DOW second warning for bear market now. DOW closed Wednesday at 12.934.2.

My first warning for DOW moving into a bear market is in my blog Oct 25. Please read it again now since everything is explained there and I will now continue with my reasons for this second warning.

This is DOW monthly bar chart since February 2011. The 8 month MA have turned down and the DOW closed below this line. The MA is currently at 13.013. If DOW holds below this R point which is the strongest MA, a bear market will start.

DOW weekly bar chart. See how the blue 8 MA is at the top of this weeks bar and pushes it down at 13.303. The DOW fell below the important R point 12.974, which is the horizontal line. The line holds the left bottom of the head at the low - bar no 10 from the right. By closing below this S point there could be argued that a break of a head and shoulder formation - H&S - has occurred. If that is the case a very steep fall could come.

DOW daily chart with the same horizontal line and the rising 200 day MA which DOW has closed below Wednesday. The 8 MA is turning down without crossing the falling 21 MA. Here you can see my thoughts of H&S as well.

Here you can easily see my thoughts of a H&S. DOW day chart in line formation with only closings. In my blog Oct 25 I showed how to count the waves. The third wave stopped there. From there the fourth wave has moved up to the double tops below the falling 21 day MA. By breaking down from the last top the fifth and last wave was launched today by breaking the third waves low. There are now a five wave daily down trend from the DOW's top which means that the top have been seen and a bear market might have started. A top followed by a five a five waves downtrend is always the beginning of a long term downtrend.

Finally I think that today's bar might be a Key Reversal bar by moving higher than Tuesday's high and closing below Tuesday's low.