The 2007 - 2009 bear market's look or pattern told me that when the bottom was hit an uptrend would start immediately and be strong in the beginning but I had no idea that it would be a bull market like this. When I look at SP500 chart below one thing among others seems clear. This will be a sudden top lasting a short time. Technically we are at the very final run. I have been taking very small short positions positions for 10 days. I am currently short at 1.631.80. I skip the first number from now.
The high last week was 634.50. The close Friday was 632.26. My current theory is that the upper Wedge channel line will hold and the three days doubletop. But for every new day the long wedge channel becomes a little bit higher. I am trading SAXO banks CFD which is live from 00:00 until US close at 22:00. There is one point between buy and sell and each point gives you one dollar. I have had SAXO platform for 10 years and know it well. But observe I am an analyst and not a trader.Two different personalities. Traders only enemies are fear and greed. An analyst live a very calm life without enemies just trying to make the best forecast possible.
Why do I want to short the very top? First of all because I still think it is possible - a competition with myself. The most difficult decision is to take a position. That could take months. Today with computer trading at its best there is more or less impossible to not be stopped out where ever you put your stop. Because of that I do not use stops or limits. The risk is bigger if you have not planned your position taking very very well and follow the trading especially in the US live until close. What I am saying here no one but myself agree with. Most analysts do not understand how today's computer trading functions and that is why only 2 percent of traders make a profit. A few years ago 5 percent made a profit.
A daily and especially a weekly trend is out of reach for computer trading but the 2 hour trend that was a sure bet just a year ago is not that anymore. It can easily go the "wrong" way now. Last week I followed the 2 hr chart every minute in the US and 30 years of experience which has guided me until then was squashed nearly every hour. Just less that a minute from the two hour close suddenly the bar moved up or down to stop my personal forecast for the coming two hours. This is as far as the robots can do it know. A given trend is changed the last 30 seconds. Now we know we are approaching a final top, that is a plus so an eventual loss will be small. Question is if the brain in my head can keep the positions small enough to have money left for the D-day. I am currently holding my positions below 3 percent of my account value.
To win big crave big risk and I am stubborn. Here is my personal chart for the daily trend continuing 00:00 tonight in Asia.
SP500 day Friday closed in a wedge with a daily double top. The threat comes from a sudden jump at Monday opening, the rising 8 MA and the rising upper channel. I believe that channel will hold right now but Monday's bar might take a higher top by hitting it. Technically Monday and Tuesday are the two risk days because the lows 8 days back will be at low daily close point lifting the 8 MA a bit extra. The 2 hr and smaller charts is not relevant in this phase at present. The weekly chart and the daily are what matters in my game now.
The high last week was 634.50. The close Friday was 632.26. My current theory is that the upper Wedge channel line will hold and the three days doubletop. But for every new day the long wedge channel becomes a little bit higher. I am trading SAXO banks CFD which is live from 00:00 until US close at 22:00. There is one point between buy and sell and each point gives you one dollar. I have had SAXO platform for 10 years and know it well. But observe I am an analyst and not a trader.Two different personalities. Traders only enemies are fear and greed. An analyst live a very calm life without enemies just trying to make the best forecast possible.
Why do I want to short the very top? First of all because I still think it is possible - a competition with myself. The most difficult decision is to take a position. That could take months. Today with computer trading at its best there is more or less impossible to not be stopped out where ever you put your stop. Because of that I do not use stops or limits. The risk is bigger if you have not planned your position taking very very well and follow the trading especially in the US live until close. What I am saying here no one but myself agree with. Most analysts do not understand how today's computer trading functions and that is why only 2 percent of traders make a profit. A few years ago 5 percent made a profit.
A daily and especially a weekly trend is out of reach for computer trading but the 2 hour trend that was a sure bet just a year ago is not that anymore. It can easily go the "wrong" way now. Last week I followed the 2 hr chart every minute in the US and 30 years of experience which has guided me until then was squashed nearly every hour. Just less that a minute from the two hour close suddenly the bar moved up or down to stop my personal forecast for the coming two hours. This is as far as the robots can do it know. A given trend is changed the last 30 seconds. Now we know we are approaching a final top, that is a plus so an eventual loss will be small. Question is if the brain in my head can keep the positions small enough to have money left for the D-day. I am currently holding my positions below 3 percent of my account value.
To win big crave big risk and I am stubborn. Here is my personal chart for the daily trend continuing 00:00 tonight in Asia.
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