SP500 2006 - 2012, March 30

SP500's trend is strongest. The March 30, 2012 close was 1.407. The target is firstly the May 2008 top at 1.424 before the 2007 big head could be tested.

DOW 2006 - 2012, March 30

DOW's fifth wave to test the all time high is still strong. The last three weeks there has been a sideways trend but that does not at present stop the trend. This is the second strongest trend in the world. However since FTSE seems to have real problems I have to look for weakness the next few weeks in DOW as well.

IBEX 2006 - 2012, March 30

IBEX 2007 all time high to the left. The 2009 bottom is at 6.900. Closed March 30 at 8.005. The low to the left is from Nov 2011 at 7.739. A break of this bottom could take IBEX to test the low at 6.900.

DAX 2006 - 2012, March 30

DAX 2007 all time high is the triple top to the left. The current rally to get above 2011 double top seems under way but there are difficulties at present which might be overcome.

SWED weekly chart 2006 - 2012, March 30

SWED all time high is the top to the left. It looks like the index has difficulties to move higher and take the 2011 double top. Have to wait and see the next few weeks

FTSE week 2006 - 2012

FTSE100 until March 30, 2012. The double top to the left is all time high 2007. To me it looks at present as the bull market since 2009 is over. The top was 6.093 in April 2011. The 2012 top was 5.965.
To me it also looks like a big head and shoulder and the right shoulder is now complete. Right now it seems like the next move will be down to the neckline at 5.000 which I think will break taking FTSE down to 4.000 area long term. FTSE use to show the way for other indexes so I am not bullish for the markets any longer.

Treasurys head to second monthly loss U.S. debt has worst start to a year since 2009

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-head-to-second-monthly-loss-2012-03-30

U.S. stock market’s rise leaves many behind Index-based ETFs a factor in reduced trading volume

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-markets-rise-leaves-many-behind-2012-03-30?siteid=nwham

SWED big picture daily chart.

SWED has now got a double bottom at 1.058 area. The upside target should be 1.077.75. If that is broken 1.101.44 is next. If it holds it will go sideways for a couple of days and then retest the bottom. However a new test of the bottom can occur Friday or Monday.

Spanish government to unveil 'very austere' budget

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17557172

UK is back in recession, OECD says The OECD says UK output will decline 0.4% in the first three months of 2012 on an annualised basis

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/29/uk-back-in-recession-oecd

FTSE NEW LOW AT 5.727. Next support 5.679.43

DOW has been building a support bottom during 19 hours for a rally on upside. A break on downside will most likely happen if DOW gets below 13.066.7 bottom and hold below this point

Dow trends are down, now at 13.072. Supports are at 13.066.7 and 12.997.7

Lots of economic data will be released in the US at CET 14:30. This could shake the markets completely so watch up

DAX new daily low at 6.913.37. Last support before bigger drop at 6.907.16

SWED has broken 1.067.92 at 1.067.41. Now retesting breakout point from below

IBEX new low at 7,911. Support at 7.728 and 7.597.8

SWED very important last resistance point before bigger drop at 1.067.92 is under attack. Low so far 1.067.94. Now 1.069.76. If break occurs resistance is at 1.058.85 and finally 1.054.52

FTSE takes new 15 days low at 5.756. Resistance at 5.749 and 5.737

FTSE breaks important 5.800 support now trading 5.795

SWED breaks out on downside taking new daily low at 1.081.66

FTSE now in long term falling daily trend.

SP500 and DAX new lows sharply down

DOW takes new low at 13.170

FTSE breaks day range on downside. Now trading 5.840

IBEX has broken important 8.075 level now falling to test last supports 7.738 to 7.502 area. Now trading 8.024.

DOW, SP500, FTSE and DAX now trading in the same pattern sideways at the bottom of today's ranges. If one breaks down or up all the others will follow.

DOW has broken today's range on downside with a new low at 13.175.8

DOW and SP500 set new hourly low closes making likelihood bigger to break range on downside later.

SP500 is building a bottom around Wednesdays close for an uptrend later. Been working for 16 hours and so far this bottom can work but it is in no way clear that it will manage. Now trading 1.412.66

FTSE is trading as expected. Range 5.877.50 - 5.841.88. My bear target at 5.886 has held so far. Now trading 5.866

DOW is locked between 13.179.5 and 13.243 in Europe. Now trading 13.220. A break on upside or downside will probably decide the next bigger move.

