31/01/2012
29/01/2012
28/01/2012
Crucial week will start Jan 30 for the main indexes.
DOW and SP500 daily trends are still up after Friday close.
But the uptrends have lost momentum.
DOW closed at 12.665.3, below the rising 8 day MA for the
first time in 23 days and the 2 hour trend is still down. A new test of crucial
closing point 12.810 might come in the beginning of week January 30. DOW has
only got a short time left to take a new high otherwise the daily trend will
turn down.
SP500 closed the week at 1.316.40. The daily trend is still
up and the 2 hour trend will start sideways on Monday. The important weekly
resistance point is at 1.316.10 more or less the same as the closing point. The
index closed just 2 points higher than last week which could be looked upon as
a double top.
FTSE is the most vulnerable index with 2 closes below the 8 daily
MA. 2 hour trend is down and I expect this index to be the first to change the
uptrend.
SWED has a strong daily uptrend with 2 hour trend moving
sideways.
DAX is the strongest index well in its uptrend channel and a
2 hour uptrend.
Conclusions: A very important week is coming for the indexes
continued uptrends. There are signs that a trend change can come any day.
27/01/2012
EC's Rehn: Next three days crucial for euro zone
By MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) - Olli Rehn, the vice president of the European Commission, said Friday during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the "next three days will be very crucial for the future" of the euro zone. Rehn said that Greece was close to agreeing a deal with its private creditors. Athens is trying to secure another installment of EU bailout funds to help it avoid going bankrupt, but the nation needs to reduce its current debt with private lenders. Rehn said: "This will be a very important three-day period for reinforcing confidence in the euro zone." World leaders taking part in the summit at the Swiss ski resort are continuing to debate the future of the euro zone, capitalism and related economic topics.
DOW very close to a 3 year high or a break on downside.
DOW, SP500, DAX, FTSE and SWED are all in their up trend channels and the daily rising 8 MA's have so far stopped any downside trial. There is only one thing to keep in mind for the next few days. DOW's 2011 top close was 12.810. Yesterday this index tried to make a new 3 year high and reached an intraday top of 12.838 but closed down at 12.733.6. Since the up trends are still in place a new test could come very soon.
Either DOW takes a new 3 year high or try a few more days and then turn around for downside. A very interesting interesting situation.
Either DOW takes a new 3 year high or try a few more days and then turn around for downside. A very interesting interesting situation.
26/01/2012
25/01/2012
24/01/2012
SP500 day chart and about the EUROS new daily uptrend
The EURO has built a strong bottom and broken out of the daily channel on upside and the daily trend is now up for the EURO.
23/01/2012
Indexes are in steady uptrend but there are now warnings signals.
SP500 closed on Monday at 1.315.20, more or less the same as the last two days. DOW closed lower than Friday at 12.707.5.
The market has been very optimistic until mid session. It now seems like EU will save Greece. The last week has been negative speculation which now seems to turn. This is probably priced in by now.The way of trading in New York Monday by sudden rallies and dips use to be the beginning of a top. Although the daily and weekly trends are still up and the price channels on the charts are holding well I am still searching for any weakness in the uptrend.
SP500 main resistance point on daily or weekly close is still 1.116.10. Now we have had three trials of the index to close above without success so now it is time to watch closely. DOW' drop to a lower close also indicates to the investor to carefully follow the markets now.
Europe has the same problem but they are not testing July's top as the US indexes but the October top. Pend-ling up and down these points. Another reason to be careful with Europe is the technical bear market that exists. For Europe the 8 months falling MA has crossed the 21 months MA on downside which use to be a strong indicator of a sudden turn around when the monthly bar goes over the 8 MA.
Very many technical indicators speak against each others just now.
The market has been very optimistic until mid session. It now seems like EU will save Greece. The last week has been negative speculation which now seems to turn. This is probably priced in by now.The way of trading in New York Monday by sudden rallies and dips use to be the beginning of a top. Although the daily and weekly trends are still up and the price channels on the charts are holding well I am still searching for any weakness in the uptrend.
SP500 main resistance point on daily or weekly close is still 1.116.10. Now we have had three trials of the index to close above without success so now it is time to watch closely. DOW' drop to a lower close also indicates to the investor to carefully follow the markets now.
