29/02/2012
DOW 2 hour chart now.
DOW takes new intraday high at 13.053.2 and then turns around to take a daily low at 12.925.7
DOW has now got a 2 hour sell signal making the 13.000 a difficult target today. The daily low is at 12.925.7. Support for DOW at 12.921.6. A break below this point could send the index below 12.800. First resistance on upside is at 12.982.
Details later about what happened
Details later about what happened
28/02/2012
What does the 13.002.9 close mean for the the market now ?
The close has mainly a psychological impact. The immediate market impact is none since the market several times during the last six days has been trading above 13.000. The monthly, weekly and daily trends are still holding up well but we now have a triple top and a double bottom during the six days and a break on the upside or downside must come sooner or later. I want to see a daily close above 13.052.5 for giving a green light to take on the 2007 top. Here is the daily bar chart since Dec 15. The last six days DOW has moved sideways as you can see.
Wednesday ECB will lend the European banks more money. It is expected to be between 300 and 500 billion euros. The market and the euro will most certainly react on the news how much has been lent.
Wednesday ECB will lend the European banks more money. It is expected to be between 300 and 500 billion euros. The market and the euro will most certainly react on the news how much has been lent.
DOW support at 12.979.1 held . Look at what happened.
Durable goods orders for January fell 4 %. DOW broke 8 hours trading range 13.011 - 13.030 on downside to a low at 12.976. Now trading 12.985.
All European indexes fell in the same pattern as DOW. News about durable goods in the U.S. makes every index in the world fall simultaneously. That is my evidence that how the DOW moves everyone else move during certain periods. What happens in the U.S. happens at the same time and pattern in Finland for instance
All European indexes fell in the same pattern as DOW. News about durable goods in the U.S. makes every index in the world fall simultaneously. That is my evidence that how the DOW moves everyone else move during certain periods. What happens in the U.S. happens at the same time and pattern in Finland for instance
DOW 2 hour closes continuation from Monday. DOW now testing the top area.
27/02/2012
DOW closed Monday at 12.981.9.
DOW fell in Europe exactly to the support point 12.897. When US opened the DOW rallied from this low during 2 hours to 13.025. During the next 4 hours the DOW traded sideways and reached today's high at 13.025 just 55 minutes before the close. The market then fell back to end at 12.981.9.
We now have a double top at 13.030.6 and a double bottom at 12.879 for the last five trading days. Normally this should be the trading range for the next few days. However the US rally Monday was not normal trading in my view but an intervention by professionals to take out all stops on short positions in Europe, which was successful. It had nothing to do with fundamentals at all.
Since the big players are active now it is difficult to tell the next daily move. The trades that are used is computerized and can go below or above key points and then suddenly turn around. I will watch Tuesdays trading and blog as usual and do my best.
We now have a double top at 13.030.6 and a double bottom at 12.879 for the last five trading days. Normally this should be the trading range for the next few days. However the US rally Monday was not normal trading in my view but an intervention by professionals to take out all stops on short positions in Europe, which was successful. It had nothing to do with fundamentals at all.
Since the big players are active now it is difficult to tell the next daily move. The trades that are used is computerized and can go below or above key points and then suddenly turn around. I will watch Tuesdays trading and blog as usual and do my best.
DOW 2 hour closes chart from Feb 16 until now. Risk for further drop.
26/02/2012
Outlook for week Feb 26
DOW and SP500 have now taken new highs for 10 weeks. The daily up trends are strong and there are no signs of of momentum loss.
I will continue to concentrate on the DOW which is the market leader and the first index to give a sign of trend change. The last four days there has been two top hits intraday at 13.030.6 but so far no close above 13.000. The two tops could be seen as a double top right now and resistance points. If broken the very important resistance point from May 2008 at 13.052.5 on a weekly close will be crucial to get above. On the downside 12. 879 should give support. From a technical, historical and psychological point the coming week will be very interesting regarding the DOW.
SP500 daily picture looks the same as the DOW. However SP500 has so far got a high at 1.370.30 and the 2011 top at 1.376.30 is the first resistance.
