Dow and SP500 are leading the markets higher. Dows uptrend can reach the 11.900 area with the bear market still in place. A move above 12.000 could change the bear market classification. Today is the last trading day in August and tomorrow the 8 months MA will turn down for the second time. There is still a technical chance during September to get out of the bear market for Dow and SP500.
The European indexes are following Dow but so far in a very timid way and I see no chance for any of them to change the bear market status at present. The most likely scenario for these indexes is to move up maximum 61,8 percent of the total fall from Julys top and then top out and fall to a new low.
This will all take time, maybe a few months until the next serious drop occurs.
The fundamental situation has not changed at all. The recession signs are still coming in from most countries and there is no strong indication that a recession can be avoided. Yes there are small news to trade on upside now and then but the big picture still look the same.
The best analysts in the world disagree about the main trend. One famous chartist urges the americans to be fully invested now expecting Dow and SP to take new highs. Others see a 1930 scenario coming with start very soon.
I still want to stay in cash with no positions regarding the indexes for the moment.
The European indexes are following Dow but so far in a very timid way and I see no chance for any of them to change the bear market status at present. The most likely scenario for these indexes is to move up maximum 61,8 percent of the total fall from Julys top and then top out and fall to a new low.
This will all take time, maybe a few months until the next serious drop occurs.
The fundamental situation has not changed at all. The recession signs are still coming in from most countries and there is no strong indication that a recession can be avoided. Yes there are small news to trade on upside now and then but the big picture still look the same.
The best analysts in the world disagree about the main trend. One famous chartist urges the americans to be fully invested now expecting Dow and SP to take new highs. Others see a 1930 scenario coming with start very soon.
I still want to stay in cash with no positions regarding the indexes for the moment.
No comments:
Post a Comment