A continuing bear market and the start of next serious drop could now be felt.

Today is the last day of the month. The monthly close is of importance for the long term trend now and then. Today it is very important as I have explained last week.

There are three groups of indexes with different immediate outlook just now.

1) Italian MIB, French CAC, Spanish IBEX and SWED. These all indexes are in a very strong technical bear market. The monthly 8 MA is down but it has also crossed the 21 MA which also is down.

2) English FTSE and German DAX. The 8 month MA:s are also down in a very steep slope and the rising 21 MA:s are turning side ways and might get crossed within two months time.

3) US DOW and US SP500 has a slightly fallen 8 month MA. And the trading is occurring just around the 8 MA. A rally in these two indexes to a high close could put a stop for the MA to fall.  To succeed DOW must close at CET 21:00 above 12.322.5 and the closing number for SP500 is 1.325.35. It is only close to four hours left and so far the 2 hr down trends have a strong grip of these indexes. I can not see that none of them will manage.

The daily and weekly trend are strongly up and I do not expect a drop below 11.910 for the Dow. The weekly uptrend is so strong that I expect at present the whole Month of November not to get below 11.505. I think this rally from October 4 need about 5 -7 weeks from now to turn down. During this period there might be many attacks on the upside and downside.

My guess right now is that the serious break on downside - I believe that the US indexes will not be able to change the the monthly trend on upside during November -  the third wave on the downside will not start before mid December. But I hope to pinpoint that moment a short while before it happens.

Why France – Not Greece or Italy – Will Decide the Fate of the Euro France’s own economic problems will soon make it unable to help bail out weaker European countries. When that happens, the Euro game is up Read more: http://moneyland.time.com/2011/10/31/why-france-is-the-weak-link-of-the-european-economic-union

Friday trading in the Dow has been within 86 points for 16 hours, and four is left.

The Dow has traded between 12.149 - 12.235, which is only 86 points for 16 hours and the aim in the US seems to be to test Thursdays top at 12.284.

Dax has an intraday  daily doubletop at 6.433, now slowly moving sideways in the 6.340 area.

FTSE has a very strong resistance at 5.762 which was tested Thursday. Today the trend is down to the 5.685 area.

EURUSD is moving in a small range below yesterdays close.

I do not expect any big news so I will watch the trend now and then.

The big thing is Mondays close. Bull market or not.

IMPORTANT MESSAGE

The rally that started October 4 has not changed any index status of bear market. Three indexes have a chance to do that if they get a monthly close next Monday above certain numbers AND DO NOT CLOSE BELOW THOSE POINTS LATER ON A MONTHLY BASIS UNTIL SPRING NEXT YEAR. Here are the indexes and what they must close above Monday.

DOW        12.322.5

SP500        1.325.35

FTSE          5.924.2

All other indexes will still be in a bear market because they cannot get out of that status. If DOW, SP500 and FTSE do not close above these numbers OR CANNOT GET A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE THEM IN NOVEMBER the likelihood is that the trend will  turn around and test October 4 low again.

It is all about the 8 months moving average. If this average will continue to point down the bear market is in place and any attempt to get above it is only temporary. If the indexes can close over the numbers the moving average will rise at least for the moment.

There is currently only one market that is in a very strong bull market and that is Gold.

DOW closed at 12.215.5 after heavy profit taking

DOW next main resistance is at 12.382.9

Dow has now reached my target area of 12.235. Some profit taking could soon happen

DOW 5 min chart seems like correction. Support by 21 MA so far.

DOW 5 min chart trend down

SP500 has taken out critical point 1.268.45. Next resistance 1.316.1

SWED closing in on critical point at 1.053.68. Today's close 1.028.2

IBEX takes strong weekly resistance point 9.243.1 closing the day at 9.248.1. Next resistance is 9.489.1

FTSE has taken critical point, next resistance 5.761.75

DOW break above 12.151.2 signals move to 12.235 area

DOW will soon test today's hi at 12.151.2

EURUSD now above critical point, now trying to take last important weekly resistance at 1.4153

DOW 5 min chart trend now up

DOWs trend is down 5 min chart

DOW takes new low out of channel

DOW drops out of channel again

DOW back in five minute channel, but first warning it was

DOW got sell signal on five minutes chart.

DOW holding up fine in five minutes newly established parallel channel. Turnover seems to slow but momentum seems OK again.

DOW new high at 12.056,7 but trend losing momentum.

EURUSD trend is still up

EURUSD Hi so far 1.4037 which is below critical point at 1.4115. Must take critical point to show that the euro is back in my opinion.

EURO GOVT-Bunds slide, periphery perks up on rescue plan

This is from Reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/27/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL5E7LR2DM20111027

The DOW's current waves.

The Dow uptrend that started Oct 18 at 11.297 is a five wave trend. The fifth wave started Oct 25 at 20:00 at 11.706. The third mini trend, in this fifth wave, started Oct 26 at 16:00 at 11.758 and is still going on, now at 12.030.

The numbers and times come from my 2 hr chart closes.

The SKY NEWS page is being updated the whole day.

Thank you Sky News:

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16097089

All European indexes have started with big gaps on upside.

FTSE has hit its critical point at 5.685.71 but backed immediately. A second test did not manage either. The index might continue to get above this point.

