22/11/2014

All things considered

Below are all the charts, monthly, weekly and daily. The monthly trends all look to go on forever in this long bull market. See how small 2008 drops looks and the preceding tops. What I would like to see is further acceleration on upside before a top. Weekly trends are less stable and the daily trends are in for what I see is the final blow out before the collapse.

Timing is important to find that top. Bull market seldom goes on for six years as this one. The big world fundamental situation and forecasts are negative. The SP500 are worth current price - but not higher. Growth is stalling, unemployment is not falling, debt increases everywhere, interest rates cannot fall further. A stock market downturn now cannot be stopped by any government, which has been the rule in 2008 for instance.

The technical picture wants a very steep end of the long up trend and it is getting that now. Only question is for how long this rally will go on. SP500 target is 2.100, DOW is 18.000.and we are just a few points away. The best investment I can think of now is long term short positions.

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