Where are the stock markets going now : January 2013

31/01/2013

DOW 2 hr trend still down. Could easily rally or drop.

DOW 2 hr 13:04

This is last day of the month and the close is very important for the long term charts and especially what will happen the days after.

DOW working to test days low again

DOW 15 min 12:02

SWED did not make a key reversal. Top is being tested again and the big R line number one.

SWED month 11:25

SWED has made a a key reversal so far in the last bar that closes 11:00. That could be a sign that the top is reached.

SWED 2 hr 10:31

FTSE is now testing the S point on downside and the DAX is also in a downtrend

FTSE 2 hr 10:19

DAX 2 hr 10:20

DOW day and 15 min gives a good picture of what is going on.

DOW day 10:07

The long uptrend is very well in place and the 8 MA should give support on a drop

DOW 15 min 10:09

After the big drop a 5 wave correction up trend has been done without reaching the small R points top before the uptrend. It is possible that the downside pressure will get stronger soon.

DOW is seeking support above S line.. Lots of US news at 14:30 and at 15:45 that can move the markets.

DOW 2 hr 09:43

Dow 8 hr MA is still keeping the bars below its line but there is support above the technical S line. Asia and Europe are not keen to trade the Dow. The 21 MA has not start falling yet and a sudden rally could easily destroy the downtrend which has been sideways for many hours now.

30/01/2013

FTSE falls out of channel and takes new daily low at 6.312

FTSE 2 hr 21:28

DOW takes new daily low at 13.909

DOW 2 hr 21:18

DOW 2 hr 8 ma turns down but still support at rising 21 MA.

DOW day 16:59

DOW 2 hr 17:04

Trading range now between the MA;s that is 13.930 and 13.956.

DOW 15 min close below S line.

Dow 15 min 16:35

DOW 2 hr 8 MA is currently down but the 21 MA should give support.

DOW 2 hr 16:16

DOW 1 hr trend is close to down but no cross yet.

DOW 1 hr 16:07

Dow fell before hourly close making the 8 MA pointing down but only close to cross. At 20:15 the Fed will tell their rate decision.

DOW rallies

DOW 30 min 15:46

Here comes the rally which gets above the 30 min downtrend without problems

DOW 30 min trend is now down with both 8 and 21 MA down.

DOW 30 min 15:36

If the rate is holding around this area the 1 hr trend will be down at 16:00. But remember that the 2 hour trend with cross and 8 and 21 MA down is the safest sign to avoid big rallies to new high. Smaller trends can often easily be taken out.

DOW now trading at exactly US close yesterday waiting for opening in 14 minutes.

DOW 15 min 15:15

Look again at this picture and ask yourself what had happened if you had no stops. Most certainly a smaller loss then with a "safe" stop. I have not used stops since 1987 because I lost to much. You should know the direction of the trend and how it will move so you never need a stop. Otherwise you should not trade. The biggest money to earn is to find a long term top or bottom and stay in for a year or more. That goes for currencies and gold as well. Do never "take home" the profit because the big difficulty is to find the buying or selling point again and again. It happens that I can wait for more than 2 years to find the exact point for my position.

DOW is attacking R line from above on close.

DOW 15 min 14:50

Observe that the big drop only resulted in a close above the earlier low close. Now the bears want a 15 min close below the S line.

A sudden drop took out long positions and confirmed the sell signal earlier

DOW 15 min 14:34

Here is another important piece of remembrance. When it has become clear that the cross is real then the professionals send the market as high as they can above the falling MA:s and sell the top to get short positions. Always wait for that run to take your own short positions. In this chart it is the bar second from the left.

DOW sideways to down now. A reminder when trading US indexes.

DOW 15 min 14:12

Monday at 22:00 the DOW closed at 13.886. Tuesday Europe got a low at 14:00 at 13.857 - that is below the close in the US. Sideways for a while and then the 8 MA turns up and later crosses the 21 MA on upside (upside cross) starting a strong rally until 30 min before US closed at 13.968. Very very often this happens when the trend is below yesterdays close in the U.S. at opening. A US short covering starts which can be powerful as yesterday. In these situations be very careful, that is my message.