I will continue to concentrate on the DOW which is the market leader and the first index to give a sign of trend change. The last four days there has been two top hits intraday at 13.030.6 but so far no close above 13.000. The two tops could be seen as a double top right now and resistance points. If broken the very important resistance point from May 2008 at 13.052.5 on a weekly close will be crucial to get above. On the downside 12. 879 should give support. From a technical, historical and psychological point the coming week will be very interesting regarding the DOW.
SP500 daily picture looks the same as the DOW. However SP500 has so far got a high at 1.370.30 and the 2011 top at 1.376.30 is the first resistance.
25/02/2012
24/02/2012
23/02/2012
DOW broke its intraday trading range Wednesday and dropped to a low of 12.911.6 and then closed at 12.937.3.
Today in Asia the trading has been slow with DOW between 12.916 and 12.952. The rising 8 day MA is so far a strong resistance point for all indexes and the uptrend is solid. I still expect a new test of the 13.000 area within the next few days. The 2 hour trends are now sideways. Europe opens in five minutes.
22/02/2012
21/02/2012
20/02/2012
DOW and SP500 opens with a big gaps on upside Monday i Asia.
DOW closed Friday at 12.948.6 and opened Monday in Asia at 13.030. The fifth wave have now started and the target is the all time high in the 14.000 area. There are many resistance points on the way and the first is a weekly close at 13.052.5 from April 2008.
SP500 which closed Friday at 1.360.80 and opened Monday at 1.370.30 has not yet taken 2011 high at 1.376.30 which now is a resistance point.
The EURO opened higher as well now trading at 1.3219.
The markets are pricing in a positive outcome in Europe today regarding Greece.
Wall Street is closed today for the Presidents Day.
SP500 which closed Friday at 1.360.80 and opened Monday at 1.370.30 has not yet taken 2011 high at 1.376.30 which now is a resistance point.
The EURO opened higher as well now trading at 1.3219.
The markets are pricing in a positive outcome in Europe today regarding Greece.
Wall Street is closed today for the Presidents Day.
17/02/2012
Here are weekly charts from 2007 - 2012 from the top down SP500, DOW, FTSE, DAX and SWED. Click on the pictures to get bigger. SP500 and DOW looks nearly identical. DOW has now broken earlier top and an new fifth wave is under way. The European indexes look he same too but see how far they have to go to reach the 2007 tops.
DOW is in an expanding triangle.
16/02/2012
DOW made a new high on daily close at 12.901.1. US market firm on upside since news about jobless claims and GM result. However there was no intraday test of Wednesday's high. During Friday a test of the high 12.950 may happen. The strong 200 points rally will take several hours to top out and I do not expect any tests on downside until CET 13:00 Friday.
The DOW now
This chart shows a power full sell signal. DOW:s resistance point on upside is a close above 12.780 before CET 10:00.
The one day resistance point is 12.800 and the falling 8 days MA is at 12.840. The likely hood for a change of the long daily uptrend is currently at 50 percent.
DOW got a new 9 days low one hour after Europe opens. This low is below the rising 21 day MA, This has not happened since Dec 20. Yesterdays key reversal down and the falling 8 day MA can lead to a change down in the daily trend. However US traders use to lift the DOW so now it is just a waiting period how this will play out. SP500, DAX and FTSE looks the same. DOW still leads the indexes.
15/02/2012
All indexes strongly up with rising 2 hour trends
DOW new high at 12.950. SP500 new high at 1.359.84. DAX, FTSE and SWED also new highs. Euro moving sideways.
Portugal’s Debt Efforts May Be Warning for Greece
I recommend this story which shows all countries in risk and debt/GDP ratios
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/business/global/portugals-debt-efforts-may-be-a-warning-for-greece.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/business/global/portugals-debt-efforts-may-be-a-warning-for-greece.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
14/02/2012
13/02/2012
DOW's chart below shows the big picture
EURO and DOW jump on opening in Asia on Greece Parliament votes.
DOW is currently at 12.850 which is between two gaps, 12,801 and 12.882. Asia has only been open for 40 minutes and it is too early to tell which gap Dow will cover first.
The Euros rally is back to Friday close again.
The Euros rally is back to Friday close again.
12/02/2012
11/02/2012
Outlook week Feb 13 for the Dow which now is leading the world indexes.
