02/12/2011

The next few weeks will be extremely crucial for the big trends.

All stock indexes rallied the whole week on the Central banks news to keep liquidity in dollars. The last three days  the closes where the same, DOW 12.010, SP500 1.244, FTSE 5.515 and DAX 6.048. It is very seldom you see three days close at the same points. The rally has brought the indexes in position to technically either let the Weekly 8 MA cross the falling 34 MA within the next three weeks and eventually start a long term uptrend. It is important to remember that the Daily 8 MA will move up until late next week and slowly lifting the floor day by day to stop eventual drops. I said several month ago that we should see the signs in mid December where this trend is going. I like this complicity and I am sure we will find he right trend unless intervention occurs.
The only indexes which have a possibility technically to do this are the strongest indexes, DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX. The 2 hour charts are close to a sell signal for all these indexes but the trends are so far still up.

The EURO has not rallied at all and finished the week at 1.3400 just 150 point higher than last week. The Euro will therefore on Monday directly see the 8 week MA turn down before crossing the 21 week falling MA, which is a bearish technical sign. However there is a possibility that the Central banks are guarding the Euro against a new bottom.

All the good and bad news this week has now been priced in. We even know what the likely outcome of the Euro minister's meeting on Dec 9 will be. I cannot find any more good news to look forward to right now. Instead traders will ask themselves if Spain and Italy now can pay their debt and other important questions about what really happened. The short covering rally cannot get any further strong  help from now on because the majority of shorts have been covered and so have the gaps.


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