05/12/2013

All things considered

SP500 is now the strongest index with DOW as number two. DAX has got two days with big drops and has now got the 8 MA down as all the other indexes. However SP500 is working hard to hit the 8 MA but so far the high has been below 800. Today and Friday with lots of US news could spark the trends in any direction. Especially Friday with Employment situation. The technical picture is at the edge to conclude a continued downtrend or not. Thursday and Friday will give more clues.

FTSE has broken its daily triangle on downside but only intra day. This morning it is holding above the critical line. The US and German 10 year notes and bunds are falling further and interest rates are moving up in Europe and the US. Already there are enough evidence on the downside for the stock indexes so here is the second WARNING for trend change to down. So far FTSE is still the only index with a crossover sell signal - now 34 days. If FTSE breaks out of the Daily or Monthly triangle on downside I think we have got the tops of the indexes definitely in place and a bear market has started.

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