Dow has taken a new high just a few points more at 12.048.2 but fell back immediately. The trend is up but there are sellers in the markets now. 

Buy on the rumor and sell on the news, is that what we will see now?

Since Asia opened the flood of positive rumors from Europe has been pouring in. And the sign up by the Euro zone leaders confirmed the deal. Dow reached a high of 12.044.7.

The resistance levels for closes on the 4 hr chart are 12.003,5, 12.129 and 12.146.3. Next 4 hr close comes at CET 10:00.

From now on the scrutiny starts of the Europe deal and the news flow from all over the world will sipper in the rest of this week. 

EU leaders agree on Euro zone Rescue Plan.

Here is the latest story from Sky News:

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16097089

DOW continues uptrend when Europe opens.

Dow has taken all main resistance points and got above 61.8 % of the total downtrend at 11.959. There are many resistance points left and the first is 12.146.3. 

DOW closes Wednesday at 11.866. Asia continues uptrend to a current high of 12.029.

Debt deal won’t stop euro-zone recession Commentary: Europe’s deleveraging looks distinctly Japanese

Here is Market Watch take on the European decisions:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/debt-deal-wont-stop-euro-zone-recession-2011-10-25?siteid=nwham

Key Euro Debt Summit Begins in Brussels.

Here is the latest story from Sky News:

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16096188

End of manipulation, market back to normal again.

After having been unable to drive the manipulated DOW trend higher than the resistance at 11.846.3 on close, 2hr chart, which I mentioned in my last blog, the real market forces took over and pushed the Dow back to the real trend. This is part of my proof that a manipulated trend always come back to normal. But the longer it goes on the steeper and quicker the fall will be. Now we are back to the real trend and the manipulators are gone. The trend will from now been driven only by the market forces, except eventually for very small trends, one or five minutes.

What happened from CET 02:00 today in Asia and Europe until 15:00 with the Dow, I will give you my take on now. The sudden unexpected drop during Tuesdays US session did take even the manipulator by surprise. I said it would go down to the 11.640 area but it only came to 11.680 points. Asia and Europe should do that. However the manipulators got into the DOW futures when Asia opened and stopped any selling pressure, and put the Dow in a false uptrend. That uptrend finished with a strong and quick rally aimed at take out the last short positions and sells the top by the manipulators. Yes the manipulators are gone but now we have to deal with the real professionals computers the rest of the day because there might be sort of surprice when European Union presents its program to save the euro.

DOW uptrend looks manipulated since CET 02:00 and it still is.

The steady uptrend is Asia seems manipulated. Why? Today is the most important day economicly since the European Euro zone member have said that they will present a complete plan to stop the current crisis.
In the details I think the resolution will be complicated and the journalists most likely need a day or more to understand everything and see the consequences. Market will react on the big things when the resolution comes. Anyway the market without a strong upward trend could not technically fall abruptly.

I will later in detail explain how you can manipulate a whole stock markets trend. It may be published in my second blog, http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/

Now to the current uptrend. There is a last resistance point to overcome in the 2 hr chart, 11.846.3. If that should be broken a test on 11.940 top might occur.

The uptrend is steady.

Asia rally trend still up no clear resistance for stop. Might continue higher. I am back CET 14:00.

Asia rally high so far 11.774.4. Falling 30 min chart 21 MA holding so far currently at 11.771.5. Germany opens at CET 08:00 that is 1 hour and 20 minutes.

DOW daily bar Tuesday ended in a clear key-reversal which strongly indicates that the up trend since October 4, ended at a high of 11.940,8. and the 2 hr trend is down currently at 11.753

Dow broke 11.744,3 from below and Hi in Asia so far 11.758.9

Asia has tested DOW important resistance 11.744.3 for 15 minutes but without success so far.

DOW closed at 11.705.9 after proit taking the last two minutes. The down trend to at first the 11.640 will continue in Asia and Europe.

Drop with target 11.640 area just started

A one minute chart close below 11.744.3 could send Dow to 11.640 as the next big move. Either it will happen in New York before close or in Asia or Europe tomorrow.

1 hr chart close below 11.783.5 is crucial for downtrend

DOW breaking very important support 11.782,9 on 15 min chart on close at 11.766.5. Go short now, stop at 11.815

Pessimism on Euro Deal as Ministers Cancel Meeting

Important  Article in New York Times, Click below

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/business/global/european-finance-ministers-call-off-pre-summit-meeting.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

No cross yet between 8 and 21 MA on 2 hr chart. Attack can come before 20:00 on 11.871.8, very important to repel short trend there.

DOW. A close on 15 min chart below 11.782,9 will confirm downtrend will not be reversed.

DOWs trend is now down. Only manipulation can stop this trend.

8 MA repelled the attack easily. DOW moving down now at 11.775 seems to fall further

DOW testing upside 2hr, 8MA at 11.863,2. Ought to hold. It feels like a trend change down could start before US close at CET 22.00

Dow has got a Double Top at 11.940 and is now falling.

This double top is of utmost importance. The critical point, see last blog, is 11.942.5. Yesterdays top was 11.940.3 and today's was 11.940.8. Now the 2hr 8MA has turned down and there is a down trend on the 2 hr chart. Support at 11.839 is broken and last support for a bigger drop lies at 11.801,4.

