18/03/2012

IMPORTANT MESSAGE. The DOW's big picture until now.

DOW weekly from 2007 until now. The bull market started in March 2009 at 6.655 and made the first wave up to 11.200 in April 2010  see number 1 on the chart. The wave lasted 13 months. Then a correction wave down to 9.680 in June 2010, number 2. The third wave on upside to 12.810 in April 2011 number 3 took 10 months. The fourth wave correction took the index down to 10.765 in September 2011, number 4. From here started the fifth and final wave on upside reaching 13.233 on March 16, 2012. This wave have now lasted 6 months.
The all time high in 2007 is at 14.093 only 860 higher than last Fridays close. Since the current wave is the last before the big trend turns down I am now concentrating to find the final top in this bull market and write less about daily movements.
No one knows now when it will come or what the top will be. There are forecasts made with different models and instruments. Eisenstadt for instance think DOW will be traded at 14.360 in August, and SP500 in 1.520 area about 8.4 percent higher from now.
The big question is do I want to invest money in stocks now or is the final move up too risky that I instead should be prepared to sell my investment.


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