30/11/2011
29/11/2011
All indexes have gaps at the bottom to cover. Quick turnaround down could happen
In the current uptrend only DAX and CAC have closed their gaps. All the other indexes have to go higher. DOW to at least 11.791.3, SP 1.214.72, FTSE 5.346.52, SWED 940.07, MIB 15.230.9 and IBEX 8.303.
The 2 hr up trends are in tact and a a gap cover could happen today or within the next few days. Some indexes may not be able to close their gaps before the markets tops out and the trend changes to down. Lots of news today in Europe and the U.S. so a sudden rally or drop is in the cards.
More important is the gaps that all indexes got at the bottom when the uptrend started. That means that when the top of this uptrend is in, there could be quick falls down to these gaps. Here they are: DOW 11.240.6, SP500 1.159.40, DAX 5.456, FTSE 5.183.25, SWED 891.4, MIB 13.961, IBEX 7.761 and CAC 2.866.
I will follow trading in SP500 from now until US close and Asia opening and post messages as soon as I see something of importance.
The 2 hr up trends are in tact and a a gap cover could happen today or within the next few days. Some indexes may not be able to close their gaps before the markets tops out and the trend changes to down. Lots of news today in Europe and the U.S. so a sudden rally or drop is in the cards.
More important is the gaps that all indexes got at the bottom when the uptrend started. That means that when the top of this uptrend is in, there could be quick falls down to these gaps. Here they are: DOW 11.240.6, SP500 1.159.40, DAX 5.456, FTSE 5.183.25, SWED 891.4, MIB 13.961, IBEX 7.761 and CAC 2.866.
I will follow trading in SP500 from now until US close and Asia opening and post messages as soon as I see something of importance.
Pressure mounts on Europe as finance ministers meet
This meeting outcome could influence the Euro and the Stock markets.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111129?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111129?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
The two day uptrend finally has run into strong selling pressure
SP500 did early this morning test the crucial old resistance point 1.200.00 but were stopped just below at 1.199.64. The 2 hr chart uptrend is still in place and more tests could come during the day but the uptrend has lost its steam and and a down turn could also start. Now at 1.190. 34. It feels like the top has been seen.
A break above 1.200 would make the gap at 1.214.72 the target.
The Euro has topped at 1.3398 by the 8 day MA and is currently trading sideways. The very important resistance point at 1.3384 must hold Wednesday close to keep the long downtrend in place. Now trading 1.3329. The 2 hr uptrend is still in place but right now the trend is sideways. I feel the Euro will close the month below 1.3384.
A break above 1.200 would make the gap at 1.214.72 the target.
The Euro has topped at 1.3398 by the 8 day MA and is currently trading sideways. The very important resistance point at 1.3384 must hold Wednesday close to keep the long downtrend in place. Now trading 1.3329. The 2 hr uptrend is still in place but right now the trend is sideways. I feel the Euro will close the month below 1.3384.
28/11/2011
Germany, France press coercive euro zone debt rules
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/28/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111128?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
Interesting story from Reuters regarding the political situation and different solution to the debt crisis. It is said that speculators want the Euro down which supports my view that the Bundesbank is watching and prepared to fight the speculators. I worked with the same situation in 1984.
Interesting story from Reuters regarding the political situation and different solution to the debt crisis. It is said that speculators want the Euro down which supports my view that the Bundesbank is watching and prepared to fight the speculators. I worked with the same situation in 1984.
Why the markets are up today
Last Friday there was a short covering rally in the Euro from the weeks low at 1.3211 up to 1.3296 within two hours before it fell back to close the week a 1.3236. Sunday the Euro opened at CET 18:00 - 7 hours before the SP500 - with a new and more powerful rally up to 1.3341. Accordingly the SP500 opened with big gap at 1.172.65 from Friday close at 1.154.40. The Euro and SP500 then went sideways until Europe opened with heavy short covering pushing the Euro and SP500 to new highs 1.3398 and SP500 1.189.99.
Since then until now the trend has been sideways again possible waiting for the US to open.
SP500 has now closed its first gap at 1.186.69. The second gap is at 1.214.72.
Of course there is a planed intervention behind all of this. It could be be the ECB wanting the euro to stop falling or someone big player who saw this as a perfect way to change the stock markets to an upside trend.
ECB has the German Bundesbank which is a specialist on currency intervention since the 1970:s.
Since then until now the trend has been sideways again possible waiting for the US to open.
SP500 has now closed its first gap at 1.186.69. The second gap is at 1.214.72.
Of course there is a planed intervention behind all of this. It could be be the ECB wanting the euro to stop falling or someone big player who saw this as a perfect way to change the stock markets to an upside trend.