However the 21 MA is still rising  against the falling 8 MA but there is no cross for several hours. But I tell the traders to sell long positions and wait until the cross seems to cross, go short. Be aware of the manipulators because they see these points as well.

CET 11:25, All trends are up, small movements

DOW range in Asia and Europe so far has been 11.842- 11.904. All trends are up except the monthly trends which are down.
All news about the European meeting on Wednesday are priced in. The markets have accepted all news so far. It feels like the lull before the storm but I hope I am wrong in that regard.

During this lull the small trends are soon going sideways and a break will most certainly occur up or down within the next few days.

If something special happens I will be back.

Here is a list of the critical resistance points for the indexes I follow.

The point are taken from the weekly charts. Only by getting above these points there might be a threat to the bear market. They are all below 61,8 % of the total drop from the High to the Low the last couple of months. I they do not take out these points the ongoing uptrend is just a rally which in due time will turn down and test the lows again. Even if they are taken out I will tell how the big status of that index is.

DOW          11.942.5        11.940  (High so far)
SP500           1.268.45        1.256
FTSE            5.685.71        5.573
DAX             6.448.88        6.084
SWED          1.053.68           984
IBEX            9.489.5          9.104
MIB            18.482.7        16.638
CAC            3.722.85        3.266

EURUSD     1.4115           1.3956

I will refer to these points as the critical point.

Dow futures close at 11.908,8 which is above critical resistance at 11.873

The EURUSD has been trading up all day but not reached target at 1.3975. Now trend is down.

SP500, FTSE and DAX turn down as well without taking critical resistance points.

SP500 needed a close above 1.260 to show strength but after two attempts the index gave up. FTSE was only two points below it critical target before it fell back also after two trials. Finally DAX was only one point from its important target when it started to fall.

Only the Dow has taken its target at 11.893 intraday. I am now looking for the closing numbers.

DOW has probably reached it high for the session. Italian government in trouble.

DOW got a key reversal just on the 15 min chart. Indicating that the high has been seen at 11.940, which also is a double top.  The 21 MA has been crossed and it is 25 min to go.

Berlusconi has got trouble to save more. See NYT article by clicking below.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/world/europe/emergency-meeting-on-italys-finances.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

DOW important resistance point 11.893 (2)

It is not enough to penetrate this point intraday. For the DOW to show strength there must be a daily close above this point. 11.897 has been reached as a new daily high but seller forced the index down to the 11.870 area quickly. 

DOW slowly moving up again, target 11.893

Today's range for the DOW has been small, 11.733-11.893. The high 11.893 is technically a very important resistance point on the daily chart, 11.892,9 to be exact.
The next important resistance point is from the weekly chart at 11.943. Finally a very important chart point is 11.959 which is 61,8 % of the total drop from high to low the last several months.

There are other resistance points at the 2 hr chart but I leave them for now. The weekly, daily and 2 hr trends are up. The one hour downtrend has been broken on upside. However the weekly and daily chart is very much above their 8 MA:s.

Right now a second attack is at important 11.893 again.

Dow now back to Friday close at 11.807.

Dow opened above Friday close in the US and moved up to a daily high of 11.893. The 2 hr chart has lost its strength and it looks like the next move will be on downside. The one hour chart have now got a falling 8 MA which means trend down. Support might come in at the rising 21 MA now at 11.786.

The most important trading for many years starts at CET 09:00 in Europe.

It is now less than two hours left before the European stock markets open. The journalists had said what they think in papers all over the world and the papers have different takes on what will happen now.
The start of three days trading before we will find out if Europe can come up with a final decision how to solve the euro crisis.
There are so many difficult questions which need answers next Wednesday. This might be the most important trading sessions for many years for Europe. The US can only keep the Dow steady in an uptrend and thereby indirectly hope that the European indexes will follow,  and watch  if a new Lehman crisis will come or not.

If you are interested in my view of the very big economic situation.

You are welcome to read my second blog about the big picture at:
http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/

Could really Europe solve all problems by Wednesday?

Europe leaders tout progress on debt crisis plan

Final agreement on package of measures expected Wednesday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-leaders-tout-progress-on-debt-crisis-plan-2011-10-23?siteid=rss&rss=1

The above story was published in Market Watch one hour 

ago. Having read several European news papers, to me it

looks very difficult to get a final agreement that would be 

accepted by the markets.

I expect Monday to Wednesday to be the most critical days

in the Euro-crisis and the complexity of the negotiations 


could could make the markets very volatile. Anything might


happen.

My advice is to stay away from the markets and wait for

Wednesday outcome.

Dow takes new 11 weeks high in strong uptrend.

DOW current up trend is strong so far but there are many resistance points to take out from current area starting with 11.787 and 11.837.

I expect this uptrend to continue until the US session close CET 22.00.

My view of the situation will be posted latest Monday.

Have a nice weekend

Plan to tackle the Euro-zone debt crisis will be presented Sunday

Here is Market Watch Friday morning:

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — European stocks rose early Friday, with banks recovering from the previous session’s steep losses, buoyed by hopes that a plan to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis will be presented soon.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index XX:SXXP +0.68%  rose 0.8% to 234.9 in mid-morning trading.

