Today is the last day of the month. The monthly close is of importance for the long term trend now and then. Today it is very important as I have explained last week.
There are three groups of indexes with different immediate outlook just now.
1) Italian MIB, French CAC, Spanish IBEX and SWED. These all indexes are in a very strong technical bear market. The monthly 8 MA is down but it has also crossed the 21 MA which also is down.
2) English FTSE and German DAX. The 8 month MA:s are also down in a very steep slope and the rising 21 MA:s are turning side ways and might get crossed within two months time.
3) US DOW and US SP500 has a slightly fallen 8 month MA. And the trading is occurring just around the 8 MA. A rally in these two indexes to a high close could put a stop for the MA to fall. To succeed DOW must close at CET 21:00 above 12.322.5 and the closing number for SP500 is 1.325.35. It is only close to four hours left and so far the 2 hr down trends have a strong grip of these indexes. I can not see that none of them will manage.
The daily and weekly trend are strongly up and I do not expect a drop below 11.910 for the Dow. The weekly uptrend is so strong that I expect at present the whole Month of November not to get below 11.505. I think this rally from October 4 need about 5 -7 weeks from now to turn down. During this period there might be many attacks on the upside and downside.
My guess right now is that the serious break on downside - I believe that the US indexes will not be able to change the the monthly trend on upside during November - the third wave on the downside will not start before mid December. But I hope to pinpoint that moment a short while before it happens.
There are three groups of indexes with different immediate outlook just now.
1) Italian MIB, French CAC, Spanish IBEX and SWED. These all indexes are in a very strong technical bear market. The monthly 8 MA is down but it has also crossed the 21 MA which also is down.
2) English FTSE and German DAX. The 8 month MA:s are also down in a very steep slope and the rising 21 MA:s are turning side ways and might get crossed within two months time.
3) US DOW and US SP500 has a slightly fallen 8 month MA. And the trading is occurring just around the 8 MA. A rally in these two indexes to a high close could put a stop for the MA to fall. To succeed DOW must close at CET 21:00 above 12.322.5 and the closing number for SP500 is 1.325.35. It is only close to four hours left and so far the 2 hr down trends have a strong grip of these indexes. I can not see that none of them will manage.
The daily and weekly trend are strongly up and I do not expect a drop below 11.910 for the Dow. The weekly uptrend is so strong that I expect at present the whole Month of November not to get below 11.505. I think this rally from October 4 need about 5 -7 weeks from now to turn down. During this period there might be many attacks on the upside and downside.
My guess right now is that the serious break on downside - I believe that the US indexes will not be able to change the the monthly trend on upside during November - the third wave on the downside will not start before mid December. But I hope to pinpoint that moment a short while before it happens.
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