Europe has the same problem but they are not testing July's top as the US indexes but the October top. Pend-ling up and down these points. Another reason to be careful with Europe is the technical bear market that exists. For Europe the 8 months falling MA has crossed the 21 months MA on downside which use to be a strong indicator of a sudden turn around when the monthly bar goes over the 8 MA.
Very many technical indicators speak against each others just now.
22/01/2012
The Great technical possibility.
21/01/2012
The very big picture from my technical perspective
Currently the U.S., Britain and Europe are asking about one per
cent for loans. The sovereign debts increase enormously year by year. There is
no stop insight for either of these habits. The SP500 has moved from 100, 1982
to 1.500, 2000. A drop to 800, 2002 and a new top at 1.500 2007 and a drop to
800, 2009. From here a top 2011 or 2012 at 1.300 – 1.500. The big technical
picture shows that there are five waves on upside 1900 – 2001. This third top
in 2012 seems to be the final top before the big drop that will take the
indexes down to the fourth wave at 100 within a few years. Yields on 10 year
notes have fallen from 16 % to 2% during 30 years. These yields are at the very
bottom and from here we will start to move up again within months with the long
term target of 16%. Bond yields and SP500 followed each other 1962 – 1985. Then
yields fell and SP500 rose to 1.500. After the top that will come 2012 the
index will fall and rates go up until the curves meet again.
Friday rally in U.S. the last 15 minutes took Dow and SP500 to new highs. What does that mean for week Jan 23?
The intervention rally during the last 15 minutes took SP500
from 1.311.77 to the top close at 1.314.51. Very near to the first weekly
close resistance at 1.316.07. DOW rallied to a new high and closed at the top
at 12.718.7 just 6 points shy of July daily high close at 12.724.0
DAX, FTSE, CAC and SWED all closed on new highs but just
below October highs.
The strong up trends are all in place and the markets should go higher on Monday. The EURO closed above a weekly important resistance point at 1.2931.8.
I do not believe the DOW and SP500 take can take out the
2011 tops right now but the coming week will be extremely interesting. Asia trading Monday will give us the first clue.
20/01/2012
SP500 charts now.
SP500 has very strong weekly resistance point at 1.316.10. In trading short term I assume that this point will be above tonight's close. I could be wrong but this is trading. Thursdays close high was 1.315.15. Today's high so far has been 1.315.06.
Rallies have difficulties to hold above 1.312.81. The one hour trend is now down. Selling 1.312.81 now in small pieces. Today's target if a break on downside occurs will be 1.299. If the 1 hour downtrend will be in place at close I will keep positions.
19/01/2012
This is a six month daily line chart showing SWED but the same could be said about SP500.
Very small movements in Asia and Europe until now, CET 12:30.
All indexes are moving near Wednesdays close in the U.S. 1 hour, 2 hour, daily and weekly trends are up and the indexes are moving in channels slowly up. Observe that the daily bars now are very close to the channel top so a move down to the channel bottom could occur. SP500 and DOW has broken all resistance points for moving higher. The European indexes still have important resistance points to take out above current level.
The daily and weekly charts for DOW, SP500, DAX and SWED look strong and bullish. It is very important now to follow the trading on 5 -30 minutes chart to see if anything happens that can look like a trend change. The strong indexes are all trading above the falling 8 month MA. But I want a close above these MA:s to name the indexes bull markets.
The EURO's uptrend continues slowly and one important resistance point has been taken this morning.
The daily and weekly charts for DOW, SP500, DAX and SWED look strong and bullish. It is very important now to follow the trading on 5 -30 minutes chart to see if anything happens that can look like a trend change. The strong indexes are all trading above the falling 8 month MA. But I want a close above these MA:s to name the indexes bull markets.
The EURO's uptrend continues slowly and one important resistance point has been taken this morning.
SP500, DOW, FTSE and DAX new closing highs.
The uptrend has now been running for 21 trading days. SP500, DOW and DAX shows no signs of slowing down. FTSE and SWED are hesitating to move higher. The bond auctions in Europe have been impressing. It feels now like the medias warnings about Europe's economic outcome is too pessimistic. The EURO is attacking its top channel and the positive trends in commodities, China's economy etc together with the technical charts points to further strong Euro support.