Among banks, UniCredit SpA IT:UCG +3.13%  rallied 5% in Milan, BNP Paribas SAFR:BNP +3.01%  rose 2.9% in Paris and Commerzbank AG DE:CBK +2.06%  climbed 3.2% in Frankfurt.

Stocks have been on a wild ride this week as optimism over a possible solution to the debt crisis receded and mounted on various media reports.

Click to Play

Merkel races to put EU deal together

Matthew Karnitschnig joins Mean Street to discuss German Chancellor Angela Merkel's efforts to broker an agreement among EU leaders over plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis.

European markets closed sharply lower Thursday following reports that the European Union summit set for Sunday may be delayed — reports which were subsequently denied. Sentiment was buoyed Friday after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a joint statement late Thursday saying they will meet Saturday night in Brussels to prepare for the Sunday summit of European leaders. They said they planned to provide a response to the debt crisis, but warned that an agreement may not be reached on Sunday but rather at a second summit to be held no later than Wednesday.

“Upcoming policy news flow should hopefully provide some welcome clarity on the medium-term outlook for European stocks,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note. “With uncertainty high, we suspect positioning will be neutral into this weekend.”

Criticism of Spain's Central Bank Grows Along With Chance of Recession

Here is the story from NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/business/global/criticism-of-spains-central-bank-grows-along-with-chance-of-recession.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Did You read my blog June 6, and followed it. Did you follow my advice to sell. Please send me a note for statistics.

Here it is again:

06/06/2011

First warning of a possible dangerous fall in the stock markets

The International Stock market indices are topping out.

The bull market that started in April 2009 might have reached its peak. The side ways trend the last several months seems to break on downside. The Spanish IBEX 35 and the English FTSE 100 are very close to a long term sell signals. The Dow Jones Industrial index and Standard & Poors 500 index have got a weekly key reversal to the downside in the weekly chart pointing to the possibility of a downward trend.

What now is happening could lead to a new bear market quite fast.

This blog will follow the markets at least until we know for sure what will happen

DOW closed at 11.534 Thursday.

The DOW has now tried 7 days to reach the 11.700 area which is the top area since Sept 9. The current uptrend, that started with the intervention at 10.399.1  and so far has topped 11.724.9, looks to me now
as it has lost momentum and that the trend within a few days will be down. Only more intervention against the trend will change the chart. The daily trend is still up which adds to my hopes for a new exiting technical trading session in NY tomorrow Friday.

Bulls computers worked very much better than eventual bears computers. They turned the small trends to their favor whatever the bulls tried. Now 8 minutes left.

DOW is fighting with 11.501.4 again and there is 26 min left

DOW unable to take new intraday high and retreats, now at 11.535

DOW got very strong support at 11.390, turned and rushed up to test today's high11.582.5

Wonder if they play with tax payers money. You must have lost a lot today. Now below critical point at 11.401,5 again. Group trying on upside for retake but well se how it goes.

Lost my bet with three minutes, the group has good computer software and excellent programming.

Dow fight continues . Group is in the lead right now.

DOW is slowly forced up. If 11.503 is taken with a one hour chart close the group is the winner tonight, my bet is that they will not manage.
The intraday broken critical point might hold session out, but will be under attack again tomorrow in Europe I think.

Here are the critical point for USA and Europe

DOW critical at 11.401.5
FTSE critical at   5.346.0
DAX  critical at   5.746.0

These points will come under hard pressure in the US tonight. Technically they will break. If special group is manipulating the market the outcome is open. 

Critical point 11.401.5 retaken but fight goes on

CRITICAL POINT BROKEN SECOND TIME ONE MINUTE CLOSE

Dow fighting hard to hold crucial resistance point 11.401,5. One minut chart close broken point once

EUROPE NOW CLOSED, DOW STILL ON DOWN PATH

DOW works hard to keep falling. If special group is involved less chance to manage. Must try to hold up until Europe close in 37 minutes.

DOW critical resistance point at 11.401.5

DOW leads indexes now. DOW target could be 11.298

All three indexes seems to have broken on downside now

DAX moving down DOW on the verge to follow

DOW, FTSE and DAX same picture.

European two biggest indexes Britain FTSE 100 and Germany DAX 30 are moving identical to the DOW.

Any move will trigger the same move to the other two. Europe and USA is in perfect balance awaiting triggering news.

They are all moving in identical triangles. Can only wait and see right now.

DOW resistance still holding.

The 8 day rising MA at 11.501 still holding during nine hours of attack in Asia and Europe. Daily range so far very small Hi 11.538 and Lo 11.448,5. The possibility of a move on upside increases by the hour.

Dow closes Down Wednesday at 11.504

Short trends are now down. Support from rising 8 days MA at around today's close still holding. 2 hr trend down but support around 21 rising MA at 11.500.  My impression now is that the downtrend which just started will manage tomorrow to push through the two supports. Target is 11.297 but can go much lower.

Tomorrow will be a n interesting day after today's rest.

Dow small movements in Asia and Europe CET 13:45

All trends are up so far. Hi today has been 11.631 and Lo 11.521. Awaiting US trading.

The manipulation

Below are two charts, 2 hr of the same length. One is the Dow and the closing manipulated rally at the right end of the chart. The other chart is EURUSD the biggest turnover item in the world with hardly no possibilities to manipulate now. Do you see the difference I see? Dow is suddenly from a too low position going straight up while EURUSD which is in the same trend slowly moves sideways. This is only one of my grounds to suspect that the Dow was manipulated Tuesday.