IMPORTANT MESSAGE. FTSE100 is very likely to get a clear daily downtrend Wednesday which means a sell signal and the end of the index uptrend since November 24, 2011.

This is the first real sign that the uptrend might be over soon for the European indexes. SWED is just behind FTSE in the trend development.

FTSE seems right now to get the falling 8 day MA to cross the 21 day falling MA on opening in Europe Wednesday at CET 09:00. At Tuesday close in the US the 8 MA crossed the falling 34 MA. The days trading ended with a spike that is a close at the bottom and the weekly 8 MA has turned down. If I am correct FTSE will not hold above 5.886 Wednesday.

The only fact that can stop the daily downtrend now at 02:50 is an unexpected rally in Asia or early European trading. So far Asia is calm. To confirm the down trend I would like to see FTSE close below 5.800 Wednesday or Thursday.

All indexes takes new lows after the 12:00 close in Europe.

The sudden drop in all indexes makes this mornings trading in Europe look like a bull trap. Exciting trading will most likely continue

All indexes 2 hour bar falls down to bottom before CET 12:00 close

Main indexes still strong on upside with new daily highs

SP500 new daily high at 1.424.7. Next resistance 1.439.10.
DOW new high 13.314.5. Resistance 13.333.5 and 13.616.5
DAX new daily high 7.152.6 which closed the top gap. Resistance now at 7.166

FTSE daily high at 5.942 but now back to 5.920. SWED high 1.109.54. Target is gap at 1.118.

EURO taking new daily high at 1.3378. Resistance at 1.3450.

German Leader Agrees to More Bailout Money for Euro Zone Nations

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/business/global/germany-agrees-to-increasing-bailout-money-for-euro-zone-nations.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

All indexes close strongly on upside. IBEX took back half of today's fall at close

SP500 still in the lead by taking a new closing high Monday at 1.416.35. Trend strongly up. DOW strong upside close. Trend top is the target at 13.288. DAX the same movement as the DOW still.

SWED and FTSE both closed up and penetrated resistance points. Still below falling 8 day MA. SWED target could be gap close at 1.118.22. FTSE got two gaps, 5.953.75 and 5.991.88.

EURO and GOLD rallies as well. 

DAX rallies. Resistance at 7.088.8, 7.110.74 and a gap that must be closed sooner or later at 7.153

DOW rallies in Europe. Two hour trend up. Resistance at 13.209.8 and 13.246.9

Main indexes now

SP500 is the strongest index still at the top of the rising daily trend. Is being held up by the strong Nasdaq stocks. DOW looks good as well locked in a rising daily uptrend between the falling 8 MA and the rising 21 MA. DAX have the same daily trend as the DOW and is the strongest European index.

SWED looks dangerous with current trading below the falling 8, 21 and 34 days MA. There is no cross on the downside of these MA yet but the overall picture does not look bullish at all and this index should be watched closely now. Even the weekly chart looks like the beginning of a downturn in a while.

FTSE is the weakest of the big European indexes with the weekly 8 MA now pointing down. FTSE is trading sideways in the daily trend. Should be watched the same way as SWED which both use to show the way for the next bigger move.

This week with the coming monthly close is very important to forecast the big trends. I do not see buying opportunity any where and I would not be playing any index now just wait with cash.

IBEX falls Monday steep for the fourth consecutive day. Last support is at 8.075. If broken a sharp drop to danger area around 7.775 could happen. Watch closely. Now trading at 8.143

Money moves 5 doomsayers are making now Prophets of gloom look to profit from Fed, corporate actions

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/money-moves-5-doomsayers-are-making-now-2012-03-23?pagenumber=1 

DAX very strong support at 6.957 has held for 24 hours so the trend is now moving up to test very strong resistance at 7.000.

DOW daily trading range seems to be 12.997.7 - 13.104.7. Resistance and support points both very strong. DOW trading around in the middle currently at 13.046.

DOW could not take back 15 min close resistance in first attempt.