I do not know what kind of news will stop the up trends.
I do not know what kind of news will stop the up trends.
18/01/2012
17/01/2012
Asian rally slows down now in Europe, all indexes 15 min trend now sideways. FTSE which jumped as well at the opening but did not go higher than the 10 days sideways trend seems to turn down. The whole rally in Asia could have been a bull-trap on intervention. Follow markets carefully because the fundamental articles about downgrading and Greece seems to have been totally forgotten during the night in Europe.
16/01/2012
14/01/2012
U.S. indexes made a rally last hour. What will happen now?
The EURO closed at a weekly resistance point and might take a new low the first days of the week.
The fundamental input will come from big company results this week. The big picture shows the European indexes blocked to go much higher by the falling 8 months MA and on the downside is the rising two week trends.
13/01/2012
SP500's situation now.
The last close at CET 17:00 for the 2 hour chart was the lowest close so far. It came in at 1.282:53. Now the market wants to test the earlier support points that were broken in the downtrend. First resistance on upside is 1.284.72, then 1.285:87 and finally the most important at 1.286.95.
All of these points must be taken back soon with a 2 hour close. If not a big fall will occur today or next Monday.
All of these points must be taken back soon with a 2 hour close. If not a big fall will occur today or next Monday.
12/01/2012
The Europe and US fundamentals are now squared.
Europe came in with very good prospects for Spain's sovereign problems. Could easily borrow 10 billion out of 170 this year for around 5 percent long bonds. Spain has only 60 percent of BNP as debt, better than Germany for instance. Italy is the only country that I have doubts about still, but Thursday auction was OK but next week will show longer bonds.
Even if Greece cannot make it and Italy will have problems I now believe that the Euro zone will make it and that the Euro will be OK.
I think that the problematic state will be the U.S. during the coming months with no increase in Christmas retail and an increase in number for new unemployment help.
No one can tell which is worse off for 2012, US or Europe. All the good things about America during Christmas just crashed today and US is back to square one will lots of problems ahead. If the dollar starts falling or China get less money the Fed will have to buy most of the new notes and bonds and that situation is much worse than what could happen in Europe. And think about this. How long can the U.S. auction notes for less than two percent. Certainly not forever. Add the political situation and it smells problems.
Even if Greece cannot make it and Italy will have problems I now believe that the Euro zone will make it and that the Euro will be OK.
I think that the problematic state will be the U.S. during the coming months with no increase in Christmas retail and an increase in number for new unemployment help.
No one can tell which is worse off for 2012, US or Europe. All the good things about America during Christmas just crashed today and US is back to square one will lots of problems ahead. If the dollar starts falling or China get less money the Fed will have to buy most of the new notes and bonds and that situation is much worse than what could happen in Europe. And think about this. How long can the U.S. auction notes for less than two percent. Certainly not forever. Add the political situation and it smells problems.
Gold is in a 11 days uptrend and closed Thursday at 1.650. First resistance is 1.677. Gold has done five waves on downside which use to be the beginning of a down trend.If the current uptrend will reach only three waves the gold should be in for a big fall. This will take about two weeks to figure out.
Thursdays close keeps the trends up
Thursday DOW closed at 12.468.1 and SP500 at 1.294.90, both new daily highs.
The trend is slow but strongly up. Earlier today mentioned targets are still in place.
The trend is slow but strongly up. Earlier today mentioned targets are still in place.
Euro-zon indexes rally and SP500 takes new high. DOW and FTSE still in sideways trends.
DAX makes a powerful break on upside. Now at 6.232 and target seems to be 6.370 area. SP500 takes a new high above 1.297. Target could be 1.305. SWED breaks above its falling 200 MA and target could be 1.034.
10/01/2012
This is why the markets have rallied Tuesday
There has been speculation in media all over the world why the SP500 rallied from opening in Asia CET 01.00 Tuesday morning. In CNBC they said this morning that no one know why the stocks rallied today.
This is why. SP500 was during the last six days creating a big fourth wave and an hourly close in the market at 1.282 would trigger this wave to make a fifth wave on upside where the target mathematically would be above 1.296. The computers and experienced analysts know this. Nothing at all happened fundamentally.
