28/12/2011
All up trends are still in place and the indexes are moving slightly higher and higher
The U.S. indexes are strongest and there is today and two more days to month end.
I am looking for any sort of weakness in the charts but the daily up trends are very strong so far. The European indexes big picture is much weaker than the Americans.
Here is a chart of DAX that shows weekly movements during 2011 in a special angel. DAX has fallen 23 percent from high until now.
Every black bar is one week. The trend is locked in a triangle. The trend will break out of this triangle during January I think and I do not know if the break will go on upside or downside now but I will find out before it happens. The triangle out look tells me that the break out will be powerful and set the new trend for European indexes.
I am looking for any sort of weakness in the charts but the daily up trends are very strong so far. The European indexes big picture is much weaker than the Americans.
Here is a chart of DAX that shows weekly movements during 2011 in a special angel. DAX has fallen 23 percent from high until now.
24/12/2011
Dow takes a new daily and weekly closing highs Friday
The trading was slow and sideways in New York when a very strong unexpected rally started for the last 18 minutes of the session. This sudden intervention took the Dow very close to a 5 months high and the close came in just a little bit below the high at 12.288. The coming week is often quiet but with just a few participants all chart points counts.
All long and short trends but the monthly are up and looks healthy and strong now.
If the Dow closes the year above 12.564.5 the monthly trend will turn up as well.
Remember that the the first week of the new year always is very powerful so be prepared for January 2.
Below is an article from Marketwatch.
U.S. stocks look to keep holiday rise alive - MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-look-to-keep-holiday-rise-alive-2011-12-24?link=MW_Nav_MA
All long and short trends but the monthly are up and looks healthy and strong now.
If the Dow closes the year above 12.564.5 the monthly trend will turn up as well.
Remember that the the first week of the new year always is very powerful so be prepared for January 2.
Below is an article from Marketwatch.
U.S. stocks look to keep holiday rise alive - MarketWatch
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-look-to-keep-holiday-rise-alive-2011-12-24?link=MW_Nav_MA
23/12/2011
DOW and SP500 open in Asia with a gap which will force Europe to jump start.
Dow closed Thursday at 12.171.8 and opened at 12.233.3 in Asia, currently holding that level. Dow's high is 12.297.9 which can easily be taken out Friday. If that happens the monthly and weekly downtrends could be changed for the DOW.
SP500 closed Thursday at 1.254.09. Jumped to 1.262.08 in Asia which is still holding. The weekly downtrend could easily be changed Friday.
Very small movements could change the six month old downtrends for these two indexes. A very exiting trading day will start in Europe at CET 09:00.
SP500 closed Thursday at 1.254.09. Jumped to 1.262.08 in Asia which is still holding. The weekly downtrend could easily be changed Friday.
Very small movements could change the six month old downtrends for these two indexes. A very exiting trading day will start in Europe at CET 09:00.
22/12/2011
Analysis: 2012 could prove even wilder ride than 2011
I really recommend this article because it gives a good and easy to read background
to what might happen 2012.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/us-world-risk-idUSTRE7BE0UK20111215
to what might happen 2012.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/us-world-risk-idUSTRE7BE0UK20111215
All 2 hour trends have now changed to up and the daily trends have also turned up for important indexes.
There are two groups of indexes now. DOW, SP500, SWED and IBEX have not only got the 2 hour trends changed to upward but also the daily trends have turned up today as well. These indexes could now move up to test recent tops. The strongest is still the DOW which can take a new high since it is back in the 12.000 area.
FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB the biggest European indexes do not move much and does not seem to take the very good news from the Spanish surprisingly good result in the three and six months bills sales Tuesday and the 480 billion loans to the banks from ECB Wednesday as a reason to move much higher.
Yes the turnover in stocks slows by the day and usually the markets movements is not, according to many analysts, something to build upon when everyone is back Jan 2, 2012. Then the real trend will be set quickly. However the trends set now will be enough to keep the markets from falling during December and maybe DOW could take a new monthly high.
FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB the biggest European indexes do not move much and does not seem to take the very good news from the Spanish surprisingly good result in the three and six months bills sales Tuesday and the 480 billion loans to the banks from ECB Wednesday as a reason to move much higher.
Yes the turnover in stocks slows by the day and usually the markets movements is not, according to many analysts, something to build upon when everyone is back Jan 2, 2012. Then the real trend will be set quickly. However the trends set now will be enough to keep the markets from falling during December and maybe DOW could take a new monthly high.
18/12/2011
Outlook for week Dec 19, 2011
This is the last"real" trading week of the year. Already many participants have finished trading and many more will leave day by day. This does not mean that the volatility will be low.
The technical picture for the strongest index DOW, shows that the monthly trend is still down, and from the opening on Monday the weekly trend will be down for the first time in three months. The close last Friday below the weekly 8 MA indicates further fall this week from the close 11.855.7. They daily trend is still down and the 2 hour trend turned down on Wall Street the last hours. The strongest resistance point for a rally on upside will be 11.929. I do not think we will see the DOW stay above the 12.000 level more for a long time. There is however a few indicators which point to a sideways trend this week.
SP500, FTSE and DAX looks the same as DOW.
The technical picture for the strongest index DOW, shows that the monthly trend is still down, and from the opening on Monday the weekly trend will be down for the first time in three months. The close last Friday below the weekly 8 MA indicates further fall this week from the close 11.855.7. They daily trend is still down and the 2 hour trend turned down on Wall Street the last hours. The strongest resistance point for a rally on upside will be 11.929. I do not think we will see the DOW stay above the 12.000 level more for a long time. There is however a few indicators which point to a sideways trend this week.
