside correction later. 

The charts in the blog below says everything.

The three biggest indexes daily trends are up and you see the blue 8 day MA on the last picture, DOW daily chart how the rising 8 day MA so far keeps the trend up. The 2 hour trends also look the same and here you see for the DOW a clear double top just waiting to take a new low but there is still a possibility of a rally today or beginning of next week.

A new interesting end of a week.

DOW, SP500 and FTSE 2 hour trends are down - see the first 3 charts - but the daily trends are up and the 8 day rising MA gives support so far. See daily DOW at the bottom.

US Meltdowns: History Lessons for the Euro

I really recommend this story for everyone interested in the current crisis.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49084046//

Spanish aid would come with 'very tough conditions': Juncker

http://www.expatica.com/es/news/local_news/spanish-aid-would-come-with-very-tough-conditions--juncker_244371.html

EURO 2 hour trend is down. All main indexes moves slowly sideways but the downside seems more likely later today.

Merkel Backs Draghi, Says ECB Plan Doesn't Violate Mandate

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49068981.

Asia changes DOW's 2 hour trend to up. Target seems to be the top at 13.651.5

SP500 and FTSE two hour 8 MA's are also up now. These three indexes are the only US - Europe that is trading in Asia. DAX opens 08:00 and the rest at 09:00.
Japan NI225 and Hong kong HSI have just taken new daily highs.

EURO, FTSE, DAX, SWED and CAC have the 2 hour trends down

Main Europeans indexes now seems to continue on down side since one and/or two hour trends are down. FTSE leads the way. CAC has already the DAILY trend sideways and is below the 8 day MA. FTSE 250 has not broken the 2007 top and seems to retreat. The whole picture is a first warning signal that the  European tops could have been seen.

DOW and SP500 two hour trends down. Target rising 8 day MA

DOW and SP500 continued movement now unclear. Trend sideways

DOW and SP500 seems to break on downside before today's close.

The main markets have hardly moved before CET 14.30. The longest trading are DOW and SP500 which opened at 00.00. The movements today is exactly the same. I have got a first warning that today's trend might move on downside soon. That means a correction or profit taking. The weekly and daily trends are strongly up but a correction is needed soon. The hourly trends tells me that if there is no surprises in US or interventions by robots the trend has peaked.

Earnings in United States Are Beginning to Feel a Pinch

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/17/business/earnings-outlook-in-us-dims-as-global-economy-slows.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

This story shows what is coming in earnings in the U.S. Not very good.

For These Four Nations, 2012 is Worse Than the Great Recession

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49056918

SP500 jumps 20 points on Fed news to close at 1.459.62 Thursday.

SP500 monthly chart from 1985 until now. We are 105 points from the all time high at 1.564.43. From current level 1.459.62 there are many resistance points now which can slow down further immediate advancement.
Today Friday there is a weekly R point at 1.477. The picture with three tops looks like 1962 to 1974. I will come back to that later depending on the chart.

Here is the daily bar chart showing yesterdays rally and today's trading in Asia now. The uptrend has a strong momentum but I would not be surprised if profit taking sets in later today. The 2 hour trend is very strong on upside and further advancement is possible when Europe opens in 2,5 hours. 

Spain to watch borrowing costs before bailout decision

http://www.expatica.com/es/news/local_news/spain-to-watch-borrowing-costs-before-bailout-decision_243643.html

The final day on my News List September 6 blog has started.

So far all news have been very good for the markets and among the main indexes many have taken new highs. Today we are waiting for for the Fed's decision  at CET 18:30 regarding QE3 stimulation for the US economy.

I have chosen to show and follow the SP500 from now until close in this regard.

Here is the weekly chart from 2007 all time high until now. The index is now at 1.437. All time high weekly close is at 1.561, the top 2007. The index is just below a strong resistance at the bottom on the first wave down from the top at 1.439. The second resistance lies at 1.466. The news will send SP500 up or down. This is the big picture.

This is the daily chart now since March 2012. You see how the current price is very close to move higher from 1.437. You also see the blue rising 8 day MA above the 21 MA. The technical big pictures are in a strong uptrend but if you look at the daily bar chart below - one bar is one day - you see that there has been four days sideways trading before today. This hesitation to go higher comes from the strong first resistance point on the weekly chart above.

It will be very interesting to see if Bernanke can take out that strong resistance point  later today at 1.439.

German court ruling comes at CET 10.00. All markets have risen in anticipation on rumors. Will there be selling on the news ? The EURO and the DAX will show the way. All trend lines are up now one hour before the ruling, many at new highs.

DOW, SP500, NAS, FTSE and DAX have now turned the 2 hour trends on downside in Asia. There are gaps on downside from the US close but the charts look like the falls might be serious, coming down to the rising 8 MA in the daily trends. Later today the US players might try to close the gaps which could be used to take short positions. A very exiting day has started

DOW's 2 hour trend is now sideways instead of up

SP500, NAS and DAX have taken new 2012 highs. All trends are up. Now waiting for U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for August at CET 14:30. Consensus is 130.000 new jobs.

Rajoy calls for end to risk premium burdening Spain

http://www.expatica.com/es/news/local_news/rajoy-calls-for-end-to-risk-premium-burdening-spain_242720.html

GOLD and SILVER takes new highs in all currencies.

Gold in 1.709 USD/oz and 1.355 EUR/oz. Silver in 32.86 dollar. Very strong uptrend monthly, weekly and daily. 

Watch up for big news September 6,7, 12 and 13.

September 6, ECB Draghi press conference bond buying
                   7, US non farm payrolls for August
                  12, German court sentence legality for payments.
                        Bank regulations
                        Dutch elections
                  13, FOMC 2 day meeting on QE (quantitative easing)

Any one of these news can send the markets very high or low. Some of the news could start a new trend.  
                   

HSI.I in Hong kong is most likely now in a bear market

The monthly chart shows that the 8 MA has turned down without crossing the 21 falling MA which also is down. There is technically possibilities to change this but I think it is unlikely. Compare with FTSE and SWED in the two blogs below and read why in the SWED blog.

FTSE also indicates a bear market start in September

The FTSE monthly chart is similar to the SWED chart shown and discussed in the blogg below. The same reasons applies.

Why I think a bear market might start in September 2012

This picture makes me believe that this index can start a bear market from now to September 28.
The chart is a monthly chart - every bar is one month - and the small bar to the right is September , only two days old. There are 2 MA:s. The upper green is a 21 MA and the other is a 8 month MA. The 21 MA is down and is currently at 1055. To change this MA to up the price must get above the first bars close which I see as impossible. The 8 MA is up but has not crossed the 21 MA. To do that it must during September get above the eight bars close from the right of the chart. I see this as unlikely after the end of September 21. This means that I see a strong possibility that the 8 MA will turn down before crossing the 21 MA which is in my definition a bear market.

This chart is SWED. The Swedish krona has moved in the same pattern against the Euro since May indicating that many Europeans hold Swedish stocks now because of the euros risk. The SWED index has for many years shown the way for the main indexes.

GOLD and SILVER in strong up trend which will go to new all times highs

Here are the weekly charts for Gold and Silver (below)
- one bar is one week - since April 2010 until now. You see the lines drawn. The pictures are in my view triangles which have broken out on upside. If I am correct the target for gold is 2.058 dollar/oz and for silver 55 dollar/oz.