31/12/2012
Hours from "fiscal cliff," Washington still awaits deal. DOW, SP500 and NAS are hardly moving in Europe
(Reuters) - The U.S. Congress comes back on Monday without a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" and only a few hours of actual legislative time scheduled in which to act if an agreement materializes.
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The three US indexes looks the same now after more than 10 hours CFD trading.
The charts on the second blog below are unchanged more or less. In Europe this morning only a few CFD markets are open with very thin trading.
NYSE will start trading as usual from 15:30. Between 17:00 and 18:00 the congress will reconvene. Media have different versions of what will happen. As far as I understand the White house is preparing for the worst case scenario by making plans for Jan 4 to start a changing the law process with the new congress which will start its first session Jan 3 with more democrats in both the House and the Senate but the majority will be the same. The interesting thing just now is what the traders will do today in the U.S. One paper said that if the markets dive that could influence congress to do something the last hours of the month, because that has happened before. Others say the market will be quiet because it is New Years Eve.
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The three US indexes looks the same now after more than 10 hours CFD trading.
The charts on the second blog below are unchanged more or less. In Europe this morning only a few CFD markets are open with very thin trading.
NYSE will start trading as usual from 15:30. Between 17:00 and 18:00 the congress will reconvene. Media have different versions of what will happen. As far as I understand the White house is preparing for the worst case scenario by making plans for Jan 4 to start a changing the law process with the new congress which will start its first session Jan 3 with more democrats in both the House and the Senate but the majority will be the same. The interesting thing just now is what the traders will do today in the U.S. One paper said that if the markets dive that could influence congress to do something the last hours of the month, because that has happened before. Others say the market will be quiet because it is New Years Eve.
29/12/2012
All my daily indexes June 2012 - December 2012. Here you can compare US, Europe and Asia during the last 145 trading days.
DOW fell 158 points Friday to close at 12.933.9 which is a 22 day closing low. The result of the Cliff will probably not come until Sunday so a forecast can not be made now for next week.
The last steep wave came 20 min before close on news that Obama did not have a plan himself to give to the party leaders who were in discussions with the president. As you see the Dow closed in a S area.
28/12/2012
NAS 2 hr holding just above main support now
Main support for NAS is 2.620.50. See line.
NAS in the middle of today's bar a bit below Thursdays close
This is an ideal position for the bears next week to get a close below the 50 MA. You see the 8 and 21 MA falling but no cross yet, might come
next trading day.
DOW rallies when NYSE opens
NYSE starts with short covering at 15.30, reaches 13.035.4. Closes down but above main S at 13.017.2.
Now holding around main S. Bottom building contionus.
DOW is falling below important S points on 2 hr chart
Dow has broken main S at 13.017.2 and Fib 38.2. Next S is 13.001.5. Last S before new low is 12.960.4
DOW weekly line chart with waves.
Here is the same weekly chart as the blog below in line. To study the waves it is very important to see a chart from different perspectives. To me this chart shows a five wave uptrend with a three waves extension. Then from the top comes a five wave downtrend and finally a three wave upside correction which is loosing steam. If a downtrend gets five waves it is always the beginning of a long downtrend after a three wave upside correction.
DOW week with outlook.
Today is the last trading day for the week. The last bar shows high, low and current trading which is going on in the middle of the bar. Click and watch all information in the picture. I do not know now where the close will come but since we only will have rumors about the Cliff I expect the close to be within the bar as it is now. If so the 8 week MA will turn up and giving support and 21 MA will turn down giving resistance on opening next week.
DOW slightly down in Asia and Europe
8 MA is falling steeper. 50 MA is closer to 200 MA and a Death Cross is in the cards. Cliff talks start at 21:00 and cannot affect today's trading - but rumors can.
The important 21 MA is still down.
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and lawmakers are launching a last-chance round of budget talks days before a New Year's deadline to reach a deal or watch the economy go off a "fiscal cliff."
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will meet congressional leaders from both parties at the White House on Friday at 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) to try to revive negotiations to avoid tax hikes and spending cuts - together worth $600 billion - that will begin to take effect on January 1.
Members were divided on the odds of success, with a few expressing hope, some talking as if they had abandoned it and a small but growing number suggesting Congress might try to stretch the deadline into the first two days of January.
In order to be ready to legislate if an agreement takes shape, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives convened a session for Sunday.
And House Majority Leader Eric Cantor advised members to be prepared to meet through January 2, the final day before the swearing-in of the new Congress elected on November 6.
27/12/2012
Republican lawmakers set up 11th-hour bid on "fiscal cliff"
(Reuters) - Lawmakers on Thursday gave themselves a last chance to prevent the United States from plunging off a "fiscal cliff" by setting up a late session in Congress just about a day before taxes are due to rise for most working Americans.
DOW rallied after last blog to close down only 18 points. The reason according to media was a meeting within the republican party. My own opinion after chart analysis points to a possible setup by professionals to make a profit on the drop and recovery.
DOW has fallen 183 points 90 min before close Thursday
With 90 min to go before close the index has fallen 183 points from the high today so far. Dow has crossed the 200 MA and the 50 day MA is falling above. The break below Fridays low - the long bar no 4 to the left - is a dangerous sign for the next few trading days because the 8 day MA will continue to fall and the 21 MA will go sideways to down. However this is a Cliff reaction so we should not take anything for granted.
The steep fall speaks for itself.
26/12/2012
Shares closed lower on Wall Street ahead of the resumption of negotiations over the federal budget in Washington. Thursday trading and trend not clear technically.
22/12/2012
21/12/2012
US lawmakers adjourned until December 27
'Plan B' collapse draws fiscal cliff nearer: Republican House leaders failed to get a vote held on a 'Plan B'. The failure has led to increased pessimism over whether a deal can be struck, and "marks a serious miscalculation on the part of Mr Boehner, who hoped the measure’s passage would increase his leverage in talks with Barack Obama". It was unclear how efforts to reach agreement would proceed, with the House adjourned until December 27 and the Senate, apart from meeting for a few hours this afternoon, effectively doing the same. (Financial Times)(Washington Post)
NAS dives with all other indexes on Cliff news.
8 day MA has turned down before crossing falling 200 MA and market is holding around the falling 50 day MA. Forecast not possible in this situation.
Boehner abandons fiscal cliff plan as Republicans balk
(Reuters) - Republican lawmakers delivered a stinging rebuke to their leader, House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, on Thursday when they failed to back an effort designed to extract concessions from President Barack Obama in year-end "fiscal cliff" talks
DOW 2 hr 05:30
DOW fell 305 points at 02:00 within less than one hour after the news but closed in the middle at 13.141. The 2 hour trend is down and S point is at 13.116.6
DOW day 05:30
8 day MA is down but 21 day MA is up.
DOW fell 305 points at 02:00 within less than one hour after the news but closed in the middle at 13.141. The 2 hour trend is down and S point is at 13.116.6
8 day MA is down but 21 day MA is up.
20/12/2012
DOW has closed gap and the 2 hr 8 MA is turning up. R at the falling 21 MA. Remember that any rumor about the Cliff could change this short chart very easy.
DOW is a bit above Wednesday close which came in at 13.255. High so far is 13.273.50 and 21 MA is currently at 13.299. Lots of other US news at 14:30.
U.S. "fiscal cliff" talks turn sour, Obama threatens veto
Reuters) - Talks to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis stalled on Wednesday as President Barack Obama accused opponents of holding a personal grudge against him while the top Republican negotiator called the president "irrational."
DOW, SP500 and NAS stopped by R line and 2 hr trends now down
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