This is the Dow trend since October 4

This is the EURUSD trend since October 4

Manipulation group closes the DOW Tuesday at 11.567

The group has done nothing illegal just followed orders to keep the up trend in place and the profit they make is theirs. Everybody is happy.

The only problem they make is for us the analysts and of course for the traders who take the wrong positions. They seem at the first glance to have been active in the Dow futures market since trading started Monday CET 02:00 but especially since Tuesday opening in Asia with a gap below the key-reversal low. The risk was big for a sharp drop and the futures were kept in check by the group until 15:30 when Wall Street opened the trading. Then Dow then suddenly shot up without fundamental reasons and the groups buying was extremely powerful  the whole session until their profit taking started at 20:05 and ended 20:50. In five hours the DOW rose more than 300 points.

Here is another example how difficult it is to make short forecasts for the Dow. Anyway this action was in the cards and the rally topped at 11.654 at 20:10 and then a last buy injection at 20:40 lasting three minutes before the group slowed down the intervention.

So the new - for some a bit unexpected - trading session gave us a 10 day uptrend. The group might have missed to close the Dow above 11.591 which is at 61,8 percent of the key reversal-bar. However with these guys there will be no problem to fix that tomorrow if Asia and Europe want something else.

There is however a bigger problem long term with manipulation. If the market is not allowed to move the trend down when need be, Natures Law will make the drop much worse when the trend cannot be stopped. Dow was not allowed to continue its wash out trend in 2009 because of massive support and cash injections to the banks, which was excellent short term but the current downtrend will not be changed to a new bull market because today there is no money left to stop the washout which is the real trend the way I see it. And it will be much worse because of the false uptrend 2009 - 2011. More about this later in this blog and in my new blog,  What do I reflect upon now. http://olle-ahlmark.blogspot.com/

There are now only two hours until a new trading day starts in Asia.

China is heading into an economic storm, Marketwatch

By Sue Chang, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — China is heading into an economic storm, and the much-feared hard-landing of the world’s second-largest economy has already started, warned celebrated hedge-fund manager and China-bear Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates on Monday.

“The numbers are falling faster than we thought,” said Chanos during an exclusive interview with MarketWatch on the sidelines of the 7th Annual New York Value Investing Congress.

Click to Play

Tips for an extended bear market

History shows that periods of high returns in the market are followed by extended periods of lower returns, says Capital Guardian Wealth Management's Tony Montanari.

“Real estate sales in September and October, which are peak months, fell 40%-60% on-year,” he said.

Chanos also pointed out that Chinese financial and real-estate stocks are down 30% from their peak, while cement and steel prices are declining.

“People are buying into the idea of perpetual growth,” Chanos said. “But they have to ask, ‘Are you really growing?’”

Chanos stressed that investors should understand that there is no bailout without a cost.

“The only way the Chinese government can continue to bail out everyone is to print more money, which will lead to inflation. But people are depositing money [in banks] at below inflation,” the fund manager said.

Chanos had already suggested back in May that there were clear signs of excess supply in China’s commercial real-estate sector.

About 14% of office space in Beijing and 9% in Shanghai was vacant, according to data he cited at the time.

“Western investors must remember that Chinese consumers are not the next big hope,” he said.

1,000 times worse than Dubai

Chanos has consistently said China’s bust will be a thousand times worse than Dubai.

“It’s very hard to let air out of a property bubble without collateral damage,” he said.

Chanos also expressed concerns about the country’s banking sector.

The Chinese economy is adding $2 trillion of new debt every year, and half of that is problematic from day one, he said.

And since only 50% of the problematic debt is recoverable, about $500 billion, or 10% of gross domestic product, is bad debt, he said.

Dow moving in small and tight range before the next main move.

There is on the important 2 hour chart a new closing low at 11.322 which is below all support points for a further drop for the Dow. That close came at CET 10.00. The 12:00 close came in at 11.346,5 which was a test of a previous close. Dow could not get above that resistance. Now awaiting the 14:00 close the trend is above the low close at 11.322 but below the 11.346.5 close. I think that a close below  the 11.322 might start a further drop.
There is a chance of a rally up and test the key-reversal bar from yesterday but the technical picture right now tells me that the 11.322 close will not hold very long for now.  

DOW has broken last resistance on close but right now it is trying to retake the 11.336 closing point. Next close will come at 12:00 in the 2 hr chart.

Dow closes 2 hr chart at 11.322

Dow very close to take new low 10 min after Europe open

Asia has traded the Dow sideways after a gap on downside. Europe started trying to push the index under the last top support level. When I write this, just now the break on downside is clear and the Dow is falling now at 11.306. The main picture on 2 hr chart very bearish.

The breaking point was 11.330,5. Low now 11.306 and a rally is now going on to test if 11.330, 5 is really broken. Watching 5 min chart closes. The rally seem to reach only 11.319 and now the low at 11.306 is being tested again. A break below this level and the Dow is in a clear bear trend. Now a break down below 11.306 and a five minute close at 11.304,5.. The final confirmation will come if the 2 hr chart at 10:00
closes below 11.336.
Dow is now testing the 11.319 rally top again. Waiting for the 2 hr close now. Meanwhile the index is trying to build a bottom formation on 5 minute chart to rally up to the 11.330,5 level. 19 minutes to go before 2 hr close.