This is why. SP500 was during the last six days creating a big fourth wave and an hourly close in the market at 1.282 would trigger this wave to make a fifth wave on upside where the target mathematically would be above 1.296. The computers and experienced analysts know this. Nothing at all happened fundamentally.
08/01/2012
The Big picture now for the stock indexes
After the first week of 2012 one index has turned
technically bullish and that is the DOW. There is only one thing that makes me
hesitate about the Dow and that is the falling 8 months MA. On the other hand
this index is now above its 200 MA which is rising and the 50 days MA has
crossed the 200 MA on upside and is rising.
Much good news about the American economy came last week
especially regarding the employment situation telling me that the US economy is
slowly starting up. The US blue chips index is also looked upon as a safe haven
when the dollar goes up and the Euro down. A good alternative to bonds. However
the daily trend has been sideways the first week and there is a possibility of
a drop if the Spanish and Italian bond auctions this coming week will be too
bad.
SP500 is number two but not in a bull market technically.
The daily and weekly trends are up but the monthly trend down.
FTSE, SWED and DAX are the best performing European indexes with
daily and weekly trends up. The 2 hour trends however are down or sideways.
CAC, IBEX and MIB weekly, daily and 2 hour trends are all
down.
There is no clear long term trend for any of the indexes
yet. The EURO finished last week down at a new 16 months low just above 1.2678
which is a strong resistance point. I expect the Euro to continue down and
there is a risk of a steep fall if the European crisis suddenly gets worse during
the coming weeks.
06/01/2012
SP500 and DOW closed at the same level for a third day on Thursday
The daily trends are still up and the 2 hour trends are moving sideways. Markets are now waiting for US employment data for December at CET 14.30 which is expected to come in at 150.000 new jobs. These figures are always market movers.
Next week Spain and Italy will sell 10 year bonds and the yields will focus the markets.
It is still to early for me to give a relevant prognosis for the indexes.
Next week Spain and Italy will sell 10 year bonds and the yields will focus the markets.
It is still to early for me to give a relevant prognosis for the indexes.
05/01/2012
04/01/2012
More about the gaps for DOW and SP500
All indexes daily trends are up but the 2 hour trends for Dow and SP500 are down.
Tuesdays huge gaps must be closed and this could be the start to do just that. Dow's gap is at 12.242.6 and SP500's gap starts at 11.260.94. The road down could take time and the downtrend could also change before the gaps are closed.
I still want to see more of the trading to give my forecast for a longer trend.
Tuesdays huge gaps must be closed and this could be the start to do just that. Dow's gap is at 12.242.6 and SP500's gap starts at 11.260.94. The road down could take time and the downtrend could also change before the gaps are closed.
I still want to see more of the trading to give my forecast for a longer trend.
01/01/2012
The trading Tuesday January 3, is too difficult to call. The stock indexes point in different directions.
A lot could be written about the outlook for the stock indexes the first week of 2012 but I have chosen to just concentrate on the small trends direction until I know more during the week.
DOW closed the year at 12.209.5 after a steep fall the last hour. SP500 did the same to close at 1.256.65. The one hour trends are down but the daily trends are up. The turnover the last week of 2011 has been about half of what is normal and it is difficult to draw definite conclusions of what will happen now.
The English FTSE100 closed several hours earlier in Europe at a very interesting point, 5.575.98, just below the falling monthly trend. At the opening Januaries trend will be lower at the same time the 2 hr trend is up.
All of my questions will get answers the coming days and I think the whole week will be very interesting.
I wish all my readers a prosperous 2012.
DOW closed the year at 12.209.5 after a steep fall the last hour. SP500 did the same to close at 1.256.65. The one hour trends are down but the daily trends are up. The turnover the last week of 2011 has been about half of what is normal and it is difficult to draw definite conclusions of what will happen now.
The English FTSE100 closed several hours earlier in Europe at a very interesting point, 5.575.98, just below the falling monthly trend. At the opening Januaries trend will be lower at the same time the 2 hr trend is up.
All of my questions will get answers the coming days and I think the whole week will be very interesting.
I wish all my readers a prosperous 2012.
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