ECB has the German Bundesbank which is a specialist on currency intervention since the 1970:s.
26/11/2011
Where are the stock markets going now. Part 1 The EURO
Since the main fundamental question is the Euro crisis I believe myself that where the Euro goes the stock markets will go.
PART 2, The Stock indices.
The indexes looks more or less like the Euro daily chart above. The Spanish IBEX looks the worst with the 8 week MA down before crossing the 21 week falling MA.
This is what it looks like. More or less as the Euro week chart but here the MA is turning down just before it hits the 21 MA. This use to be a very bearish sign. There is no chance what so ever to get above this falling 8 MA for the next 8 weeks if the down fall should stop here. It also use to be a very power full "push further down" sign.
The Italian MIB and the French CAC will get their 8 MA down when the new week have started and they have a bit more to fall than IBEX. DAX, FTSE, SWED and the EURO can theoretically still avoid this situation another week or two. DOW and SP500 still have their MA's on upside but they could turn sideways soon or down if a big drop happens.
Next Wednesday the falling 8 month MA:s will cross the 21 month MA and become definite bear markets for DAX and FTSE. DOW, SP500 and the EURO will still only be bear markets, which theoretically can be reversed, but have their falling 8 MA:s down steeper after this last day of November.
25/11/2011
SP500 maid a short rally for two hours and then fell back to where it started closing at a new low 11.154.39. First quick view on next week forecast tells me it does not look very good.
A complete analysis for the coming days will be published before trading starts in Asia next Sunday.
Have a nice weekend
Have a nice weekend
24/11/2011
SP500 has moved sideways slightly up since opening in Asia and first hour in Europe. This means that a bottom formation is being created which later today could set off a rally on upside. All European indexes are doing the same but IBEX which has taken a new low. Usually Thanksgiving Day is a calm day but the futures market is open as usual. So far it is just wait and see.
23/11/2011
Merkel backs ECB, warns on Greek aid tranche
The story below showed how dependent Euro banks are on ECB. Here are clear words from Merkel to German parliament, ECB's mandate is not to give out loans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AM0L420111123
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AM0L420111123
Europe’s Banks Relying on Money From E.C.B.
This story gives a good overview of the Euro areas bank's big problems.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/banks-seek-emergency-funds-from-ecb.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/banks-seek-emergency-funds-from-ecb.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
22/11/2011
Illustration of current situation, SP500
SP500, very strong selling pressure at 1.200 holds trend below this crucial resistance point. Buyers trying to cover gap have not got enough buying strength now
What is going on is a fight between two groups. The strongest group so far sells heavily at very important chart point at 1.199.37 - 1.201.12. This point is looked at all over the world because many thinks if this points goes the bear market is not in place anymore. The other group thinks that the gap at 1.210.46 must be covered for the down trend to continue. The 2 hr chart 8 MA is up, currently 193.98 and will rise for several hours unless the buyers give up. However as the time goes by both teams will be stronger and stronger. Who will win is difficult to say. I will continue to monitor this fight.
Right now a new attack at the upside
Right now a new attack at the upside
21/11/2011
Daily technical downtrend established for all indexes. But remember the gaps.
SP500 closed Monday at 1.192.46. A close below 1.200 is another strong indication that the market will fall further. It is very important to note that a gap always will be covered. Usually this happens when a bottom has been created on the 2 hr chart and the falling 8 days MA will not be confronted. This 8 day MA gets lower by the day but for Tuesday and Wednesday it has not come down to the gap point. The gap point that a rally must reach for SP500 is at 1.210.46. All indexes have gap points so do not get surprised if a rally comes up to this level which is very near last Friday's close. The gaps were created because the Asian opening was below Fridays lowest point.
The big drop came early Monday, between CET 08:00 - 16:00. Trading after that until close at 22:00 was used by the market to move sideways and by that behavior creating the beginning of a bottom which when ready could be a starting point for a rally. Remember also that many players have short positions all the way up to Friday close. These short positions have electronic stop points for the short positions to be bought. In a rally, which usually is handled by the big boys everything goes very quickly and most of the time it is unexpected.
There are also many traders prepared to take new short positions when the rally runs out of steam. The time during this Thanksgiving week is perfect for such a rally because of small turnover.
I do not know when this rally will occur it could be Tuesday, Wednesday or some day in late December. It can also come any of the 21 hours SP500 is traded and you must be lucky to sit at your screen if you want to short the top.