DOW fell to a low of 12.741 Friday and rallied the last 15 minutes to close at 12.800. This close came in below the rising 8 day MA which is a warning sign that a new top will be difficult. Since the trend for the 2 hour chart is down and strong, there is a possibility that Monday can keep the trend down which makes the daily trend closer to a change on downside. However the daily main trend is still in tact now, well within its channel borders and a sudden drop is unlikely to get below 12.700 now. The gap at 12.882 must be covered. This long uptrend need a topping out process that could take several days. A drop down to 12.700 could be stopped by the rising 21 day MA.
I still do not believe in a close above 13.000 and we have probably seen this up trends top at 12.929.5. Bad news about Greece seems to be priced in. There are a few things that can make the DOW weaker and that is the bond markets where the German and US 10 year notes seems to have reached its highs and a downtrend could start quite soon. The Euro has nearly finished its uptrend and could also start falling soon.
The week will give a new piece to the puzzle.
I still do not believe in a close above 13.000 and we have probably seen this up trends top at 12.929.5. Bad news about Greece seems to be priced in. There are a few things that can make the DOW weaker and that is the bond markets where the German and US 10 year notes seems to have reached its highs and a downtrend could start quite soon. The Euro has nearly finished its uptrend and could also start falling soon.
The week will give a new piece to the puzzle.
The Great Depression and Today's Europe
What the American Presidents did in the 1930's is what is being tried today in Europe. The austerity programs did not work at all. Only a world war helped the U.S. economy then. Are we doing the same mistake again ?
Read my blog http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/ and find out for your self.
Read my blog http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/ and find out for your self.
10/02/2012
The DOW now
The DOW is on its fifth sideways day with a top of 12.929 which is not enough to qualify for an attack on the 2007 top. Right now it looks like this was the final top.
The rising 8 days MA at 12.825.1 is currently holding. The 2 hour trend is down, now at 12.831.2 with main resistance at 12.839.2. Thursday's close was the highest at 12.889.7.
Taken together this situation 120 minutes after Europe opened, points to a test of resistance at 12.839.2 which is crucial for the DOW to get above on the 2 hour chart. If that fails the downtrend will continue which could be the beginning of a trend change down. How this situation is played out might have big importance for the next week.
The rising 8 days MA at 12.825.1 is currently holding. The 2 hour trend is down, now at 12.831.2 with main resistance at 12.839.2. Thursday's close was the highest at 12.889.7.
Taken together this situation 120 minutes after Europe opened, points to a test of resistance at 12.839.2 which is crucial for the DOW to get above on the 2 hour chart. If that fails the downtrend will continue which could be the beginning of a trend change down. How this situation is played out might have big importance for the next week.
09/02/2012
EURO and Main stock indexes are still in strong daily uptrends and manage to move a few points higher day by day.
DOW got a new intraday high on Wednesday at 12.907 only 16 points from 2011 high at 12.923. Today at CET 06.30 a new upside test trial have started to test the current top again. The EURO and SP500 are also on their way to test Wednesdays tops.
Investors seems to just wait, not trade. Only a few stocks have been lifted the last few days, for instance Apple. To me this cannot go on and on so I am still looking for any weakness in these slow up trends. Greece is still he main problem and a reaction must come soon by the markets. From the big perspective I see no fundamental reason for the Dow to take out the 12.923 top because the fundamentals are not there to support a new high. The world economy is not better now compared to May last year when the top was set. The outlook for 2012 is not better either. I still think the Dow will make a double top and then fall back to 2011 lows. The problem is when this will start. Every time the 2 hour trends turn down I advice caution. There are lots of other indicators, for instance German Schatz bonds that in my view cannot go higher which means that bond yields can turn upward quite soon.
Investors seems to just wait, not trade. Only a few stocks have been lifted the last few days, for instance Apple. To me this cannot go on and on so I am still looking for any weakness in these slow up trends. Greece is still he main problem and a reaction must come soon by the markets. From the big perspective I see no fundamental reason for the Dow to take out the 12.923 top because the fundamentals are not there to support a new high. The world economy is not better now compared to May last year when the top was set. The outlook for 2012 is not better either. I still think the Dow will make a double top and then fall back to 2011 lows. The problem is when this will start. Every time the 2 hour trends turn down I advice caution. There are lots of other indicators, for instance German Schatz bonds that in my view cannot go higher which means that bond yields can turn upward quite soon.