Germany lowers expectations for EU summit

I recommend this article from NY Times today.



http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/business/global/germany-lowers-expectations-for-eu-summit.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Dow futures makes a key reversal Monday

Dow futures Monday had a HI at 11.724 and a LOW at 11.377 with a CLOSE below the bottom 11.422 for Last Friday, at 11.402. A higher hi and a lower low than the trading day before plus a close below the bottom of the day before becomes a key-reversal. That means a very strong sign that the uptrend is over and the trend will soon go down.The day after a key reversal there  can be a test on upside and if that test gets below 61,8 % of the key reversal bar the downtrend is very very often confirmed. Many professionals will now look for Tuesdays eventual test on upside and sell the rally if it not reaches above 61,8 %.

Sometimes there is no test on upside but a continued downtrend directly.

German DAX and France CAC also got key-reversals.

The Wall street trading did not result in a key-reversal for the Dow.

Asia starts as usual at CET 02:00 and Europe at 09:00  trading Dow futures.

The big picture for the Dow in my view looks like this.

Dow got a new 2 hr chart closing high at 11.709 and a new 11 week intraday high at 11.724 in Europe Monday. The sell off started at CET 11:08 and the low so far is at 11.473.

Dow has pushed up through the falling 21 week MA with 50 points before the sell off started. The 2 hr chart uptrend is still in place, although the 8 MA is down, because it will take time to cross the 21 and 34 MA:s. My feeling just now - which of course can be wrong - is that the uptrend bottom channel and the 55 MA at around 11.470 down to 11.455 will give support. 

The Dow correction that started in Europe might soon stop. Europeans are taking short profits now just before Europe close

Dow tops 11.724 in Europe now at 11.585 just after US open. I hr trend down, 2 hr trend sideways.

Dow closed at the days high Friday at 11.647.

Dow broke last two hours the important last resistance at 11.624 and closed at 11.647. This advancement triggered the run up that started with a gap in Asia 30 min ago.  Asia has so far traded 11.651 to 11.672.

I described this break as an option during Friday trading and it was not confirmed until the Dow closed. I now expect the Dow to reach 11.872 today or later.

Europeans struggle toward debt solution.

Read all about it. G20 good or bad?


http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/business/global/europeans-struggle-toward-debt-solution.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

There will be strong short covering in Europe at European opening CET 09:00 next Monday

The Dow came just shy of a new intraday high at 11.612 Friday. Just 12 points below and we got a closing new high on the 2 hr chart at 11.593. The trend is still up so new tests may occur of the 11.624 intraday high.

These are my alternatives in current trading

The high close in this long uptrend on the 2 hr chart is 11.571. CET 12:00 close came in at 11.554. The trend is up. A run from 11.554 to above intraday high at 11.624 could signal a further uptrend with a target of 11.872 intraday. A 2 hr close above 11.571 signals only the possibility  of a new 2 hr close around 11.732.

If 11.624 is not taken out, a double top could get in place with a downside target of 11.188

Dow moves up. A break above 11.624 very bullish with new target 11.872

Dow now trading at 11.550 in uptrend with possible target of high 11.624. A break above 11.624 points to a quick run up to  to around 11.872.

Stock indexes hardly move after Europe opening

BBC reports CET 08:20 that Spain and big European banks have been downgraded. Se story by clicking below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15301826


G20 will meet Friday to discuss the Euro  zone crisis.

Dow closed at 11.475 Thursday, Europe opens now

Daily trend has very strong strong resistance at 11.230. Moving sideways within Thursdays daily bar. Small movements so far in Asia.

United States has opened trading

Trading just started in New York at Dow 11.462 compared to yesterdays close 11.529. Trading will now be  very intensive until Europe close at 18:30.

The big and small picture for the Dow now.

Only the 2 hr trend is down because the 8 MA has turned down and the Dow has put a bar below the low channel line.

The daily trend is up and has very strong support now at 11.119. A cross on upside will occur  Friday between the both rising MA:s 8 days and 21 days, confirming the daily uptrend.

The weekly trend is up because the 8 week MA is up at 11.157. The falling 21 week MA is down and should stop a further upside move, now at 11.705.

The monthly trend is sideways but the falling 8 MA will stop any trial on upside, now at 12.029.

Dow 2 hr trend is now down

Dow have just broken the seven day uptrend channel on the 2 hr chart and it looks like we are in for a trend change or correction. This 2 hr downtrend can easily change to upside or sideways anytime. 

ASIA opens with a gap drop down to 11.476. Not very good.

See my closing blog yesterday published at CET 22:33 about the key reversal situation. Want to wait and see when Europe has been trading a while if the uptrend is over or not.

Pennsylvania Harrisburg get bankrupt

Read about it, It is not only Greece  that have problems. US states got problem too.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/muni-bankruptcy-filings-like-harrisburgs-are-rare-2011-10-12?siteid=nwhpm

Dow closed up 103 points to 11.519, further uptrend in question.