The big drop came early Monday, between CET 08:00 - 16:00. Trading after that until close at 22:00 was used by the market to move sideways and by that behavior creating the beginning of a bottom which when ready could be a starting point for a rally. Remember also that many players have short positions all the way up to Friday close. These short positions have electronic stop points for the short positions to be bought. In a rally, which usually is handled by the big boys everything goes very quickly and most of the time it is unexpected.
There are also many traders prepared to take new short positions when the rally runs out of steam. The time during this Thanksgiving week is perfect for such a rally because of small turnover.
I do not know when this rally will occur it could be Tuesday, Wednesday or some day in late December. It can also come any of the 21 hours SP500 is traded and you must be lucky to sit at your screen if you want to short the top.
Analysis: Deficit deadlock may send chill through markets. US stocks could fall on failed action to lower deficit by 1.2 trillion. Failure now looks likely before deadline Wednesday.
News from Reuters just in regarding US reaction.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-usa-debt-supercommittee-a-idUSTRE7AJ0VZ20111120?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-usa-debt-supercommittee-a-idUSTRE7AJ0VZ20111120?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
20/11/2011
Outlook for the stock indexes during week Nov 21.
SP500 and all European stock indexes could technically start to fall down to 2011 lows any day this week. The only index which still is holding a
sideways trend with a possibility of a sustained upward trend is the DOW.
The hesitation to break down last Thursday and Friday was because of very
low activities which especially have been the case on Wall Street. Everyone
seems to wait for a sudden positive signal regarding the European debt. There
are lots of rumours about a sudden solution that ECB will get green light from
Germany to become the lender of last resort.
To make a forecast even more difficult is the fact that the
U.S. has their biggest holiday, Thanksgiving on Thursday 24. Many market
participants will leave Wednesday which practically means that Wall Street will
function normally less than three full days this coming week. Europe usually does not want to trade when
the US traders are off. However I expect the big players to sit at their
computers and with low volume send the indexes up and down without a real
trend.
My personal job right now, since we technically is at the
very edge of the drop with SP500 and FTSE, is to follow these two indexes in detail at
least the first three days of the week and Friday and report on this blog what
I see.
Remember that the big technical picture will get worse by
the day on the daily charts so any happy rumour from Europe with a powerful
rally will most likely be just that, a rally that will come back down again
quickly or after a few days.
19/11/2011
18/11/2011
Friday stock indices have moved above yesterdays low but very little. Now SP500 and FTSE is both very close to take out yesterdays bottom. If this occur a substantial drop can occur
However DOW is still holding above 8 weekly MA so a double bottom could well occur Friday in New York including FTSE and SP500.
Before US trading next Monday I will have an outlook report ready.
Have a nice weekend
Before US trading next Monday I will have an outlook report ready.
Have a nice weekend
European problems get worse, no clear solution while debt yield increases
Here is a good article from Reuters about all the problems Europe are trying to solve and how Germany so far stops lending from ECB and much more.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AC15K20111118?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AC15K20111118?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
17/11/2011
US and European trends down approaching very important resistance levels.
The technical picture has deteriorated significantly since Wednesday. DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED are moving in tandem down to test important resistance points which if broken can cause big drops.
The daily trends are now definitely down and several support points have been broken since Europe opened.
Today and tomorrow Friday could be the beginning of the next big move down.
The daily trends are now definitely down and several support points have been broken since Europe opened.
Today and tomorrow Friday could be the beginning of the next big move down.
16/11/2011
IMPORTANT information about the markets next move.
All the stock indexes have now been trying to get higher for three weeks and three days. The last hour Wednesday in New York the Dow fell 184 points to close at 11.903. SP500 fell 19 points the last hour to close at 1.236.96. The only technical obstacle to a sharper drop is the rising 8 week MA. This MA will continue to rise a few more weeks and could technically hold DOW and SP500 up with continued possibilities to take new highs. However SP500 looks more and more unlikely to go higher and a new technical factor has come in to play that could stop SP to take new high. To cover all eventualities, even an unlikely break of the 8 week MA I already now want you to be aware that these two indexes can start falling from now on.
The euro has taken a new low Wednesday getting below strong resistance points which adds to my cautiousness and ECB has been forced to buy Italian and Spanish bonds since the market wants higher and higher yield by the day. A sharp drop can occur any time now and a falling Euro could scare the stock markets.
Summary: The situation in the markets is difficult to read during this period of quick turnaround in trends and new information dropping in about Europe's debt crises which still affect the markets on both side of the pond sharply. No exact time could be set now for the drop I expect.
The euro has taken a new low Wednesday getting below strong resistance points which adds to my cautiousness and ECB has been forced to buy Italian and Spanish bonds since the market wants higher and higher yield by the day. A sharp drop can occur any time now and a falling Euro could scare the stock markets.
