30/04/2012
SP500 charts now. 2 hour, daily and monthly
SP 2 hour trend is strong on upside towards the double top to the left.
Below is the daily trend where you can see the double top as well but a more hesitant approach on upside.
Here is the big monthly trend from 2007. One bar is one month. Today the 30 April there will be a close at the last bar and a new one will start tomorrow. You see the 8 MA moving strongly on upside now and just below is the 21 MA. The MA's shows a very strong uptrend and any drop on downside will be stopped by the 8 MA. The trend can move sideways and up but not down.
27/04/2012
DOW and SP500 resistance points at 13.258.7 and 1.402.35 held Thursday.
These R points are very important for the break out up trends that started yesterday and might be tested again. The 2 hour trends are still up.
Asia has traded below the indexes and Europe will open in 10 minutes. I expect continued volatility today.
Asia has traded below the indexes and Europe will open in 10 minutes. I expect continued volatility today.
26/04/2012
DOW must get above 13.128.4
DOW has been trading sideways for 8 days. To break this trend on upside the index must get above 13.128.4. US close Wednesday was 13.088 and the high in Asia today is 13.100.5. Now trading at 13.094. What i wrote about SP500 in the blogg below goes for the Dow as well.
SP500 outlook. The main indexes have now moved sideways between 8 and 12 days and a break out must come sooner or later.
SP500 range for 12 days has been 1.356.82 - 1.393.81. Today Thursday the index is testing the upside for the fourth time. High so far this morning is 1.392.98. The close on Wall Street Wednesday was 1.391 and during the last seven hours in Asia there are again signs of a topping out process below the top 1.393.81. A break on upside can still come today so we have to wait for trading in Europe and maybe even for the US economic news at CET 14:30. If SP500 turns down again there is a possibility that this index has seen its final top at 1.424.70.
24/04/2012
SWED why a sudden stop in the daily downtrend occurred.
The chart to the left is the monthly chart. Look at the rising 8 month MA which halts the down trend. Below is the daily chart which looks like yesterdays fall with a close at the bottom would continue down today.
This is an example how the monthly MA stops the trend.
IBEX 1995 - 2012
DOW daily, weekly and monthly until April 24 2012
DOW, SP500 and FTSE are holding above critical support points while DAX, SWED and IBEX are taking new lows.
All daily trends are down but the weekly and monthly trends are either up or sideways for all indexes but IBEX which gets closer to the last support points from 2009 day by day.
The weekly trends 8 MA's are mostly down but the 21 MA's are up. To get a steep fall the 8 MA must cross the 21 MA which also must turn down. This will take several weeks in some cases. The monthly trends are all up and it is seldom an index can penetrate and get below a rising monthly 8 or 21 MA.
These technical facts makes a falling daily trend less dangerous and we have seen during the last few weeks how the daily movements suddenly can turn both up and down without warning. It is most often the weekly and monthly trend lines that causes this.
Because of this some indexes are difficult to predict at present but that will change with time and as soon as the road is open for up or downside you will read it in the blog. It is difficult to explain and understand but I will try to show how it works with pictures in the blogs the weeks ahead.
The weekly trends 8 MA's are mostly down but the 21 MA's are up. To get a steep fall the 8 MA must cross the 21 MA which also must turn down. This will take several weeks in some cases. The monthly trends are all up and it is seldom an index can penetrate and get below a rising monthly 8 or 21 MA.
These technical facts makes a falling daily trend less dangerous and we have seen during the last few weeks how the daily movements suddenly can turn both up and down without warning. It is most often the weekly and monthly trend lines that causes this.
Because of this some indexes are difficult to predict at present but that will change with time and as soon as the road is open for up or downside you will read it in the blog. It is difficult to explain and understand but I will try to show how it works with pictures in the blogs the weeks ahead.
23/04/2012
All indexes fell on opening in Europe.
The indexes are still falling. DAX has only one support point left, 6.529.84 before a bigger fall could set in. SWED also only got one support point left at 1.015.43. SP500 have support at 1.362.56 and 1.356.81.
21/04/2012
More about what the charts below tell me and investment advice.
If the price today is 1.400 and the maximum price 1.500 eventually as SP500, should you invest in SP500 now ? Do you want to gamble with your money to eventually get 7 percent. Of course not. Get out of the stock markets now and hold all your money on a current account which you can move immediately. Bonds will not go higher and the yield is extremely low unless you want to take risks. Bond prices can only fall. Wait for a new long-term opportunity. This is my advice. Cash is the king now. Since Angela Merkel and Ben Bernanke both are afraid of bank-runs you should see to that your money can be moved out of the bank quickly. If one bank-run happens in for instance Chicago it will only take hours next morning until banks in Germany will see big money moving out and eventual bank-runs start in Europe. As Bernanke said, we cannot stop this anymore.