07/02/2012
EURO and all main indexes take new highs on close in New York
DOW takes a new intraday high at 12.901. The 2011 year high is 12.923. All trends are up for the DOW.
SP500 new high at 1.348.79 and all European indexes trends are also up.
We have now had three days sideways with small gains. The weekly and daily trends are very steady on upside only the hourly trends may change during the day.
EURO has broken out of 9 days sideways trend on upside and taken very strong resistance point at 1.3236.7 to close at 1.3259.2. This bullish move might indicate that coming news from Greece will be accepted by the markets.
SP500 new high at 1.348.79 and all European indexes trends are also up.
We have now had three days sideways with small gains. The weekly and daily trends are very steady on upside only the hourly trends may change during the day.
EURO has broken out of 9 days sideways trend on upside and taken very strong resistance point at 1.3236.7 to close at 1.3259.2. This bullish move might indicate that coming news from Greece will be accepted by the markets.
Europe opens in 10 minutes. DOW and SP500 holding 2 hour uptrend and the trends are within the up channels. All gaps are closed. The only thing that can stop the up trends from taking new highs would be bad news about Greece today. EURO nine days sideways trend continuous and it seems like Greece god or bad news can break this trend up or down today.
05/02/2012
DOW might take a new 4 year high week 6 Feb.
DOW closed Friday at 12.861.1 just shy of 2011 intraday high at 12.923. Monday Feb 6 will show if the current uptrend is still in place for a new 4 year high. I think DOW might be able to take 13.000 but not to hold it long.
Greece will come in focus again as you can read in the article below.
SP500 closed 1.344.47, a new 7month closing high and I believe it will follow every move of the DOW now.
Europe main indexes which started the bull run Friday closed at new highs. DAX has now risen 37 % since last September.
The good employment news in the U.S. might go away week Feb 6 and the worse case scenario is that Greece cannot make it.
Greece will come in focus again as you can read in the article below.
SP500 closed 1.344.47, a new 7month closing high and I believe it will follow every move of the DOW now.
Europe main indexes which started the bull run Friday closed at new highs. DAX has now risen 37 % since last September.
The good employment news in the U.S. might go away week Feb 6 and the worse case scenario is that Greece cannot make it.
03/02/2012
02/02/2012
EURO uptrend topping out and downtrend will soon continue
The EURO will probably show the way for all indexes. The very strong resistance point is at 1.3237 and the last four days the EURO has tried to reach that point but failed. The daily trend looks like it has given up more trials at present and the weekly chart tells me we are o the verge to trend change.
All in all I believe right now that the beginning of a down trend could start any day for the stock market indexes and the Euro. Of course daily up beat news always can interfere with the technical daily picture but the daily and weekly trends cannot be changed by any news.
All in all I believe right now that the beginning of a down trend could start any day for the stock market indexes and the Euro. Of course daily up beat news always can interfere with the technical daily picture but the daily and weekly trends cannot be changed by any news.
Main indexes losing daily uptrend momentum. Difficulties to take out critical resistance points.
The weekly strong resistance points have held for 9 days so far while DOW has moved sideways trying to pop up now and then to make a daily close above 12.810. Time is slowly running out and the daily trends are now sideways.
SP500 is in the same situation with the important 1.331 resistance point. DAX has today tried its resistance point at 6.639 but not managed to hold up. FTSE must take 5.804 soon and SWED must get a weekly close above 1.054 for the uptrend to continue.
SP500 is in the same situation with the important 1.331 resistance point. DAX has today tried its resistance point at 6.639 but not managed to hold up. FTSE must take 5.804 soon and SWED must get a weekly close above 1.054 for the uptrend to continue.
01/02/2012
DAX rallies strongly on upside after Chinese news on manufacturing and is the strongest index close to new highs. US indexes are up a little but move sideways in the daily channels which are slightly up. Euro got a lift from China as well. All indexes are testing the daily trends highs but a break out on upside does not seem likely
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