Summary: The situation in the markets is difficult to read during this period of quick turnaround in trends and new information dropping in about Europe's debt crises which still affect the markets on both side of the pond sharply. No exact time could be set now for the drop I expect.
Dow closed Tuesday at 12.091.7 after a sharp selloff the last hour. Asia started with a drop gap taken DOW to a low of 11.936. When Europe opened Dow rallied on upside to close the gap and now the index is trading around Tuesdays closing level.
However the 2 hour trend is still down and this gap covering rally will soon come back down below the falling 21 and 8 MA at he 2hr chart at 12.042.
15/11/2011
Monthly charts now of DOW, SP500, DAX, FTSE, SWED, MIB, IBEX and CAC with comments
DOW is moving up and down the falling 8 MA and can change the bear trend.
SP500 is trading between the MA:s and have difficulties to get above the 8 MA
DAX, first chart below,will most likely become a definite bear market Dec 1. The same will happen to FTSE, second chart. SWED, third chart, is in a definite bear market and so are MIB, IBEX and CAC.
DOW closed Monday at 12.077, Asia traded sideways. Europe trend down.
DOW and SP500 have done a three wave correction on downside since last Friday close. If it stays that way an upside rally with start during the day. However there is a strong fight going on between sellers and buyers right now to push the DOW below an hourly close of 12.027 which will send the index into a fifth wave on downside signalling that a new test of the highs is not imminent. CET 11:00 the hourly close came just above 12.027 and the market forces on one hand are still working to hold this point to be able to start a new uptrend and on the other side those who want a break on downside. We just have to wait and see how this will be played out.
14/11/2011
The Euro is back to a very critical point.
EURUSD neckline in a big head and shoulder formation on the 2 hr chart is at 1.3653.8. This neckline was broken Nov 9 but a retest of the neckline Nov 11 was positive and the euro rallied to a top at 1.3807.7. Today the euro is falling again and last 2 hr close was just 6 points above the neckline. It is very important to keep an eye on the euro because it tells a lot where the stock markets are heading.
The first neckline break 2 hr closing low was at 1.3495.8. A close below this point could trigger a dramatic drop in the euro.
The first neckline break 2 hr closing low was at 1.3495.8. A close below this point could trigger a dramatic drop in the euro.
13/11/2011
Road to U.S. recovery goes through Rome Debt crisis in Italy. Secondly here is a few words about the very big picture
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/road-to-us-recovery-goes-through-rome-2011-11-13?siteid=rss&rss=1
This article is not only about Europe but how the American economy performs. If the European debt crisis was not looming the company results, inflation and increasing consumer spending would put US in a good economic situation, according to the article. I doubt that. I think the national and especially the private debt in the US and Britain sooner rather than later will punish those which prints money to cover its debt. Europe except England do not print money so far because of Germany's definitive no to even that thought. For hundreds of years governments have printed money to make ends meet and as far as I know no country have avoided severe economic aftermath in that way. Of course US can go on this way, maybe for many years, but one day the economy will collapse. If Europe collapses because they refuse to print money that does not mean America and England are safe by doing so.
In May we had all the indexes at the top. I have calculated how much each index has lost in value from that top until last Fridays's close.
Index Percentage loss
DOW 6
SP500 8
FTSE 9
SWED 17
DAX 20
IBEX 22
CAC 24
MIB 30
The monthly charts of course look different. The US and English indexes fall steep but also recover very strongly every month. The European indexes fall steeply but does not recover that much. Why this is could be the more advanced computer trading systems and the much frequently used short positions in the US especially. I also think that manipulation is easier to do with the DOW index which SP500 always mainly follow.
Only DOW and SP500 have the chance to reverse the bear market. All other indexes cannot technically do that. SP500 has a less chance than the DOW. That is one of reasons I have followed DOW in this blog.
Only DOW and SP500 have the chance to reverse the bear market. All other indexes cannot technically do that. SP500 has a less chance than the DOW. That is one of reasons I have followed DOW in this blog.
DOW Friday close 12.153.1. What is next?
The question is if all the news are priced in or not. Will the market take out the final high at 12.284 in the uptrend that started Oct 4 and how high will it go after that. Or will the Dow just stop where it is now.
These three countries are in a new situation with the people behind them so far. How will it play out? Can they make it ? I think the markets will give them at least a month to try. The technical picture still points to mid December or the beginning of January for turning down, unless we take new highs from here.
Regime Change in Europe: Do Greece and Italy Amount to a Bankers' Coup?