SP500, FTSE and DAX looks the same as DOW.
The fundamental outlook for 2012 seems grim according to many analysts. Mr Rubini says: A eurozone recession is certain, the UK is double-dipping and the US is growing at a snail's pace – fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy year
China is also said to be in for a sharp slowdown.
If this week will be very slow with no big changes I will not comment.
.
16/12/2011
EURO and Stock markets hardly moving Friday
Not very much has happened since last Monday and the indexes are moving sideways with strong resistance just above and the 2 hour trends which still are up just below. The American news today did not move the markets so I do not expect any big change the rest of this Friday.
From next Monday all weekly trends will be down and the upside will be very limited until the second week in January. I will as usual make a weekly comment during the weekend.
Have a nice weekend
From next Monday all weekly trends will be down and the upside will be very limited until the second week in January. I will as usual make a weekly comment during the weekend.
Have a nice weekend
15/12/2011
14/12/2011
What happens now with the big picture?
Technically the weekly trend is the most important for the
long term trend. The drop during Monday and Tuesday and trading so far
Wednesday has made the very important 8 week MA turn down for all indexes but
the DOW. The week is not over until close on Friday but so far SP500 and FTSE
is trading below this MA which now has become resistance points, SP500 1.237
and FTSE 5.475. The DOW which is the strongest index has been holding above its
8 months falling MA at 11.952 for a long time, but suddenly fell yesterday to
close below at 11.949.6.
Today’s trading is above yesterdays close in all indexes
after 90 minutes trading in Europe but below the new resistance points. Much
can happen to change this situation before end of the week but once broken is
always broken is my key word.
Finally the EUROS new low yesterday is very important sign
for the long term picture. The currency is now technically very bearish long
term.
13/12/2011
EURO and all stock indices but FTSE and SWED take new December lows at Tuesdays close in the U.S.
All stock indexes moved up during Asia, Europe and US trading until CET 20:15 when the Fed's report was published saying no changes in policy now. DOW and SP500 fell sharply down to new December lows and closed a bit higher but still the lowest close of the month. All European indexes took new lows as well. Only SWED and FTSE held up.
The EURO took a new 11 month low on close at 1.3029. Next resistance point is 1.2907.
The 2 hour trends are down every where and I expect new lows Wednesday.
The EURO took a new 11 month low on close at 1.3029. Next resistance point is 1.2907.
The 2 hour trends are down every where and I expect new lows Wednesday.
12/12/2011
11/12/2011
A new critical week for the weekly trends starts Monday Dec 12
EUROPE must still figure out how to restore market confidence on the sovereign
debt outlook. The U.S. believes
that the European Union crisis summit made important progress in combating the
sovereign-debt crisis but more short-term money is needed to demonstrate to
markets a commitment to the euro, a senior Obama administration official said
Friday. It remains to be seen whether markets are going to decide that the
scale and capacity of Europe's bailout funds are credible – MarketWatch
My view of the markets now
There are only a few critical weeks left to break the weekly
uptrend for the DOW and the SP500. FTSE,
DAX and SWED weekly trends have now changed from up to sideways. IBEX, MIB and
CAC trends are already down.
The daily trends are all up and so is the important 2 hour
trend but this could change already in the beginning of the week December 12.
DOW and SP500 got above my targets for the key reversal for
Friday but the margin is not big so maybe the top of the current uptrend was
set Thursday for SP500 at 1.271.66 and for DOW at 12.297.9.
The overall technical picture plus the fact that the markets
have had the news from Brussels to think through and the Euro and the DAX right
now looks close to get a daily downtrend from Monday, tells me that the 2 hour
uptrend for the stock indexes could change already on Monday. What happens in
Asia will be very important for the European opening.
08/12/2011
DOW closed as a key reversal as well.
A key reversal occurs when the daily bar in this case takes a new high but closes below the day before's low. This is a technician term for that the top of the trend most likely has been seen unless next days high gets above 61,8 percent of today's high minus low.
Short traders use to watch this second day and sell if they see it will not get over 61.8 percent.
Thursday's high was 12.298 minus low 11.963 is 335 x 61,8% = 207 plus 11.963 =
12.170. According to this theory if Dow does not get above 12.170 Friday the uptrend is over.
Short traders use to watch this second day and sell if they see it will not get over 61.8 percent.
Thursday's high was 12.298 minus low 11.963 is 335 x 61,8% = 207 plus 11.963 =
12.170. According to this theory if Dow does not get above 12.170 Friday the uptrend is over.
World central banks intervention ?
The strong rally that was perfectly programmed to Nov 30 took the Euro and many indexes from the lows into a daily uptrend which still is in place. Any trials to change even the small 2 hour trends to downside has been changed to upside when trading volume has been slow. I have seen the central bank perform in interventions since the mid 1980:s and no one of the private players don't even try to fight the central banks. There has been intervention when for instance the American FED and the Japanese BOJ have stood against each other when the yen has fallen too much against the dollar but otherwise disagreement seldom occurs to my knowledge.
Now we are playing with the Euros live or die. We live in 2011 with all the technology in the world in the hands of all central banks and the governments in the world with one goal, to avoid any sort of panic if the Brussels talk does not go well. I think that we will not see a Euro collapse, at least not this month. When it comes to the stock and bond markets I believe that there are instruments and connections that can keep them above a certain level as well in the low turnover month of December.
There have been many Decembers since 1983 which I have watched where there have been problems and a break on down side or upside overdue - but not so serious as the current - but the first trading day of January it has started with a tremendous power down or up. What will happen now I don't know.
