02/12/2012

SP500 daily trend is up but has a second day close below the 50 day MA

SP500 day now. The index 8 MA will cross the 34 MA Monday. This chart is more complicated than the DOW's. Most important now is if the index will continue on upside  to get above FIB 61.8, which you can see just above the last two bars. The main rule here is that if an index gets above 61,8 % of the drop from the top there is a presumption that the top will be tested again. Here we have the steep falling 50 MA which will continue to fall - and so will the 34 MA. The 21 MA will open up for the first time, but just a little Monday but then it will fall the next two days if SP500 does not close above the 50 MA. The 8 MA will keep moving up the first two days but then lose momentum strongly. Since all the main indexes use to move together the best help is to watch the DOW and see what it does.

SP500 2 hr now. There are five waves up from the bottom and the first wave on downside is done. The second wave on upside took us to the close. The 8 MA will turn down on opening tonight unless Asia start a rally. If ASIA takes the index on downside there could be a quick cross with the 21 MA which in itself will start falling latest at 04.00 if the trend is sideways or down the first two hours. At this moment the direction of the second wave is unclear.

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