This blog is about how the world stock markets perform and which way they will take next.I have developed my own technical tools during 30 years to give the investor early warnings for coming big changes in the main trends and for the trader to take positions before the markets react. Click all charts.
30/11/2012
The rallies Wednesday and Thursday happened on false premises. ASIA has not reacted to that, maybe Europe and the U.S. will
Fiscal cliff talks turn sour: US talks to avert the fiscal cliff turned sour after Republicans in Congress rejected what they dubbed a “completely unbalanced and unreasonable” offer from the White House in a round of meetings on Capitol Hill. One Republican aide in the House of Representatives said Tim Geithner presented a plan over the decade for $1.6tn in tax increases, $400bn in spending cuts, at least $50bn in new stimulus and a “permanent” lift in the US borrowing limit. The bid by the White House closely tracks its 2013 budget proposal, meaning Barack Obama has so far been unwilling to make any major concessions. Republicans believe the tax increases are too high and the spending reductions are too few. (Financial Times)
DOW is sideways now and will likely end today sideways or up giving December trading a neutral technical start unless no big news happens.
DOW 2 hr now. Dow is holding only 7 points lower than Thursdays close at 07:12 in Asia. Europe opens in less than 2 hours. HSI in China has taken a new high.
Dow's trend is sideways with the strong 21 MA up below the trend holding this direction until close in US. The trading can only continue sideways or go higher as it looks right now today Friday, the last day of the month and week. The monthly and weekly closes will come in at points which will make these two long trends starting December in a neutral long term situation. All this said unless big news happens. SP500 and NAS are moving the same way.
Dow's trend is sideways with the strong 21 MA up below the trend holding this direction until close in US. The trading can only continue sideways or go higher as it looks right now today Friday, the last day of the month and week. The monthly and weekly closes will come in at points which will make these two long trends starting December in a neutral long term situation. All this said unless big news happens. SP500 and NAS are moving the same way.
29/11/2012
DOW rally is holding but now sideways on 2 hr chart
DOW 2 hr now. DOW's top so far is 13.023.8. The highest 2 hr close is 13.013.8 now trading the third bar at 13.010.8. Very important R point is the falling 8 Month MA at 13.015. Tomorrow after close that point will decrease if DOW holds below 13.209. Very interesting situation and not possible to forecast right now.
The first big Fiscal Cliff rally on rumors started a power full rally just after 16:00 when the market had sold off on bad housing news. Short trades had to be covered all the way back to the top of the trend. Now we must be cautioned about any positive talk about the Cliff in the future. Europes problems are solved for a few months so I expect this to be the new dark horse. To me it seems afterwards as if this was planned by the big money. The Asian indexes made high jumps with big gaps which are still holding 03:00. I think we have to wait until lunchtime in Europe before eventually the markets are back to normal. The daily weekly and monthly trends are still in place so no technical damage there so far.
28/11/2012
The dollars rise against the yen is in focus of the markets. Here the daily chart
Dollar against the yen, USDJPY is the code.
The yen has been down for years but the last several months a bottom has been built and in September the final low was taken, see the chart. Since then an uptrend has started in 5 waves telling me that a longer uptrend is probable, but first a correction must occur. The daily 8 MA is down so a test of the sharply rising 21 and 34 MA:s could be the target for a correction and a buying opportunity.
The yen has been down for years but the last several months a bottom has been built and in September the final low was taken, see the chart. Since then an uptrend has started in 5 waves telling me that a longer uptrend is probable, but first a correction must occur. The daily 8 MA is down so a test of the sharply rising 21 and 34 MA:s could be the target for a correction and a buying opportunity.
SP500 week, day and 2 hr charts
SP500 week now. Observe the cross from the falling 8 MA and the rising 21 week MA. The chart will follow the 8 MA, 21 MA does not matter after a cross. I think that where the 8 MA has hit the bar at 1.403 will be difficult for SP500 to take at Friday close. The bar is also currently below the 1.397.03 S point - see thee line.
SP500 daily chart now. Still hanging around the 8 day MA.
SP500 2 hr now. Trend down to sideways now.
SP500 daily chart now. Still hanging around the 8 day MA.
SP500 2 hr now. Trend down to sideways now.
IBEX week, day and 2 hr now. Still a positive trend
IBEX week now. Several weeks sideways with the rising 21 week MA under. Looks OK to me.
IBEX day now. Does look less stable
IBEX 2 hr now. A beautiful one month chart with everything an analyst could wish. A close to double top and the 2 hr trend is down. Target could be the bottom. On the other hand it could also be a third wave top and a four wave bottom is being built. Just have to wait and see.
IBEX day now. Does look less stable
IBEX 2 hr now. A beautiful one month chart with everything an analyst could wish. A close to double top and the 2 hr trend is down. Target could be the bottom. On the other hand it could also be a third wave top and a four wave bottom is being built. Just have to wait and see.
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