The weekly chart does not show any change since last week and the daily chart is moving sideways. Only if you are a day trader you should participate in the stock market. Do not try yourself to day trade because only 2,5 percent of day traders make a profit and I promise that it will take at least 8 years to make profits.
So where should you look for investment. My advice is to be prepared to buy apartments at the sea in southern Spain soon. Prices might drop another 20 percent or so but it is worth looking in to it now and pinpoint the apartments you want.
The weekly chart does not show any change since last week and the daily chart is moving sideways. Only if you are a day trader you should participate in the stock market. Do not try yourself to day trade because only 2,5 percent of day traders make a profit and I promise that it will take at least 8 years to make profits.
So where should you look for investment. My advice is to be prepared to buy apartments at the sea in southern Spain soon. Prices might drop another 20 percent or so but it is worth looking in to it now and pinpoint the apartments you want.
SP500 Very big perspective to daily trend. From above to down. 1984 - 2012, next trend from 2007 - 2012 and finally Oct 2011 - April 2012. Look at the first chart. From 1982 to 1995 the index climbed slowly. 1995 to 2000 the big move came from 500 to 1.500. Then down to 800 and then up to 1.500 again and again down to 800 and now at 1.400. Yes 1.500 again is a possibility but not higher. When ever the current up trend is over there will most certainly be a drop to 800 again. If 800 should break we will be back at 500 and 1995 again.
20/04/2012
IBEX and Europe's biggest bank, Banco Santander, Spain closed at new lows not far from March 2009 lows.
IBEX closed Wednesday at the low for the day at 7.078.8. Next support is at 6.889.5. Banco Santander closed at 4.828. Last support lies at a weekly close at 4.090 and intraday low at 3.940.
18/04/2012
DOW now
DOW closed Tuesday at 13.110.4 after a technical rally. Wednesday's range so far at CET 12.00 is 13.069.4 to 13.108.4. Resistance points are 13.110.4 and 13.125. Support points 13.007.5 and 12.926.
Monthly, Weekly and Daily trends are up. The 2 hour trend has just turned down.
Asia and Europe have not even traded above Wall Street close Tuesday indicating that it was only a technical rally without substance.
Monthly, Weekly and Daily trends are up. The 2 hour trend has just turned down.
Asia and Europe have not even traded above Wall Street close Tuesday indicating that it was only a technical rally without substance.
17/04/2012
The SWED now
SWED is very close to make a move up to 1.080 area to close a gap. I think the low in the current daily downtrend has been seen at 1.014.53. If SWED can close today above 1.040 the 8 day MA will turn up. Important R point is 1.053.68. A move up to the gap will probably only be a rally and not a trend change. The falling 8 week MA at 1.074 will not allow trading very long at the gap area.
DOW and SP500 have made very small movements in Asia Tuesday
Europe has been trading 30 minutes and everything is calm and slow. Weekly trends are sideways, Daily trends still down but can soon change to sideways. 2 hour trends sideways as well.
DAX, FTSE, SWED and IBEX slowly moves sideways. Feels like the lull before a storm.
EURO, GOLD, OIL and BONDS same lull as the stock indexes.
DAX, FTSE, SWED and IBEX slowly moves sideways. Feels like the lull before a storm.
EURO, GOLD, OIL and BONDS same lull as the stock indexes.
16/04/2012
Bonds, Gold and CRUDE OIL UK
The 10 year note and the German Schatz daily trend is up but is traded sideways for the fifth day and it seems difficult to take new highs.
GOLD has now got a Weekly sellsignal which is a strong warning. 8 week falling MA now at 1.669.27 which is first R point. Now trading at 1.653.
OIL UK has also now got a falling 8 week MA with strong R at 123.49. Now trading 120.01.
GOLD has now got a Weekly sellsignal which is a strong warning. 8 week falling MA now at 1.669.27 which is first R point. Now trading at 1.653.
OIL UK has also now got a falling 8 week MA with strong R at 123.49. Now trading 120.01.
Indexes now
DOW closed Friday at 12.856.5. Monday trading until now between 12.810.5 and 12.903. Daily trend is down, weekly trend is sideways. The 2 hour trend is sideways.
All other indexes trends are down as well and no index has been able to get above the falling 8 days MA. The same small movements as the Dow. Now awaiting US trading open in one hour.
All other indexes trends are down as well and no index has been able to get above the falling 8 days MA. The same small movements as the Dow. Now awaiting US trading open in one hour.