What I am trying to say I think is that we should not be surprised if a bad out come on Brussels does not immediately is reflected in the Euros behavior.
America has seen the Euro rise from 0.50 to 1.60 the last 40 years and the dollar fall from 340 to 80 against the yen. U.S. cannot exist with a strong dollar against these currencies so the US will do everything to keep the dollar weak. US has tried to get the Chinese currency to be traded freely as well but China knows that they cannot beat America when it comes to trading and pushing their currency up a few hundred percentage points.
Germany's only chance to get their currency lower has been to have the Euro instead of the Deutsch mark.To share the currency with low exporting countries.
Now we are playing with the Euros live or die. We live in 2011 with all the technology in the world in the hands of all central banks and the governments in the world with one goal, to avoid any sort of panic if the Brussels talk does not go well. I think that we will not see a Euro collapse, at least not this month. When it comes to the stock and bond markets I believe that there are instruments and connections that can keep them above a certain level as well in the low turnover month of December.
There have been many Decembers since 1983 which I have watched where there have been problems and a break on down side or upside overdue - but not so serious as the current - but the first trading day of January it has started with a tremendous power down or up. What will happen now I don't know.
What I am trying to say I think is that we should not be surprised if a bad out come on Brussels does not immediately is reflected in the Euros behavior.
America has seen the Euro rise from 0.50 to 1.60 the last 40 years and the dollar fall from 340 to 80 against the yen. U.S. cannot exist with a strong dollar against these currencies so the US will do everything to keep the dollar weak. US has tried to get the Chinese currency to be traded freely as well but China knows that they cannot beat America when it comes to trading and pushing their currency up a few hundred percentage points.
Germany's only chance to get their currency lower has been to have the Euro instead of the Deutsch mark.To share the currency with low exporting countries.
07/12/2011
Optimism is very strong before EU meeting
The EU ministers will meet Thursday and Friday. I do not know when the decision is made public but I think the old rule - buy on the rumors and sell on the news - might happen. All European indexes are in a definite bear market technically and I do not think they will rush through the falling 8 month MA:s and close there. I expect at the most a move above this curve for a while but then the uptrend will be over.
Regarding DOW and SP500 the situation is different technically and they can move higher above the falling 8 month MA but my feeling is that they will not go up to 2011 tops and they will also sell on the news. This is my feeling right now so this outcome is not written in stone.
Regarding DOW and SP500 the situation is different technically and they can move higher above the falling 8 month MA but my feeling is that they will not go up to 2011 tops and they will also sell on the news. This is my feeling right now so this outcome is not written in stone.
Germany DAX shows what can happen now
Below is DAX monthly chart. One bar is one month. The small bar to the right is December so far. If DAX moves up to the top of the daily chart the Dec bar will move up to the falling 8 month MA which has crossed the horizontal curve, 21 month MA. It can get over the 8 MA if the market reacts strongly but not very much. I think a move like that would be the last high.
05/12/2011
All index trends are still up and I expect new highs
DAX has a gap at 6.342 and FTSE a gap at 5.617 which I expect to be closed in this uptrend. There is a possibility that IBEX, MIB, SWED and CAC will test the falling 8 months MA and DOW will test the high at 12.287 and SP500 will test 1.276.
The 2 hour trend has now been up since Nov 28. I still think that what happens during this and the coming two weeks will be crucial for the long trends which so far are down.
However since the four big: DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX have had the last four daily closes far below the highs there are sellers in the market.
The 2 hour trend has now been up since Nov 28. I still think that what happens during this and the coming two weeks will be crucial for the long trends which so far are down.
However since the four big: DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX have had the last four daily closes far below the highs there are sellers in the market.
Manipulated trend again?
All European indexes are locked in a definite bear market. The last 8 days rally with new highs everyday might give the impression to many journalists that what is happening with the Euro meeting goes fine. The traders in Europe might think so as well. My own take may be odd but this is how I see it from a technical analysts perspective. All European indexes starts trading at CET 09:00. They close at 17:30. DAX, FTSE and CAC futures are trading until US close at 22:00. DOW and SP500 opens in Asia at 01:00 every morning. At that time the last few days the US indexes have moved strongly on upside so when Europe starts in the morning they start with big gaps which forces them to go higher and higher in what they think is good news. I think that the whole scenario the last three trading days is made by the big traders, that is manipulated.The rallies that has occurred in early trading in Asia looks from my perspective technically manipulated and fundamentally wrong. I have seen charts every day since 1983.
Since these rallies in the DOW and SP500 starts from a downtrend at close with a strong uptrend 3 hours later with gaps it is difficult to push away my thoughts of manipulation in the higher school. By doing so day after day these people make enormous money in Europe every day if I should be right.
However I have to analyze the trends and the fundamental facts so it is not my business who is doing what. But one day in the future some one will see why the markets sometimes move manipulated.
Since these rallies in the DOW and SP500 starts from a downtrend at close with a strong uptrend 3 hours later with gaps it is difficult to push away my thoughts of manipulation in the higher school. By doing so day after day these people make enormous money in Europe every day if I should be right.
However I have to analyze the trends and the fundamental facts so it is not my business who is doing what. But one day in the future some one will see why the markets sometimes move manipulated.
10 reasons the crisis isn’t over Commentary: There may be a lot more bad news to come
I really recommend this story to see the true big picture.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-the-crisis-isnt-over-2011-11-29
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-reasons-the-crisis-isnt-over-2011-11-29
Leaders Piece Together an Effort to Keep the Euro Intact
As crucial as this summit meeting will be for market confidence, Mrs. Merkel loves to repeat, “There is no magic wand” or “single act” to solve the euro crisis. As she told German lawmakers last week, “It is a long process, and that process will take years.”