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2099350,00.html?xid=rss-
topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+International
Yesterday I had an article from Reuters about Spain. Here is the story about Greece and Italy from The Times.
topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+International
Yesterday I had an article from Reuters about Spain. Here is the story about Greece and Italy from The Times.
12/11/2011
Analysis: Spain Recession More Likely on New Austerity By REUTERS
Spain have elections Nov 20. PP is expected to be the new majority party. What will they do.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/11/10/business/business-us-spain-election-economy.html?pagewanted=1
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/11/10/business/business-us-spain-election-economy.html?pagewanted=1
11/11/2011
Greece and Italy Seek a Solution From Technocrats
Here is a very good article about Greece and Italy just now and what might happen. Less pessimistic than earlier reports.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/world/europe/greece-and-italy-ask-technocrats-to-find-solution.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/world/europe/greece-and-italy-ask-technocrats-to-find-solution.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
DOW 2hr chart zoomed in
DOW moves in a triangle since Oct 27. See picture beneath. 2 hour chart.
It seems right now as if the 8 MA will not be able to cross the 34 falling MA so I think that the trend might break on downside during the day.
10/11/2011
DOW closed Thursday 11.823. Big picture now
Dow weekly bars. This week - the last bar is holding within last weeks bar. The rising 8 MA will rise steeper up for three to five weeks. I do not expect Dow to stay below this MA. That means continued sideways trend or upwards. The 34 MA will start next Monday to go steeper down. All I want to know is if the 8 MA will cross 34 MA or not.
DOW outlook Thursday
This is a 4 hour chart from uptrend started at 10.400 Oct 4 until the top at 12.249 Oct 27. Then the drop down to the horizontal line at 11.663 where a double bottom was created. Then an upward trend in three waves to Tuesdays high of 12.184 followed by a break down to Wednesday's close at 11.782. I expect a test Thursday of the horizontal line. A break below 11.626 can send DOW to 11.000 area.(Chart Saxobank)
09/11/2011
Nouriel Roubini sees double-dip recession: report
Big picture. Recommended reading now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nouriel-roubini-sees-double-dip-recession-report-2011-11-08
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nouriel-roubini-sees-double-dip-recession-report-2011-11-08
08/11/2011
07/11/2011
The DOW charts from Big Charts, the two yellow charts that you just have seen is the cash market that opened CET 15:30. What I refer to is the future market which opens already at CET 02:00 and especially the short term charts look very much different. I will publish the future charts as well now and then. They have a white back ground.This was just to give you an idea what it looks like. The future market is the most important market.
Here is the hourly chart where you can see that the uptrend is strong.
See how the yellow 8 hr MA has turned up before crossing the blue 21 hr MA. That means a strong trend and the resistance points might be attacked several more times.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F7%2F2011&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=8%2C21%2C34&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=1&style=320&size=4&x=54&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F7%2F2011&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=8%2C21%2C34&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=1&style=320&size=4&x=54&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Italy government borrowing rates hit euro-era high
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15617132
Read the whole article from BBC, especially" Beginning of the end"
Read the whole article from BBC, especially" Beginning of the end"
Euro zone set for 2012 recession: SocGen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -– French bank Societe Generale said Monday it expects the euro-zone economies to fall into recession next year, adding that growth is also likely to be on the weaker side for the U.S. and China.
Europe leaves summit empty-handed
A grand plan to save the euro zone fell apart after a tumultuous G20 summit at the site of the Riviera's famous film festival. WSJ's Charles Forelle reports from Cannes.
The bank said financial stress conditions, elevated from the failure to resolve the euro-zone crisis, will elevate credit costs, erode confidence and result in negative wealth effects.
It warned that businesses are holding off hiring and investment plans as the crisis has moved from the financial sphere to undermine confidence in the real economy.
“The spillover from the euro-debt crisis has proven greater than previously expected and we now see recession as inevitable,”
06/11/2011
The Big Picture now. Part 4.
Finally I want to show SP500 in a six month weekly bar chart. See the blue 8 MA rising up against the falling brown 34 MA. The only important question is will the blue turn down before or just after it reaches the brown. This is the biggest question in 2011.
Click for the Big Charts here:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=sp500&x=25&y=9&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F6%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=34%2C8&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=1&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Click for the Big Charts here:
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05/11/2011
The Big Picture now. Part 2.
