01/07/2013

Outlook for this week, July 1, 2013

The FTSE and SWED use to be the leaders or the indexes which shows the way for other indexes. Both of them today got weekly sell signals with crosses where both 8 and 21 week MA are falling. A very strong R point for any rally at least for a month. This tells me that the highs have been seen for FTSE and SWED. DAX, SP500 and DOW have only got falling 8 week MA which is just a warning to the market that they might hold in coming rallies. The 21 MA:s are rising and trading is now between these MA:s which means sideways. All the indexes will probably see the daily 8 MA start rising from Tuesday putting a stop to new lows. SP500 for instance does not seem to get below 600 as by now but this can change in the US later today. FTSE and SWED should be shorted on rallies up, close to the weekly crosses. This week with the 8 day MA rising no short positions. I expect continued big swings on a daily basis which is profitable for the robot traders. I warn against all day trading. We are going to take long term short positions when the rallies reaches its tops. Now when a stop on downside eventually will come and we have the weekly sell signal I will try to guide you through this week.

The first thing to look for is if SP500 and the DOW will get a close above FIB 61,8. For Dow it is at 15.039.4 and for SP500 at 618. If these lines hold during the week with rising day 8 MA then it could be very interesting for a break on downside late this week.

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