This says it all. Will the market get confidence in the euro now this Friday. I don't think so.
Here is the whole story from New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/world/europe/leaders-piece-together-an-effort-to-keep-the-euro-intact.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
This says it all. Will the market get confidence in the euro now this Friday. I don't think so.
Here is the whole story from New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/06/world/europe/leaders-piece-together-an-effort-to-keep-the-euro-intact.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
04/12/2011
The Euro has started the trading week
Comparison of the U.S. and European stock indexes.
02/12/2011
The next few weeks will be extremely crucial for the big trends.
All stock indexes rallied the whole week on the Central banks news to keep liquidity in dollars. The last three days the closes where the same, DOW 12.010, SP500 1.244, FTSE 5.515 and DAX 6.048. It is very seldom you see three days close at the same points. The rally has brought the indexes in position to technically either let the Weekly 8 MA cross the falling 34 MA within the next three weeks and eventually start a long term uptrend. It is important to remember that the Daily 8 MA will move up until late next week and slowly lifting the floor day by day to stop eventual drops. I said several month ago that we should see the signs in mid December where this trend is going. I like this complicity and I am sure we will find he right trend unless intervention occurs.
The only indexes which have a possibility technically to do this are the strongest indexes, DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX. The 2 hour charts are close to a sell signal for all these indexes but the trends are so far still up.
The EURO has not rallied at all and finished the week at 1.3400 just 150 point higher than last week. The Euro will therefore on Monday directly see the 8 week MA turn down before crossing the 21 week falling MA, which is a bearish technical sign. However there is a possibility that the Central banks are guarding the Euro against a new bottom.
All the good and bad news this week has now been priced in. We even know what the likely outcome of the Euro minister's meeting on Dec 9 will be. I cannot find any more good news to look forward to right now. Instead traders will ask themselves if Spain and Italy now can pay their debt and other important questions about what really happened. The short covering rally cannot get any further strong help from now on because the majority of shorts have been covered and so have the gaps.
The only indexes which have a possibility technically to do this are the strongest indexes, DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX. The 2 hour charts are close to a sell signal for all these indexes but the trends are so far still up.
The EURO has not rallied at all and finished the week at 1.3400 just 150 point higher than last week. The Euro will therefore on Monday directly see the 8 week MA turn down before crossing the 21 week falling MA, which is a bearish technical sign. However there is a possibility that the Central banks are guarding the Euro against a new bottom.
All the good and bad news this week has now been priced in. We even know what the likely outcome of the Euro minister's meeting on Dec 9 will be. I cannot find any more good news to look forward to right now. Instead traders will ask themselves if Spain and Italy now can pay their debt and other important questions about what really happened. The short covering rally cannot get any further strong help from now on because the majority of shorts have been covered and so have the gaps.
All indexes took weekly highs on Europe opening and has now moved to very strong resistance points.
Watch up for US new payrolls expected to be plus 125.000. A lower number could set off a very strong reaction on down side. The non farm payrolls numbers will come at CET 14:30. Since the indexes technically have only a few points left in Europe a low number could change the upward trend.
01/12/2011
Indexes are topping out.
The European indexes closed yesterday just below the falling 8 month MA. They all are in definite bear markets and the upside potential is very limited. This MA will fall another four months and it is seldom the trend is above this MA so I look upon it as a wall. The 2 hour 8 MA has a few more hours to go before it can turn down in Europe, that is of course if no more highs are taken. But remember the daily trend is now up and it can go on for five trading days. That is the 8 day MA which is rising from a very low point and it will take time to reach up to the trend.
The U.S. indexes have not got the falling monthly 8 MA to cross the rising 21 MA. The falling MA seems to continue for at least 4 months and DOW is currently above this MA where I do not expect it to be very long. DOW and SP500 both closed below the MA but this morning it has fallen due to a new month but DOW does not seem to react so far.
The bear markets are still very well in place and now I am looking to Fridays close of the weekly chart.
When this trend turns down the target is to close the gaps at the bottom. All gaps on the upside are now closed.
This is my first take after 90 minutes trade in Europe. I want to see that no index is taken a new high the next 6 hours.
I recommend no action, just stay and wait.
The U.S. indexes have not got the falling monthly 8 MA to cross the rising 21 MA. The falling MA seems to continue for at least 4 months and DOW is currently above this MA where I do not expect it to be very long. DOW and SP500 both closed below the MA but this morning it has fallen due to a new month but DOW does not seem to react so far.
The bear markets are still very well in place and now I am looking to Fridays close of the weekly chart.
When this trend turns down the target is to close the gaps at the bottom. All gaps on the upside are now closed.
This is my first take after 90 minutes trade in Europe. I want to see that no index is taken a new high the next 6 hours.
I recommend no action, just stay and wait.
Central banks unexpected dollar news sent the markets into a tremendous short covering rally
SP500 closed Wednesday on high at 1.245.55 and the 2 hr chart trend is still very strongly up for all indexes. The daily trends have now turned up. The news were planned to take place on the last day of November resulting in unusual high monthly closes which however does not effect this big downtrend trend since no close got over the falling 8 MA:s. The weekly downtrends are so far not in danger. After close next Friday I will examine if the big trends have been damaged technically.
Just now it is just to wait and see how strong this trend is and how high it will go.
The Euro closed the month at 1.3445 and hereby stopped the monthly 5 wave trend to develop on downside. However the 8 months MA now at 1.3974 will continue to fall at least in to April. This bear market will be very difficult to change.
Just now it is just to wait and see how strong this trend is and how high it will go.