DOW takes new low at 12.997. Now trying to retest 13.023 resistance

INDEXES are moving within yesterday's high & low three hours after Europe opening with one exception for IBEX which is trading in a new low. One trial of rally for short covering did not succeed in the DOW.

Spain and Italy too big to save in focus again.

IBEX 1992 - 2012.

 Next week it is time to look at euro safety again when politicians in Europe will discuss bigger funds. Germany seems unwilling to make the funds big enough to save Spain and Italy. Citibank says Spain is the biggest problem and interest rates for loans are moving up again. IBEX is the weakest index in the euro zone and the monthly trend might continue sideways to down. Jobless figures are above 30 percent in many regions, big austerity programs in place and no growth. The government will present the austerity programs for Andalusia, the worst hit region, after elections before end of March.

Spain is very close to the 2009 start of the last bull market and has not moved on upside at all compared to the big indexes. A monthly close below the 2009 bottom would be catastrophic. 

FTSE100 could lose 40 percent of its value from this weeks high before end of 2012 and 20 percent latest in July if the 2011 top is not taken soon.

SWED next support at 1.064

SP500 is closing down to test last support at 1.389.33 before next support at 1.380.79

GOLD is taking new lows. EURO and Indexes are now trying upside.

DOW 13.051 support held. No one at CNBC could understand if the jobless claims numbers were good or bad. Markets hardly moved. DOW is now trying to get an uptrend to test first resistance point at 13.110. All indexes have identical patterns.

The EURO will fall further but is first testing the upside. 1.3189 on 2 hour close is first resistance.

GOLD has broken all supports for now and takes new lows below important resistance points 1.634 in dollar and 1.242 in euro.

US initial jobless claims at CET 13.30 will certainly affect the markets. Right now 2 hours trends down all over the board. Daily trend could turn down later today or on Friday. Technical situation makes it possible to rally very high on positive job numbers.

DOW support at 13.051 and 12.991. Now trading 13.065

SP500 last to fall but now new 5 days low at 1.395

DAX and SWED sharp drops continues

FTSE sharp drop on opening. Last support 5.853 on 2 hour close.

DOW falls sharply in Europe. Now at 13.084

GOLD now close to a severe drop. Last support in dollar 1.634 and in euro 1.242.

DOW 2 hour trend is now down. Support at 13.144.7 and 13.119.7

Worry About Chinese Demand Drives US Stocks Lower

This article gives an easy to read broad outlook of fundamentals aimed at the US markets.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-futures-fall-signals-china-15960018#.T2msYhGPWBU 

FTSE100 is the weakest index in Europe among the big markets. and could soon get the uptrend stopped without getting above 2011 high.

FTSE100, 2000 - 2012 monthly chart. The 2007 all time high is the top in the middle. From the following bottom in 2009 we have so far only got 4 waves. The fifth wave must get above 2011 top otherwise it will only be a correction of the fall 2007 - 2009. And FTSE already have problems in the weekly chart to show enough strength to go higher. Yes the weekly trend is still up but this index could within the next few weeks start moving sideways and down. My advice is to watch this index closely for an eventual  trend change.

DOW closed Tuesday at 13.165.7. Asia and first hour trading in Europe have so far a high at 13.224.7. Now trading 13.216. Two hour trend is sideways with no clear direction. . DAX, FTSE and SWED have the same chart pattern. Waiting for trend now.

GOLD in Euro has broken 8 month long triangle on downside. First bearish sign for months.

DAX, FTSE and SWED 2 hour trends down. DAX support by 8 day MA holding so far. FTSE and SWED has broken below 8 days rising MA's.

DOW 2 hour trend down. Support at 13.163.8, 13.150.4 and 13.141 which is the rising 8 days MA.

DOW short covering rally started just after my last blog stopping the 2 hour sell signal. The trend is now sideways..

DOW has worked for seven hours to change the one hour downtrend since Europe opened and finally it seems that the upside trial may be over. I expect now a test of today's low at 13.188.6 before US close and a two hour trend sell signal at CET 17.00. However a powerful intervention could always happen in the US to push up for a short covering rally.

DOW got a sell signal on the one hour chart at opening in Europe. The more important 2 hour trend might get a sell signal as well later. Dow now at 13.189. First support at 13.184.5.. Daily and Weekly trends are up.