15/04/2012
IBEX 2002 - April 15, 2012. Monthly bar chart. IBEX closed Friday at 7.251.9 and the low in March 2009 is at 6.697.2. There are no support points on the way to this bottom. If the bottom should be broken a very dangerous situation could occur. It is very important to watch IBEX now because of the current crisis in Europe.
DAX 2006 - 15 April 2012. Weekly close.
FTSE 2006 - April 15, 2012. Weekly close
Big picture of DOW weekly close 2006 - April 14, 2012.
13/04/2012
The likelihood of a turnaround of the last few days rally is increasing but the trend is not ready yet. DOW and SP500 are trading between the rising 21 hour MA and the falling 8 hour MA on the hourly chart. I want to see a cross between the MA's and the 21 MA turning down to be sure. The 8 MA can still turn up before crossing and then an other wave up will follow. European indexes have fallen since opening but the trend could still change technically. However IBEX has taken a new low at 7.349.2 with the next S point at 6.819.5. If IBEX should try upside the R point is 7.409.7
DOW and SP500 might have reached rally high
The one hour trend suggests that the powerful rally by DOW and SP500 now may have reached its peak at my R points 13.005.6 and 1.390.11. It is now CET 05:10 and there are signs of a rally top. Europe will open in 4 hours to eventually confirm the beginning of trend change.
12/04/2012
All indexes have accelerated in their 2 hour uptrends
The indexes are in a powerful uptrend that can go higher tonight or tomorrow. The falling 8 days MA gives R so far. The uptrends are mainly built on short covering. Here are the R points for each index.
DOW 12.967.21 and 13.005.6
SP500 1.385.71 and 1.390.12
DAX 6.771.18 and 6.790.40
FTSE 5.736.75 and 5.749
SWED 1.057.43
IBEX 7.570.2
DOW 12.967.21 and 13.005.6
SP500 1.385.71 and 1.390.12
DAX 6.771.18 and 6.790.40
FTSE 5.736.75 and 5.749
SWED 1.057.43
IBEX 7.570.2
All indexes had an upside correction day about 0.70 percent Wednesday after several days of big drops which is quite normal. The daily trends are all down and awaiting Thursdays trading. So far one hour before opening in Europe Thursday only DOW and SP500 have traded in Asia. Both indexes are trying upside now with the 2 hour trends up. SP500 R point is 1.378.42, now trading 1.373.37. Dow seems to target R point at 12.906.5. DAX opened 15 minutes ago on upside with first target R point at 6.708.82. Now trading 6.704. Awaiting Europe opening in 40 minutes.
10/04/2012
Bernanke afraid of bank runs in the US.(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable.
"The risk of runs ... remains a concern, particularly since some of the tools that policymakers employed to stem the runs during the crisis are no longer available," he said
Whole page:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE8380X620120410?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
Whole page:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE8380X620120410?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
DOW closed Monday 12.931.3 and SP500 at 1.381.73.
Technical picture point to a target for Dow at 12.743 area and for SP500 1.357 area. There could be rallies on upside before we move lower to the R I mentioned Saturday. The drop from Thursday to Monday was about 1 % so I expect the European index to fall Tuesday about 1 percent after opening unless something extra ordinary happens in Asia which opens in 30 minutes.
I will come back to all the indexes when the downtrends have stabilized in Europe.
I will come back to all the indexes when the downtrends have stabilized in Europe.
09/04/2012
08/04/2012
07/04/2012
DOW got daily trend down now.
A head and shoulder formation on the 2 hour chart now got a broken neckline signaling a target of 12.746.8. A retest first of the important 13.030.7 is technically possible but not likely with current chart pictures. At 12.731 lies next important S
point.
point.
DOW and SP500 fell sharply Friday to close below the rising 8 MA for the first time since Dec 12, 2011 open the way for a dramatic week April 9.
DOW and SP500 were traded Friday 30 minutes after the release of March job numbers 120.000, about half the gains posted in each of the preceding three months.
DOW closed at 12.919 and SP500 closed at 1.379.92.
This opens the way for a dramatic trading day Monday April 9.
DOW closed at 12.919 and SP500 closed at 1.379.92.
This opens the way for a dramatic trading day Monday April 9.
05/04/2012
SWED before opening Thursday
SWED broke important S at 1.057.43 and closed at 1.040.84 on Wednesday. The index also have a gap at 1.078.95 which should be closed. Thursday S if the trend continues down is at 1.027.73 and R if upside trend starts is at 1.057.43.
IBEX before opening Thursday
IBEX closed Wednesday at 7.654.7 below important support point (S) at 7.738.5.
If the downtrend continues there are S at 7.598 and 7.502. If the trend changes to up I expect a test from below of 7.738.5.