The Euro closed the month at 1.3445 and hereby stopped the monthly 5 wave trend to develop on downside. However the 8 months MA now at 1.3974 will continue to fall at least in to April. This bear market will be very difficult to change.
30/11/2011
29/11/2011
All indexes have gaps at the bottom to cover. Quick turnaround down could happen
In the current uptrend only DAX and CAC have closed their gaps. All the other indexes have to go higher. DOW to at least 11.791.3, SP 1.214.72, FTSE 5.346.52, SWED 940.07, MIB 15.230.9 and IBEX 8.303.
The 2 hr up trends are in tact and a a gap cover could happen today or within the next few days. Some indexes may not be able to close their gaps before the markets tops out and the trend changes to down. Lots of news today in Europe and the U.S. so a sudden rally or drop is in the cards.
More important is the gaps that all indexes got at the bottom when the uptrend started. That means that when the top of this uptrend is in, there could be quick falls down to these gaps. Here they are: DOW 11.240.6, SP500 1.159.40, DAX 5.456, FTSE 5.183.25, SWED 891.4, MIB 13.961, IBEX 7.761 and CAC 2.866.
I will follow trading in SP500 from now until US close and Asia opening and post messages as soon as I see something of importance.
The 2 hr up trends are in tact and a a gap cover could happen today or within the next few days. Some indexes may not be able to close their gaps before the markets tops out and the trend changes to down. Lots of news today in Europe and the U.S. so a sudden rally or drop is in the cards.
More important is the gaps that all indexes got at the bottom when the uptrend started. That means that when the top of this uptrend is in, there could be quick falls down to these gaps. Here they are: DOW 11.240.6, SP500 1.159.40, DAX 5.456, FTSE 5.183.25, SWED 891.4, MIB 13.961, IBEX 7.761 and CAC 2.866.
I will follow trading in SP500 from now until US close and Asia opening and post messages as soon as I see something of importance.
Pressure mounts on Europe as finance ministers meet
This meeting outcome could influence the Euro and the Stock markets.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111129?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111129?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
The two day uptrend finally has run into strong selling pressure
SP500 did early this morning test the crucial old resistance point 1.200.00 but were stopped just below at 1.199.64. The 2 hr chart uptrend is still in place and more tests could come during the day but the uptrend has lost its steam and and a down turn could also start. Now at 1.190. 34. It feels like the top has been seen.
A break above 1.200 would make the gap at 1.214.72 the target.
The Euro has topped at 1.3398 by the 8 day MA and is currently trading sideways. The very important resistance point at 1.3384 must hold Wednesday close to keep the long downtrend in place. Now trading 1.3329. The 2 hr uptrend is still in place but right now the trend is sideways. I feel the Euro will close the month below 1.3384.
A break above 1.200 would make the gap at 1.214.72 the target.
The Euro has topped at 1.3398 by the 8 day MA and is currently trading sideways. The very important resistance point at 1.3384 must hold Wednesday close to keep the long downtrend in place. Now trading 1.3329. The 2 hr uptrend is still in place but right now the trend is sideways. I feel the Euro will close the month below 1.3384.
28/11/2011
Germany, France press coercive euro zone debt rules
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/28/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AR0P320111128?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
Interesting story from Reuters regarding the political situation and different solution to the debt crisis. It is said that speculators want the Euro down which supports my view that the Bundesbank is watching and prepared to fight the speculators. I worked with the same situation in 1984.
Interesting story from Reuters regarding the political situation and different solution to the debt crisis. It is said that speculators want the Euro down which supports my view that the Bundesbank is watching and prepared to fight the speculators. I worked with the same situation in 1984.
Why the markets are up today
Last Friday there was a short covering rally in the Euro from the weeks low at 1.3211 up to 1.3296 within two hours before it fell back to close the week a 1.3236. Sunday the Euro opened at CET 18:00 - 7 hours before the SP500 - with a new and more powerful rally up to 1.3341. Accordingly the SP500 opened with big gap at 1.172.65 from Friday close at 1.154.40. The Euro and SP500 then went sideways until Europe opened with heavy short covering pushing the Euro and SP500 to new highs 1.3398 and SP500 1.189.99.
Since then until now the trend has been sideways again possible waiting for the US to open.
SP500 has now closed its first gap at 1.186.69. The second gap is at 1.214.72.
Of course there is a planed intervention behind all of this. It could be be the ECB wanting the euro to stop falling or someone big player who saw this as a perfect way to change the stock markets to an upside trend.
ECB has the German Bundesbank which is a specialist on currency intervention since the 1970:s.
Since then until now the trend has been sideways again possible waiting for the US to open.
SP500 has now closed its first gap at 1.186.69. The second gap is at 1.214.72.
Of course there is a planed intervention behind all of this. It could be be the ECB wanting the euro to stop falling or someone big player who saw this as a perfect way to change the stock markets to an upside trend.
ECB has the German Bundesbank which is a specialist on currency intervention since the 1970:s.
26/11/2011
Where are the stock markets going now. Part 1 The EURO
Since the main fundamental question is the Euro crisis I believe myself that where the Euro goes the stock markets will go.
PART 2, The Stock indices.
The indexes looks more or less like the Euro daily chart above. The Spanish IBEX looks the worst with the 8 week MA down before crossing the 21 week falling MA.
This is what it looks like. More or less as the Euro week chart but here the MA is turning down just before it hits the 21 MA. This use to be a very bearish sign. There is no chance what so ever to get above this falling 8 MA for the next 8 weeks if the down fall should stop here. It also use to be a very power full "push further down" sign.