After today's trading of the Dow futures from CET:02:00 until 20.00 in a strong  bull trend which now have lasted for seven days  this may be it.
The 2 hr chart gives a question mark for further immediate uptrend. From 20:00 DOW took a new high at 11.624 but later fell below the 18:00 bars bottom. It then closed just above the last two hours bottom. To me this is a key reversal which means that 11.624 was the top of the seven day uptrend and that the trend is preparing to go down from here. Want to see Asia and Europe start for confirmation if I am correct in my
current view of the trend.

Dow holding up fine now at 11.514

Next resistance point on 2 hr chart close is 11.533. Then it is only the closing point 11.669 left before it will be 9 week high.

Dow continues the uptrend that started Oct 4.

Only on day close left to new 9 week closing high at 11.611.  Dow now at 11.520.

Dow has taken new high in Europe at 11.484

Dow hesitates to get above 11.478, maybe rallyt was short covering

CET 10:30 Dow breaks on upside

Europe pushes Dow above US yesterdays top moving against 11.520 resistance. 11.476 high so far.

CET 10:20 Europe test US top at 11.443 close at 2 hr chart

If Europe can get above 11.448 we might see a break on upside. Cant tell now which way the break will go.Switching to five minute chart.

Dow closed Tuesday at 11.416 having moved sideways thew whole session.

Dow moved sideways within 80 points Tuesday unable to get above 11.451. Europe will start in one hour. Asia took Dow down to a low of 11,320 with a gap which now have been closed. Now CET 08:10  Dow at 11.382. It seems to me now as if we soon might see a break on downside. The trading  is between falling 8 MA and rising 21 MA on the 2 hr chart. A cross on downside by the 8 MA might be the trigger. If the 8 MA turns on upside instead we will see a test of 10.550 I guess right now.

Europe and Dow holding same trend still up but no new high

Europe ( DAX,FTSE and SWED) mainly same look as Dow. They all move together now. Will therefore refer to Dow knowing the same happens to Europe. Will only talk about the small differences between the indexes.

Trend is still an uptrend holding steady in channels. However the Dow which closed at the high of 11.430.9 on 2 hours chart slowly coming down. Now trading  11.386 in Europe.

During the last 9 weeks the difference between weekly highs and lows has been 600 - 1.000 points. So far this week 233 points have been traded in the weekly bar. This weeks bar has a very strong support from the rising 8 week MA and I expect that curve to stop any sell-off as long as it is rising. Now at 11.147. The Dow might test the 21 week MA for resistance sooner or later, now at 11.701.

So the Dow will move between 11.147 and 11.701 this week. We are now at 11.386. The bottom use to hold very well in situations like this but the 21 MA could be penetrated but the uptrend will definitely stop around the 34 week MA  now at. 11.949.

These MA:s change only once a week. So my outlook is that the Dow will definitely be above 11.147 and below 11.949. There is a strong possibility that the upper limit could be in the 11.701 area.

The current trading this week is between 11.204 and 11.437. We are currently at 11.362. How the Dow will perform the rest of the week I Dont know exactly. But if you got this parameters you will see that this weeks trading is a small blip in the big trend and it is not likely that we will see a big trend change now.

DOW rose 3 percentage point on what can be a real backlash after the Slovakia vote Tuesday

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

U.S. stocks rallied almost 3% Monday as France and Germany pledged to do everything necessary to support Europe's banks, while investors also looked ahead to the unofficial kickoff of third-quarter earnings season. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/11/business/global/eu-delays-high-level-meeting.html


EU delays very important meeting regarding the crisis. SLOVAKIA and Malta might stop Euro fund increase  440 billion euros. Slovakia is expected to vote Tuesday. Dont forget to click NY times website at the top.

Thank you New York Times for your excellent articles.

The delay, announced by the president of the European Council,Herman Van Rompuy, came a day after largely inconclusive talks between the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who promised to act but provided no details.

An agreement to expand the bailout fund for the euro zone, agreed to by leaders in July, requires unanimous approval from member state parliaments. But in Slovakia, which along with Malta are the only ones yet to approve it, the governing coalition on Monday failed to reach a compromise on an endorsement, The Associated Press reported. A vote on the matter in the Slovakian parliament was scheduled for Tuesday.

The failure to reach a deal underlines the extent of political deadlock in Slovakia that could threaten final approval of the euro’s expanded 440 billion euro, or $600 billion, bailout fund. One E.U. official said there was growing concern about the Slovakian vote in Brussels, but also hope that the measure would be approved.

Dow closes Monday at 11.430.9

Resistance at 11.461.6 and the top 11.532.9 goes to Asia and Europe. If top is taken out I expect even stronger uptrend.

11.382 taken out intraday 2 hr chart. Next resistance 11.408.1. Then only top left at 11.532.9

13 minutes to go for Dow resistance to strong at 11.382 so far.

Two hour chart close at CET 16:00 for DOW 11.376.9

11.382 resistance is holding. Close can come in as small double top to send to Asia and Europe.

Now 8 min left. No cheating tonight.

Dow strong, holding trend flawless so far Monday.

All main indexes in Europe and US are in a strong upward trend. No hesitations at all the trend just climbs. Dow will close within a little more than one hour at what seems right now to be 11.374 area. Strong resistance at 11.382.

Always remember that a forecast of a US close could be wrong since their manipulators may step in and change the trend. The United States of America is the only place in the world where you can manipulate a trend and a close, because the authorities do not understand what is going on.