SP500 weekly 2007 - 2011, Saxo Bank
The dark curve is the 34 week MA. The blue curve is the 8 week MA. The first of the five waves down - which have five mini waves - starts when the 8 MA turns down at the left of the picture. Then it crosses the 34 week MA on downside and a very short time later the 34 MA starts to move down as well. The bear market has started. After the five mini waves have run its course a correction on upside starts. This move on upside have 7 mini waves. But look at the two MA:s. The 34 is falling despite the correction but the 8 is moving up but it turns down just before it reaches the 34. At that very moment the the big fall starts that cuts the SP500 50 percent in 10 months.
After the five waves down has ran its course the three waves on upside starts which peaks in mid 2011. Now look at the 8 MA how it turns down and crosses the 34 MA which also turns down. Then a bottom is created, the 8 MA runs up and is now on its way to eventually cross the 34 MA that is still falling despite a weekly close above. Look again at the correction in May 2008. The same cenario in my opinion.
The Big Picture now. Part 1.
Standard & Poor's 500 index (SP500) weekly chart during 10 years until today from Big Charts.
This chart includes the 500 biggest companies in the US and is a more exact picture of the US economy than the Dow which only has 30 companies. This chart moves nearly the same way as the Dow but there are important differences. The quality of the picture is not good but it shows the main curve and a 34 week MA in an orange color. Look at the top of the curve which is 2007. See how the MA turns down after having moved up for four years. Follow the trend down to its bottom which is March 2009. See how the MA turns up again and how it seems to turn down for good in August 2011. This weekly 34 MA is the same as a 8 months MA but more exact. My definition of a bear market is that the 8 months MA or the 34 weeks MA has turned down. The last two weeks the index has tried to change the downtrend of the MA but so far unsuccessfully. The index might continue to do so within the next few weeks but time is slowly running out. Now you understand why I have written so much about the Dow's exact numbers where this can occur. This 10 year curve of SP500 also shows a few basic facts. From the 2007 top there are five waves to the bottom. 2007 was in my view the final top of a bull market that started 1982. According to R.N. Elliott and Natures law, a top is final if it is followed by a five wave downward correction. The uptrend since March 2009 has only three waves which is exactly what it should have according to Elliott. If the MA continues down the third wave down from 2007 is a fact and Natures law through Elliott says that it will be a five wave movement down, like the 2007 - 2009 curve, which will take the index to catastrophic levels.
This chart includes the 500 biggest companies in the US and is a more exact picture of the US economy than the Dow which only has 30 companies. This chart moves nearly the same way as the Dow but there are important differences. The quality of the picture is not good but it shows the main curve and a 34 week MA in an orange color. Look at the top of the curve which is 2007. See how the MA turns down after having moved up for four years. Follow the trend down to its bottom which is March 2009. See how the MA turns up again and how it seems to turn down for good in August 2011. This weekly 34 MA is the same as a 8 months MA but more exact. My definition of a bear market is that the 8 months MA or the 34 weeks MA has turned down. The last two weeks the index has tried to change the downtrend of the MA but so far unsuccessfully. The index might continue to do so within the next few weeks but time is slowly running out. Now you understand why I have written so much about the Dow's exact numbers where this can occur. This 10 year curve of SP500 also shows a few basic facts. From the 2007 top there are five waves to the bottom. 2007 was in my view the final top of a bull market that started 1982. According to R.N. Elliott and Natures law, a top is final if it is followed by a five wave downward correction. The uptrend since March 2009 has only three waves which is exactly what it should have according to Elliott. If the MA continues down the third wave down from 2007 is a fact and Natures law through Elliott says that it will be a five wave movement down, like the 2007 - 2009 curve, which will take the index to catastrophic levels.
04/11/2011
DOW down trend stronger
There is on the 1 hr chart a triple top. On the 15 min chart there are five waves on downside telling me that the likelihood of a down trend is big. But there is always the risk for intervention or manipulation that some time could take a while to identify.
DOW test upside now.
After having hit the 8 day MA DOW is moving on upside to find out were the sellers are. Resistance (R) at 12.003 stopped the uptrend on 5 min chart so far.
DOW 2hr trend is now down.
The 2 hr 8 MA has turned down and the DOW has taken a new low at 11.971.1 touching the rising 8 day MA at 11.791.6. Now trading 11.785.
DOW trades within 69 points today after 9 hours
The DOW players seems to have taken the day off so far. The index is moving between 11.993 - 12.062.
The 8 day MA is up at 11.979 and today's Hi so far is the same as yesterday's high. Now trading in the middle of the range at 12.030.
The calm after yesterdays intervention.
All the European indexes look the same and the news from the G20 meeting does not affect the markets so far.
The 8 day MA is up at 11.979 and today's Hi so far is the same as yesterday's high. Now trading in the middle of the range at 12.030.
The calm after yesterdays intervention.