The Italian MIB and the French CAC will get their 8 MA down when the new week have started and they have a bit more to fall than IBEX. DAX, FTSE, SWED and the EURO can theoretically still avoid this situation another week or two. DOW and SP500 still have their MA's on upside but they could turn sideways soon or down if a big drop happens.
Next Wednesday the falling 8 month MA:s will cross the 21 month MA and become definite bear markets for DAX and FTSE. DOW, SP500 and the EURO will still only be bear markets, which theoretically can be reversed, but have their falling 8 MA:s down steeper after this last day of November.
25/11/2011
SP500 maid a short rally for two hours and then fell back to where it started closing at a new low 11.154.39. First quick view on next week forecast tells me it does not look very good.
A complete analysis for the coming days will be published before trading starts in Asia next Sunday.
Have a nice weekend
Have a nice weekend
24/11/2011
SP500 has moved sideways slightly up since opening in Asia and first hour in Europe. This means that a bottom formation is being created which later today could set off a rally on upside. All European indexes are doing the same but IBEX which has taken a new low. Usually Thanksgiving Day is a calm day but the futures market is open as usual. So far it is just wait and see.
23/11/2011
Merkel backs ECB, warns on Greek aid tranche
The story below showed how dependent Euro banks are on ECB. Here are clear words from Merkel to German parliament, ECB's mandate is not to give out loans.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AM0L420111123
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AM0L420111123
Europe’s Banks Relying on Money From E.C.B.
This story gives a good overview of the Euro areas bank's big problems.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/banks-seek-emergency-funds-from-ecb.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/banks-seek-emergency-funds-from-ecb.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
22/11/2011
Illustration of current situation, SP500
SP500, very strong selling pressure at 1.200 holds trend below this crucial resistance point. Buyers trying to cover gap have not got enough buying strength now
What is going on is a fight between two groups. The strongest group so far sells heavily at very important chart point at 1.199.37 - 1.201.12. This point is looked at all over the world because many thinks if this points goes the bear market is not in place anymore. The other group thinks that the gap at 1.210.46 must be covered for the down trend to continue. The 2 hr chart 8 MA is up, currently 193.98 and will rise for several hours unless the buyers give up. However as the time goes by both teams will be stronger and stronger. Who will win is difficult to say. I will continue to monitor this fight.
Right now a new attack at the upside
Right now a new attack at the upside
21/11/2011
Daily technical downtrend established for all indexes. But remember the gaps.
SP500 closed Monday at 1.192.46. A close below 1.200 is another strong indication that the market will fall further. It is very important to note that a gap always will be covered. Usually this happens when a bottom has been created on the 2 hr chart and the falling 8 days MA will not be confronted. This 8 day MA gets lower by the day but for Tuesday and Wednesday it has not come down to the gap point. The gap point that a rally must reach for SP500 is at 1.210.46. All indexes have gap points so do not get surprised if a rally comes up to this level which is very near last Friday's close. The gaps were created because the Asian opening was below Fridays lowest point.
The big drop came early Monday, between CET 08:00 - 16:00. Trading after that until close at 22:00 was used by the market to move sideways and by that behavior creating the beginning of a bottom which when ready could be a starting point for a rally. Remember also that many players have short positions all the way up to Friday close. These short positions have electronic stop points for the short positions to be bought. In a rally, which usually is handled by the big boys everything goes very quickly and most of the time it is unexpected.
There are also many traders prepared to take new short positions when the rally runs out of steam. The time during this Thanksgiving week is perfect for such a rally because of small turnover.
I do not know when this rally will occur it could be Tuesday, Wednesday or some day in late December. It can also come any of the 21 hours SP500 is traded and you must be lucky to sit at your screen if you want to short the top.
The big drop came early Monday, between CET 08:00 - 16:00. Trading after that until close at 22:00 was used by the market to move sideways and by that behavior creating the beginning of a bottom which when ready could be a starting point for a rally. Remember also that many players have short positions all the way up to Friday close. These short positions have electronic stop points for the short positions to be bought. In a rally, which usually is handled by the big boys everything goes very quickly and most of the time it is unexpected.
There are also many traders prepared to take new short positions when the rally runs out of steam. The time during this Thanksgiving week is perfect for such a rally because of small turnover.
I do not know when this rally will occur it could be Tuesday, Wednesday or some day in late December. It can also come any of the 21 hours SP500 is traded and you must be lucky to sit at your screen if you want to short the top.
Analysis: Deficit deadlock may send chill through markets. US stocks could fall on failed action to lower deficit by 1.2 trillion. Failure now looks likely before deadline Wednesday.
News from Reuters just in regarding US reaction.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-usa-debt-supercommittee-a-idUSTRE7AJ0VZ20111120?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/20/us-usa-debt-supercommittee-a-idUSTRE7AJ0VZ20111120?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
20/11/2011
Outlook for the stock indexes during week Nov 21.
SP500 and all European stock indexes could technically start to fall down to 2011 lows any day this week. The only index which still is holding a
sideways trend with a possibility of a sustained upward trend is the DOW.
The hesitation to break down last Thursday and Friday was because of very
low activities which especially have been the case on Wall Street. Everyone
seems to wait for a sudden positive signal regarding the European debt. There
are lots of rumours about a sudden solution that ECB will get green light from
Germany to become the lender of last resort.
To make a forecast even more difficult is the fact that the
U.S. has their biggest holiday, Thanksgiving on Thursday 24. Many market
participants will leave Wednesday which practically means that Wall Street will
function normally less than three full days this coming week. Europe usually does not want to trade when
the US traders are off. However I expect the big players to sit at their
computers and with low volume send the indexes up and down without a real
trend.
