All indexes daily trends are now up.

Dow and SP500 are leading the markets higher. Dows uptrend can reach the 11.900 area with the bear market still in place. A move above 12.000 could change the bear market classification. Today is the last trading day in August and tomorrow the 8 months MA will turn down for the second time. There is still a technical chance during September to get out of the bear market for Dow and SP500.

The European indexes are following Dow but so far in a very timid way and I see no chance for any of them to change the bear market status at present. The most likely scenario for these indexes is to move up maximum 61,8 percent of the total fall from Julys top and then top out and fall to a new low.

This will all take time, maybe a few months until the next serious drop occurs.

The fundamental situation has not changed at all. The recession signs are still coming in from most countries and there is no strong indication that a recession can be avoided. Yes there are small news to trade on upside now and then but the big picture still look the same.

The best analysts in the world disagree about the main trend. One famous chartist urges the americans to be fully invested now expecting Dow and SP to take new highs. Others see a 1930 scenario coming with start very soon.

I still want to stay in cash with no positions regarding the indexes for the moment.

Dow and SP500 have now started their correction rallies.

Dow and SP500  got above the earlier correction top and are now technically in a daily uptrend which can go much higher and last long. Next target will be the falling 8 week MA.

European stock indexes are up but lack the strong technical picture that the U.S. indexes have.

U.S. indexes close week just below resistance level.

The Bernanke speech lifted the U.S. indexes on upside to close the week just below the 21 day MA:s.
Dow and SP500 now seems to  load for the long awaited correction rally which might start this week. On Tuesday the 8 day MA will finely turn on upside giving a clear signal to cross the 21 MA.

The European markets seems less agressive but use to follow the American indexes in situations like the current.

I must admit that the last two weeks have been very difficult to predict the short term trend because the markets has been so volatile and changed the hourly trend very often. My job is to write about the long term trends and they are still very much in place but I know that many want me to tell my view of the short time picture which is not my speciality and I am doing my best.

The so called robot trading get bigger ad bigger and the computers which trade on all markets get smarter and smarter. I have seen the start of it and got used to it in the currency markets during the 1990:s. The result of this computer trading which only works on the short trends sometimes makes it impossible to tell what will happen the next few days. So when I talk about the short term trend it often get changed by a sudden intervention of computer trading that sudenly pushes the market very high and then turn around to send the trading to a new bottom. Day traders usually know this fact and many loses money so often that they stop trading. In the currency markets it is said that only 5 percent win.

All markets are awaiting Bernanke speech for the next move

On Thursday the Dow and SP500 made a quick move up and hit the 21 day falling MA. There after these indexes fell the whole session to close just above the falling 8 day MA. . European indexes did not make the same rush up but fell to close beelow the 8 day MA. Asia trading has been very calm this morning.

Todays trading until CET 16.00 is expected to be slow and then a powerfull move up or down on Bernankes speech. The short trends are mixed.

U.S. indexes push through falling MA and closes on top.

The Dow and SP500 worked themselves up through the falling 8 days MA to close on high. The hourly trend is now up and the target seems to be the correction top which is just below the 21 day falling MA.

The European indexes which are traded until CET 22:00 followed the american indexes. These are CAC, DAX and FTSE. The trend is up regarding all indexes now. IBEX, SWED and MIB which close at CET 17:30 will jumpstart Thursday morning in Europe.

The U.S. analysts are looking forward to a speech Friday at CET 16:00 by the Fed chief Bernanke which most likely will have a big effect on the markets. The question is if the central bank will give more stimulus to the economy and if so, when.

A positive speech could send the market above the correction top. Such a move could start a strong correction upwards. For now the markets are volatile and the trends are up.

CET 13:20 Tuesday's small move on upside halted in Asia and Europe.

The U.S. players tried to start an upside trend last hour in New York. FTSE, DAX and CAC followed. The 8 days falling MA stopped effectively the move. Today this MA has fallen more and today's trading is below the MA.  The MA will fall further the rest of this week plus Monday unless the U.S. traders mange to cross the MA on upside. It is very seldom a move manages to go through a falling 8 days MA.

However this August drop has been very special so there is a small chance they will succeed if they try hard in low turnover. The big players want to start a short covering rally  because there are no fundamental reasons to buy now. Even if they manage to take the markets  through the 8 MA they will run into the falling 21 day MA which will send the trading back to the 8 MA in one or a few days time.

The big picture is clear and unshakable. The markets are in a bear market and there is no signs of any fundamental or technical facts that could change this.

It is more likely that we might see a fall today or the next three days. I prefer just to watch the stock markets right now without positions

Gold made a new drop yesterday creating a so called key reversal which means that the top of the trend was seen yesterday if the coming days gold does not get above 61.8 % of yesterdays bar.

UK oil is around 108 dollar per barrel and the weekly chart tells me that from next week the technical picture will start to deteriorate and continue to do so for at least a month. I am still recommending short positions at current level to hold for a long period of time.

CET 07:15 Main indexes short trend now sideways

Mondays trading and trading in Asia today have changed the short trend from down to sideways. It is now not sure how the market will perform today. A break on upside is possible for the Dow and SP500 as well as sideways trend and a break on downside.

The big trends are still down.