All the European indexes look the same and the news from the G20 meeting does not affect the markets so far.
Q&A: what Greece faces on the rocky road ahead
Here is the latest interesting article about what can happen to Greece from The Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8868300/QandA-what-Greece-faces-on-the-rocky-road-ahead.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8868300/QandA-what-Greece-faces-on-the-rocky-road-ahead.html
DOW closed Thursday at 12.038.
By today's jump in the daily trend by 417 points all trends are up again except for the monthly trend where the downward 8 month MA is at 12.053. Today's high was 12.064. From a technical point of view my target is around 12.127 - 12.140 depending of how you count.
To change the 8 months MA to the upside 12.323 must be reached and to keep it up DOW must close above 12.811 November 30.
I stand by my believe that November will be a month with powerful drops and up trends and my guess is still that the 8 month MA will not be moved on upside which means the bear market will not become a bull market. But remember this is just a guess based on my overall feelings of the technical trends and the fundamental facts.
To change the 8 months MA to the upside 12.323 must be reached and to keep it up DOW must close above 12.811 November 30.
I stand by my believe that November will be a month with powerful drops and up trends and my guess is still that the 8 month MA will not be moved on upside which means the bear market will not become a bull market. But remember this is just a guess based on my overall feelings of the technical trends and the fundamental facts.
03/11/2011
The intervention with short covering seems to have ended now.
A good example how an intervention with short covering looks like today's DAX 2 hr bar chart since CET 07:00 is perfect. There are three bars that just explodes on upside during a manipulation.
You will find them in many charts during the years.
If it had been a normal trend on fundamentals it would look like EURUSD during the same period of time.
You will find them in many charts during the years.
If it had been a normal trend on fundamentals it would look like EURUSD during the same period of time.
All indexes are taken new daily highs.
DOW is close to my target and the uptrend is very strong. DAX and FTSE have closed their daily gaps from November 1. SWED, MIB,CAC and IBEX have not closed their gaps yet.
New reason in a paper why the Dow rises.
NEW YORK—U.S. stock futures erased earlier sharp losses to trade higher, tracking the rebound in Europe markets, as the increased likelihood that Greece will no longer seek a referendum buoyed investor sentiment.
The text above was just published by WSJ. In my view it was the Dow which started the rally 30 minutes before Europe opened and the European stock markets followed the Dow as they always do during the circumstances that made the trend this morning.
The text above was just published by WSJ. In my view it was the Dow which started the rally 30 minutes before Europe opened and the European stock markets followed the Dow as they always do during the circumstances that made the trend this morning.
What Wall Street Journal thinks is the reason for the rally.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203804204577015432626476856.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW
This is a typical example that the journalists have no idea what is really happening so they take the latest news from Greece and make it bullish. We the readers are mislead because the journalist do not think you can manipulate a trend and so does everyone else, but me.
This is a typical example that the journalists have no idea what is really happening so they take the latest news from Greece and make it bullish. We the readers are mislead because the journalist do not think you can manipulate a trend and so does everyone else, but me.
Manipulation occurs now in Asia and Europe so they will get the blame.
Usually since many years, the manipulations I remember have taken place when the US has been open. Now they start when Asia opens to prepare for the manipulation and starts the run 30 min before Europe opens.
Do we all believe that it is the Asians and the Europeans who cheat. Remember that this is Dow futures that can be traded from computers anywhere. Here you just use big amounts of money if the turnover is low and 30 minutes later when Europe open the trend is already 30 min old and unstoppable.
I think it is the same group of people who are the manipulators nearly every time.
Do we all believe that it is the Asians and the Europeans who cheat. Remember that this is Dow futures that can be traded from computers anywhere. Here you just use big amounts of money if the turnover is low and 30 minutes later when Europe open the trend is already 30 min old and unstoppable.
I think it is the same group of people who are the manipulators nearly every time.
The DOW rally that started Thursday at CET 8:30 seems manipulated.
To me this is a classical example how someone make their money by manipulating the index.
Exact at CET:08:30 when the next step should be to really test the double bottom from Tuesday they started an uptrend 30 minutes before Europe opens. Trading volume is very low then. The Europeans had to cover their short positions and the uptrend continued until 11:15 with the top at 11.905. A 250 Dow points rise without any news so far in the papers. At the top of rally the group sold their long positions and they are now preparing to go short again.
Since the manipulators and their computers know where the trend will go from 8:30 to 11:15 they start buying long positions hours before the bottom.
Is it fair to manipulate a trend like this or is it OK. This is anyway the reason why only 2 percent of traders make money, big money.