IMPORTANT MESSAGE. The DOW's big picture until now.

DOW weekly from 2007 until now. The bull market started in March 2009 at 6.655 and made the first wave up to 11.200 in April 2010  see number 1 on the chart. The wave lasted 13 months. Then a correction wave down to 9.680 in June 2010, number 2. The third wave on upside to 12.810 in April 2011 number 3 took 10 months. The fourth wave correction took the index down to 10.765 in September 2011, number 4. From here started the fifth and final wave on upside reaching 13.233 on March 16, 2012. This wave have now lasted 6 months.
The all time high in 2007 is at 14.093 only 860 higher than last Fridays close. Since the current wave is the last before the big trend turns down I am now concentrating to find the final top in this bull market and write less about daily movements.
No one knows now when it will come or what the top will be. There are forecasts made with different models and instruments. Eisenstadt for instance think DOW will be traded at 14.360 in August, and SP500 in 1.520 area about 8.4 percent higher from now.
The big question is do I want to invest money in stocks now or is the final move up too risky that I instead should be prepared to sell my investment.

DOW break Fridays trading range on up side in Asia to a high of 13.029. Test of 2012 high at 13.053.2 is possible.

DOW is moving little in Europe. Trading range for a breakout on upside is 12.976 and on downside 12.863. Dow is moving around Fridays close at 12.926

DOW 2 hour trend is down now at 12.885. Support on 2 hour close at 12.880.2 must hold to avoid bigger drop

DOW got first daily trend sell signal Monday since November 2011.

The daily 8 MA is falling and has crossed the 21 days MA. It happened on Asia opening and can be changed but it is a clear warning signal that the DOW now might have seen its high. The weekly technical picture shows that DOW has lost upside momentum. This is a warning signal so far.

All indexes holding above Tuesdays close in the US. Short term trends give mixed signals. Awaiting US markets trading to give information for further trend

DOW takes a new 12 day low at 12.877

All indexes fall in Europe

SP500 takes a 5 day low at 1.354. DAX a 6 day low at 6.758 and SWED a 13 day low at 1.075.

FTSE opened with a gap at 5.864 which should be closed. The index has support at the rising 34 day MA and a rally up to 5.909 will still keep the downtrend in place

DOW daily trend sideways to down. Tested intraday low yesterday at 12.879 which held. Second test could come today.

FTSE daily trend now down

FTSE daily trend is now sideways to down. Watch up

FTSE is the most vulnerable among the big European indexes for a downside move.   Unless the index makes a powerful rally to close in the top range or continues down a daily chart sell signal might get in place tomorrow or tonight. 

DOW 2 hour trend still down but very small movements so far.

Since the DOW hourly trends are down it is important to know the support points.
1. 12.908.9
2. 12.897.7
Intraday low 12.879.
US players will soon enter the markets.

DOW has made a new closing low 2 hour trend at 12.918.2 in the sideways trend. Now trying to get back above.

DOW 2 hour close trend is down but well within he sideways trend.

DOW 2 hr close trend updated until now. Small movements in Asia and at European opening. However the daily and weekly up trends seem to lose momentum and this week I expect DOW to show in what direction it will break out.

European indexes open with gaps on downside and 2 hour trends down.

DOW 2 hour closes chart from Feb 16 updated with comments

Day number nine, March 2,  since the DOW 2 hour chart close hit the top line at 13.026.  The bottom line is at the low 12.921.This sideways trend seems to continue and there is not very much to write about until a break out on up or downside seems to occur. The curve in the chart is a 8 close moving average which points in the current direction of the trend.

The last uptrend is the first that has not risen  the whole way up to the top before turning down. Now trading at 12.968.

EU argues over balance between austerity, growth

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/01/us-eurozone-idUSTRE82015720120301?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

DOW very long picture. What it looks like since 1998.

Here is the monthly chart since 1998. The all time high 2007 is 13.921. The low 2009 is 7.066. The high 2011 is 12.811 and the low 10.913. The close Feb 29, 2012 is at 12.953.

Currently all trends are up.

DOW closed Wednesday at 12.952. Just before Europe opening the index is trading at 12.927. The support point is at 12.921. Seems like we could have another rally up to the top area during the day or break below the support point.