My personal job right now, since we technically is at the
very edge of the drop with SP500 and FTSE, is to follow these two indexes in detail at
least the first three days of the week and Friday and report on this blog what
I see.
Remember that the big technical picture will get worse by
the day on the daily charts so any happy rumour from Europe with a powerful
rally will most likely be just that, a rally that will come back down again
quickly or after a few days.
19/11/2011
18/11/2011
Friday stock indices have moved above yesterdays low but very little. Now SP500 and FTSE is both very close to take out yesterdays bottom. If this occur a substantial drop can occur
However DOW is still holding above 8 weekly MA so a double bottom could well occur Friday in New York including FTSE and SP500.
Before US trading next Monday I will have an outlook report ready.
Have a nice weekend
Before US trading next Monday I will have an outlook report ready.
Have a nice weekend
European problems get worse, no clear solution while debt yield increases
Here is a good article from Reuters about all the problems Europe are trying to solve and how Germany so far stops lending from ECB and much more.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AC15K20111118?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7AC15K20111118?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
17/11/2011
US and European trends down approaching very important resistance levels.
The technical picture has deteriorated significantly since Wednesday. DOW, SP500, FTSE, DAX and SWED are moving in tandem down to test important resistance points which if broken can cause big drops.
The daily trends are now definitely down and several support points have been broken since Europe opened.
Today and tomorrow Friday could be the beginning of the next big move down.
The daily trends are now definitely down and several support points have been broken since Europe opened.
Today and tomorrow Friday could be the beginning of the next big move down.
16/11/2011
IMPORTANT information about the markets next move.
All the stock indexes have now been trying to get higher for three weeks and three days. The last hour Wednesday in New York the Dow fell 184 points to close at 11.903. SP500 fell 19 points the last hour to close at 1.236.96. The only technical obstacle to a sharper drop is the rising 8 week MA. This MA will continue to rise a few more weeks and could technically hold DOW and SP500 up with continued possibilities to take new highs. However SP500 looks more and more unlikely to go higher and a new technical factor has come in to play that could stop SP to take new high. To cover all eventualities, even an unlikely break of the 8 week MA I already now want you to be aware that these two indexes can start falling from now on.
The euro has taken a new low Wednesday getting below strong resistance points which adds to my cautiousness and ECB has been forced to buy Italian and Spanish bonds since the market wants higher and higher yield by the day. A sharp drop can occur any time now and a falling Euro could scare the stock markets.
Summary: The situation in the markets is difficult to read during this period of quick turnaround in trends and new information dropping in about Europe's debt crises which still affect the markets on both side of the pond sharply. No exact time could be set now for the drop I expect.
The euro has taken a new low Wednesday getting below strong resistance points which adds to my cautiousness and ECB has been forced to buy Italian and Spanish bonds since the market wants higher and higher yield by the day. A sharp drop can occur any time now and a falling Euro could scare the stock markets.
Summary: The situation in the markets is difficult to read during this period of quick turnaround in trends and new information dropping in about Europe's debt crises which still affect the markets on both side of the pond sharply. No exact time could be set now for the drop I expect.
Dow closed Tuesday at 12.091.7 after a sharp selloff the last hour. Asia started with a drop gap taken DOW to a low of 11.936. When Europe opened Dow rallied on upside to close the gap and now the index is trading around Tuesdays closing level.
However the 2 hour trend is still down and this gap covering rally will soon come back down below the falling 21 and 8 MA at he 2hr chart at 12.042.
15/11/2011
Monthly charts now of DOW, SP500, DAX, FTSE, SWED, MIB, IBEX and CAC with comments
DOW is moving up and down the falling 8 MA and can change the bear trend.
SP500 is trading between the MA:s and have difficulties to get above the 8 MA
DAX, first chart below,will most likely become a definite bear market Dec 1. The same will happen to FTSE, second chart. SWED, third chart, is in a definite bear market and so are MIB, IBEX and CAC.
DOW closed Monday at 12.077, Asia traded sideways. Europe trend down.
DOW and SP500 have done a three wave correction on downside since last Friday close. If it stays that way an upside rally with start during the day. However there is a strong fight going on between sellers and buyers right now to push the DOW below an hourly close of 12.027 which will send the index into a fifth wave on downside signalling that a new test of the highs is not imminent. CET 11:00 the hourly close came just above 12.027 and the market forces on one hand are still working to hold this point to be able to start a new uptrend and on the other side those who want a break on downside. We just have to wait and see how this will be played out.
14/11/2011
The Euro is back to a very critical point.
EURUSD neckline in a big head and shoulder formation on the 2 hr chart is at 1.3653.8. This neckline was broken Nov 9 but a retest of the neckline Nov 11 was positive and the euro rallied to a top at 1.3807.7. Today the euro is falling again and last 2 hr close was just 6 points above the neckline. It is very important to keep an eye on the euro because it tells a lot where the stock markets are heading.
The first neckline break 2 hr closing low was at 1.3495.8. A close below this point could trigger a dramatic drop in the euro.
The first neckline break 2 hr closing low was at 1.3495.8. A close below this point could trigger a dramatic drop in the euro.
13/11/2011
Road to U.S. recovery goes through Rome Debt crisis in Italy. Secondly here is a few words about the very big picture
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/road-to-us-recovery-goes-through-rome-2011-11-13?siteid=rss&rss=1
This article is not only about Europe but how the American economy performs. If the European debt crisis was not looming the company results, inflation and increasing consumer spending would put US in a good economic situation, according to the article. I doubt that. I think the national and especially the private debt in the US and Britain sooner rather than later will punish those which prints money to cover its debt. Europe except England do not print money so far because of Germany's definitive no to even that thought. For hundreds of years governments have printed money to make ends meet and as far as I know no country have avoided severe economic aftermath in that way. Of course US can go on this way, maybe for many years, but one day the economy will collapse. If Europe collapses because they refuse to print money that does not mean America and England are safe by doing so.