Exact at CET:08:30 when the next step should be to really test the double bottom from Tuesday they started an uptrend 30 minutes before Europe opens. Trading volume is very low then. The Europeans had to cover their short positions and the uptrend continued until 11:15 with the top at 11.905. A 250 Dow points rise without any news so far in the papers. At the top of rally the group sold their long positions and they are now preparing to go short again.
Since the manipulators and their computers know where the trend will go from 8:30 to 11:15 they start buying long positions hours before the bottom.
Is it fair to manipulate a trend like this or is it OK. This is anyway the reason why only 2 percent of traders make money, big money.
DOW's current, most likely manipulated trend, is now testing important daily resistance point 11.910.3, now trading 11.885.
I am concentrating on the trend, but will come back in detail to why I think it is manipulated because it is a classical example how you make everyone but yourself loose money.
Dow 1 hr trend up.
DOW first attack to break on downside stopped. The index is now moving up fast to close this mornings gap in Asia at 11.803,4. Just now that gap was closed. The uptrend in itself is in doubt because the 2 hr chart is still down.
DOW current 2 hr chart details
The important double bottom at 2 hr chart close Tuesday is 11.657.7. Tuesdays intraday low was 11.626,7.
Dow current low 11.647,4 now trading 11.662.
All trends but the weekly are down, including the daily trend where the 8 day MA has turned down. The 1 and 2 hr charts 8 and 21 MA:s are all down supporting a new low.
Europe opens in ten minutes.
Dow current low 11.647,4 now trading 11.662.
All trends but the weekly are down, including the daily trend where the 8 day MA has turned down. The 1 and 2 hr charts 8 and 21 MA:s are all down supporting a new low.
Europe opens in ten minutes.
DOW now close to break on downside.
Less than one hour before Europe opens the down is testing Tuesdays double bottom at 11.657.2. A break below this level can send the index down to 11.454 area where the rising 8 week MA is. Dow just now at 11.665.
Greek Premier Pledges Vote in December on Debt Deal
The Greek question will most certainly have big impact where the stock markets will go. The situation is very complicated. New York Times has a good article below that shows everything I want to know now:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/world/europe/greek-cabinet-backs-call-for-referendum-on-debt-crisis.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/world/europe/greek-cabinet-backs-call-for-referendum-on-debt-crisis.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
02/11/2011
Dow 2 hr trend still up.
DOW has been trading sideways for a couple of hours and the hourly range is very short. The 8 MA is up but there is a falling one hour 21 MA now at 11.876 that have stopped the trend to go higher. The current range is between 11.770 and 11.876 and my feeling is that DOW will close within these numbers today at CET 21:00.
01/11/2011
8 week rising MA strong support for all indexes.
Despite the big falls Tuesday the 8 week MA held up well in Europe with DAX, FTSE and SWED closing just above the moving average which always is a strong support in dramatic falls like Tuesday's.
MIB, CAC and IBEX closed just below the average.
In the US the trading did not even come close to the rising 8 week MA. Dow closed at 11.657.7 and the 8 MA is at 11.453. Sp500 performed as the DOW did.
It is now CET 11: 17 and we are all waiting for what the Greece government has decided. G 20 starts tomorrow and the first thing according to Sky News is a meeting with the Greek side.
MIB, CAC and IBEX closed just below the average.
In the US the trading did not even come close to the rising 8 week MA. Dow closed at 11.657.7 and the 8 MA is at 11.453. Sp500 performed as the DOW did.
It is now CET 11: 17 and we are all waiting for what the Greece government has decided. G 20 starts tomorrow and the first thing according to Sky News is a meeting with the Greek side.
Markets Slump Amid 'Suicide' Greek Referendum
Here are the latest news about Greece from Sky news:
http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16100341
http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16100341
Panic selling all over Europe.
All European indexes have fallen steeply since opening this morning with huge gaps. The strong support from the 8 week rising MA has been penetrated in Italy and other countries's indexes are close to this MA.
The European indexes has been open two and a half hour and there is no letup in selling pressure.
DOW closed Monday at 11.956 and is now trading at a new low of 11.793. If this trend holds there could be a very nasty opening gap in the US at CET 14:30.
The European indexes has been open two and a half hour and there is no letup in selling pressure.
DOW closed Monday at 11.956 and is now trading at a new low of 11.793. If this trend holds there could be a very nasty opening gap in the US at CET 14:30.
Global Shares Fall as New Anxiety Arises Over Europe
I recommend this story which gives an update of the fundamentals at present from NYT
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/business/global/mixed-signals-for-ecb-in-european-economic-data.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/business/global/mixed-signals-for-ecb-in-european-economic-data.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
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