Bank run 4

Market-watch has this sentence in midday report

French-Belgian lender Dexia agrees a rescue deal that includes $122 billion of state guarantees and the nationalization of its Belgian consumer-lending arm.


Olle now. This is a lot of money and only one bank just now. Europeans should notice this. Here is one of the reasons for my call. Discuss with your family now and take out as much cash you are allowed to by your bank and keep it safe at home. If nothing happens you put your money back into your account. But wait at least a month. I will keep you informed.


This is a precaution call to my readers.

Bank runs 3

Angela Merkel is afraid  of bank runs now.


This is taken from the New York Times article today specified in last blog:

Mrs. Merkel, now increasingly concerned about any run on the banking system, told finance ministers and leaders from the World Bank and the I.M.F. last week in Berlin that Germany supported a coordinated bank recapitalization program.

Mrs. Merkel does not want to funnel more taxpayer money to the banks before they try going to the markets to raise capital. But she acknowledged in recent meetings in Berlin with World Bank and I.M.F. officials that Germany would not hold back in bolstering the banks if necessary. Failure to do so, she said, would lead to “vastly higher damage.

Bank runs number 2

You should withdraw as much money that your bank will allow you. Ask for US dollar bills but they are in short supply and will soon be gone from European banks. Than take out your euros as much as you are allowed. This is what I read between lines in New York Times today. I support the specialist fully.

This call is mainly to Eurozon people.

If nothing happens you just put your money back to your account.

History tells this is what you should do now.

Read this important article now and three times and discus  it with your family today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/business/3-countries-agree-on-bailout-of-european-bank.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

Bank runs in Europe seems to start soon

There are clear signals that cash money is taken out in big amounts from bank accounts. Specialists expect bank runs to start soon.

In this blog I have warned for this outcome many times. Now we seems to be closer than ever. Take out cash money otherwise you have to stand in long lines. Do not wait now.

CET:11:15. All indexes main trends still up in slow European trading.

Not very much has happened since Oct 6. All markets are moving slowly in the uptrend so far. I do not expect any change for the next few hours.

Will be back if trends looks to change

Dow Falls 1,000, Then Rebounds, Shaking Market By GRAHAM BOWLEY; Eric Dash, Christine Hauser, Nelson D. Schwartz, Jackie Calmes and Binyamin Appelbaum contributed reporting. Published: May 7, 2010

This was may 2010. Read and compare what the cheaters were involved in - Unbelievable

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9907E4DE1E31F934A35756C0A9669D8B63&&scp=1&sq=dow%20falls%201,000,%20then%20rebounds,%20shaking%20market&st=cse

Why the American authorities dont do anything is a mystery. It is difficult to push the thoughts away that they are involved themselves. This story have just started Mr President and some of your countrymen are involved. The reputation of the United States of America could be questioned. For the sake of Asia and Europe, say something.

Regulators react on manipulations but the manipulators can take it easy because the dog is barking at the wrong tree.

NY times reported that manipulations is common in the US and that the cheaters is far ahead of the investigators regarding technology. Having read today's article - see it by clicking below - you will see that the authorities have no idea what really is going on. I described in detail what actually is happening in my blog Oct 5. The investigators are looking  in the wrong direction. Do something and do it now before the final collapse.

Listen US you are destroying the confidence for the stock markets. What have you been doing against these crimes the last 20 years - nothing. Do you see what can happen or does it not matter. You must have at least one smart guy among your security guards who knows what is going on. I am sitting in Europe and looking at my computer screen and I see it. What is wrong with you?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/business/clamping-down-on-rapid-trades-in-stock-market.html?pagewanted=all?src=tp

Manipulation of a trend

When small groups manipulate a trend they cheat many other traders in the world. They probably do it for money but do not think of how many traders will lose the same amount of money the next day. To me it is a crime all over the world to behave like this.

Wall Street is the last trading place for the day. The trend they set will mostly be followed in Asia and Europe the next day. The cheaters groups are often long Asian and European indexes because they have planned when to do this in advance. So these long positions in over sea indexes are bought at the bottom. They start exactly two hours before close to force the indexes in the US on upside. They know exactly which stock combination at any given time will get the Dow to move up. There are only 30 companies in the Dow index. Their computers have all facts from any situation on what can be manipulated. It has nothing at all to do with the stocks itself. The cheating groups have done it for many many years. The trading must be slow and turnover low before they start. Then suddenly three stocks start to move up exactly at EST 8.00. They know which stocks are heavy shorted and millions of other facts how to do this crime. As soon as the short covering starts it is only computer trading. No one can bet against these groups. Many of them started with trend manipulation in big scale in the currency markets long before G5 agreed to help USA to take down the dollar. Since everyone else in the world sees this as absolutely impossible they will continue until stopped. By the globalisation they will sooner or later have to stop but not now for many years to come unless the European groups working with this matter to give back succeeds.

After a rise of 400 Dow points in one hour the long positions this group bought at the bottom do not need stops for the next few days. Then the close comes in at a much unexpected chart point for analysts who see that this market, which opened far down suddenly has changed the bear trend to bull trend for the next several days.

One day the world with notice since no one in the US has done anything. USA might get a bad reputation or does it not matter.