In May we had all the indexes at the top. I have calculated how much each index has lost in value from that top until last Fridays's close.
Index Percentage loss
DOW 6
SP500 8
FTSE 9
SWED 17
DAX 20
IBEX 22
CAC 24
MIB 30
The monthly charts of course look different. The US and English indexes fall steep but also recover very strongly every month. The European indexes fall steeply but does not recover that much. Why this is could be the more advanced computer trading systems and the much frequently used short positions in the US especially. I also think that manipulation is easier to do with the DOW index which SP500 always mainly follow.
Only DOW and SP500 have the chance to reverse the bear market. All other indexes cannot technically do that. SP500 has a less chance than the DOW. That is one of reasons I have followed DOW in this blog.
Only DOW and SP500 have the chance to reverse the bear market. All other indexes cannot technically do that. SP500 has a less chance than the DOW. That is one of reasons I have followed DOW in this blog.
DOW Friday close 12.153.1. What is next?
The question is if all the news are priced in or not. Will the market take out the final high at 12.284 in the uptrend that started Oct 4 and how high will it go after that. Or will the Dow just stop where it is now.
These three countries are in a new situation with the people behind them so far. How will it play out? Can they make it ? I think the markets will give them at least a month to try. The technical picture still points to mid December or the beginning of January for turning down, unless we take new highs from here.
Regime Change in Europe: Do Greece and Italy Amount to a Bankers' Coup?
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2099350,00.html?xid=rss-
topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+International
Yesterday I had an article from Reuters about Spain. Here is the story about Greece and Italy from The Times.
topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+International
Yesterday I had an article from Reuters about Spain. Here is the story about Greece and Italy from The Times.
12/11/2011
Analysis: Spain Recession More Likely on New Austerity By REUTERS
Spain have elections Nov 20. PP is expected to be the new majority party. What will they do.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/11/10/business/business-us-spain-election-economy.html?pagewanted=1
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/11/10/business/business-us-spain-election-economy.html?pagewanted=1
11/11/2011
Greece and Italy Seek a Solution From Technocrats
Here is a very good article about Greece and Italy just now and what might happen. Less pessimistic than earlier reports.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/world/europe/greece-and-italy-ask-technocrats-to-find-solution.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/world/europe/greece-and-italy-ask-technocrats-to-find-solution.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss
DOW 2hr chart zoomed in
DOW moves in a triangle since Oct 27. See picture beneath. 2 hour chart.
It seems right now as if the 8 MA will not be able to cross the 34 falling MA so I think that the trend might break on downside during the day.
10/11/2011
DOW closed Thursday 11.823. Big picture now
Dow weekly bars. This week - the last bar is holding within last weeks bar. The rising 8 MA will rise steeper up for three to five weeks. I do not expect Dow to stay below this MA. That means continued sideways trend or upwards. The 34 MA will start next Monday to go steeper down. All I want to know is if the 8 MA will cross 34 MA or not.
DOW outlook Thursday
This is a 4 hour chart from uptrend started at 10.400 Oct 4 until the top at 12.249 Oct 27. Then the drop down to the horizontal line at 11.663 where a double bottom was created. Then an upward trend in three waves to Tuesdays high of 12.184 followed by a break down to Wednesday's close at 11.782. I expect a test Thursday of the horizontal line. A break below 11.626 can send DOW to 11.000 area.(Chart Saxobank)
09/11/2011
Nouriel Roubini sees double-dip recession: report
Big picture. Recommended reading now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nouriel-roubini-sees-double-dip-recession-report-2011-11-08
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nouriel-roubini-sees-double-dip-recession-report-2011-11-08
08/11/2011
07/11/2011
The DOW charts from Big Charts, the two yellow charts that you just have seen is the cash market that opened CET 15:30. What I refer to is the future market which opens already at CET 02:00 and especially the short term charts look very much different. I will publish the future charts as well now and then. They have a white back ground.This was just to give you an idea what it looks like. The future market is the most important market.
Here is the hourly chart where you can see that the uptrend is strong.
See how the yellow 8 hr MA has turned up before crossing the blue 21 hr MA. That means a strong trend and the resistance points might be attacked several more times.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F7%2F2011&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=8%2C21%2C34&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=1&style=320&size=4&x=54&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F7%2F2011&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=8%2C21%2C34&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=1&style=320&size=4&x=54&y=7&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Italy government borrowing rates hit euro-era high
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15617132
Read the whole article from BBC, especially" Beginning of the end"
Read the whole article from BBC, especially" Beginning of the end"
Euro zone set for 2012 recession: SocGen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -– French bank Societe Generale said Monday it expects the euro-zone economies to fall into recession next year, adding that growth is also likely to be on the weaker side for the U.S. and China.
Europe leaves summit empty-handed
A grand plan to save the euro zone fell apart after a tumultuous G20 summit at the site of the Riviera's famous film festival. WSJ's Charles Forelle reports from Cannes.
The bank said financial stress conditions, elevated from the failure to resolve the euro-zone crisis, will elevate credit costs, erode confidence and result in negative wealth effects.
It warned that businesses are holding off hiring and investment plans as the crisis has moved from the financial sphere to undermine confidence in the real economy.
“The spillover from the euro-debt crisis has proven greater than previously expected and we now see recession as inevitable,”
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