The last wave in this 5 year bull market has now done 18 months. This is what Elliott calls sub-minuet wave. We are close to the final tops unless a very high bar comes - see the monthly gold chart below. This trend looks like the monthly indexes I have shown but finished with a very high monthly bar.
If a bar like this occurs in a stock index it is time to sell the investment stocks and go short. Observe that the down trend did not start until the 8 MA started to fall. A rising monthly 8 MA will always get the trend back if it falls below.
The fundamentals now is in my view unchanged. The big negative will be a deepening crisis between Japan and China or in Ukraine. The markets seems to have built in unemployment, interest rates and sideways moving GDP. Lately the US slowing economy signs are weighed up by positive news regarding company results. The dollar index has lost its upward momentum. All main currencies are in very slow trends. The markets turnover has decreased lately and there are no signs of a change. The computer traders are taking the indexes up or down without fundamental reasons every day when the US opens. This lack of substance make it very difficult for medium term forecasts.
We just have to follow the big trends on daily, weekly and monthly charts after close.
If a bar like this occurs in a stock index it is time to sell the investment stocks and go short. Observe that the down trend did not start until the 8 MA started to fall. A rising monthly 8 MA will always get the trend back if it falls below.
The fundamentals now is in my view unchanged. The big negative will be a deepening crisis between Japan and China or in Ukraine. The markets seems to have built in unemployment, interest rates and sideways moving GDP. Lately the US slowing economy signs are weighed up by positive news regarding company results. The dollar index has lost its upward momentum. All main currencies are in very slow trends. The markets turnover has decreased lately and there are no signs of a change. The computer traders are taking the indexes up or down without fundamental reasons every day when the US opens. This lack of substance make it very difficult for medium term forecasts.
We just have to follow the big trends on daily, weekly and monthly charts after close.
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