The sideways trend has now been in place between four to eight months for the main indexes and still no clear sign where the new trend will go.

There has been a two weeks rally on upside which now seems to have stopped below earlier highs. Since the weekly MA:s still points to a breakout on downside this is my main theory. The monthly MA:s are still up which is a sign that the trend can break on upside. However the monthly charts for IBEX, Swed30 and FTSE will soon see the 8 MA:s go sideways or down. The indexes always moves in the same direction i a new trend. There are lots of other indications that points in the same direction. Here are a few.

The big deficits in the European PIIGS countries will not go away and the Euro countries seems unable to solve the problems. The U.S. deficit and Obamas difficulties to persuade the congress to lift the debt ceiling hangs over the markets. Employment reports all over the world points to slowing growth. House prices are still falling in the U.S. and Spain. Gold is still in a strong uptrend pointing to increased inflation while the central banks refuse to lift interest rates in the U.S and UK.

The sharp downward correction in the bear market 2008 should have continued down like it did in 1929 . The uptrend or bull market that started in March 2009 took of on enormous liquidity injections from central banks and built on continuous injections. What was lacking was new jobs and  falling unemployment. I do believe in a second drop of the market indexes and that we now are seeing the top before that bear market. The difficulty is to find the exact start for that drop and that is what this blog is about. I believe I can find it but it can still take a few months.