27/09/2013

All things considered

DOW and SP500 have the daily 8 MA falling which technically means trends are down. Beginning of next week will see steeper fall in 8 MA:s. On the other side the 21 MA:s are strongly up so the price could move within these ranges. However the 2 hr sell signal on the US 10 year bonds on a crossover 4 hours ago could be dangerous if that down trend accelerates. The 2 hr stock indexes charts short term is up but the 50, 100 and 200 MA:s are pointing down on most indexes. The double tops in HSI and NIK will not start falling until earliest on Monday. US seems to have big troubles with passing budget in Congress.

I am one of the few bear analysts right now but both the technical and fundamental picture looks bad later this Autumn. Markets always moves on downside long before there are any bad signs and the majority of analyst are bullish. To me the rising interest rates in US and Europe and the enormous mountain of debt everywhere and slow growth and a bull market since spring 2009 must sooner or later affect the markets negatively. That time is now very close according to me. I do not believe in new stock markets highs but in a continued topping out process. It is always difficult to go against the majority of analysts but it is better to make a strong warning for coming bear markets all over the globe.

So from today we are starting to short the indexes for long term investments.


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