If the downtrend continues there are S at 7.598 and 7.502. If the trend changes to up I expect a test from below of 7.738.5.
DOW, SP500 and FTSE at CET 07.35
DOW's critical support point 13.030.7 was never challenged Wednesday. The close was 13.072.7. In Asia the short trend is now up, currently at 13.085. I expect this uptrend to continue and a possible test om main R at 13.150.7 is possible later today Thursday.
SP500 is also in an hourly uptrend currently at 1.400.37.
FTSE will open CET 09:00. This index moved sideways before close Wednesday which came in at 5.711. FTSE broke very important support point at 5.736.75 and I expect a test of this point from below today Thursday.
SP500 is also in an hourly uptrend currently at 1.400.37.
FTSE will open CET 09:00. This index moved sideways before close Wednesday which came in at 5.711. FTSE broke very important support point at 5.736.75 and I expect a test of this point from below today Thursday.
10 YEAR Treasure note's low was 128.245 set at CET 23.00 Tuesday. A rally has been going on since that to test very very important resistance at 129.085. Remember that the yield goes in the opposite direction. The note has tested the R point during 45 minutes but so far been unable to get above it. take the R.
DAX now
DAX has fallen to a low at 6.878.50. Strong resistance at 6.870.98 and 6.841.56. Now trading 6.900.
SWED now
SWED closed Tuesday at 1.081.58. Opened Wednesday with a huge gap from 1.078.96 to 1.070.42. Low is at 1.059.71. Strong resistance at 1.057.43. Now trading 1.062.
FTSE now
FTSE fell on opening Wednesday to a low at 5.799.5. Now trading 5.809. The top is held down by the falling 8 day MA at 5.809.
The bearish outlook I have is unchanged.
The bearish outlook I have is unchanged.
IBEX now
IBEX broke 2 hr bottom a few minutes before close Tuesday and ended at 7.828.5.
Wednesday opened with a gap at 7.821.8 and took a low at 7.717.8. Now trading sideways at 7.788 trying to close gap. Very strong resistance (R) on close at 7.738.5.
Wednesday opened with a gap at 7.821.8 and took a low at 7.717.8. Now trading sideways at 7.788 trying to close gap. Very strong resistance (R) on close at 7.738.5.
Treasury prices dropped Tuesday, pushing 10-year yields up by the most in three weeks to a high of 2.311 and closing at 2.289.
The daily line chart looks very interesting with an upside three wave move from the rising 21 days MA. It is to early to draw any definite conclusions on this move but it came unexpected since I in yesterdays blog said that i do not believe much to happen before Easter. The rise came with a gap so Wednesdays and Thursdays moves will be very interesting.
When the Treasury prices drop the yield moves higher. The big importance of higher interest rates in current economic environment did I point to in the blog below.
When the Treasury prices drop the yield moves higher. The big importance of higher interest rates in current economic environment did I point to in the blog below.
03/04/2012
The biggest threat to the worlds economy is not growth or high oil prices but rising interest rates. And now the charts are clear. Watch up.
Interest rates reached a peak in the 1980,s above 20 percent and now 30 years later we have had the bottom for the 10 year treasury note yield at 1.676 percent. The technical picture is now clear. We have had the first wave on upside reaching 2.40 and now the second wave which always is down looks to very soon find support in the 2.16 area. Technically the monthly trend is on its way to turn up, the weekly trend is up and I am just waiting for a final upside signal from the daily and hourly charts. I do not expect anything to happen before Easter but immediately after I advice everyone to closely watch the charts, it can take some time so be patient.
A daily close above 2.46 signals that a very long trend on upside has started.This trend up can be very slow in the beginning with a strong resistance in 2.60 area. The important thing is that it has started. Compare the German Schatz futures chart that is the German bond prices, not the yield which move in the opposite direction. The big picture of interest rates in the US and Germany use to move in the same big pattern.
A daily close above 2.46 signals that a very long trend on upside has started.This trend up can be very slow in the beginning with a strong resistance in 2.60 area. The important thing is that it has started. Compare the German Schatz futures chart that is the German bond prices, not the yield which move in the opposite direction. The big picture of interest rates in the US and Germany use to move in the same big pattern.
02/04/2012
Market now
FTSE 1 hour trend is up trying to get above strong resistance at 5.780.4. Next R is 5.799.32
SWED holding below R 1.069.01 and DAX the same at R 6.958.60.
IBEX is building a bottom on 2 hr chart for a possible rally later in 7.900 area.
DOW small movements up and down but 2 hr 21 MA rising and holding now at 13.190.
SP500 support (S) at 8 day rising MA at 1.405. Now trading 1.406.92
SWED holding below R 1.069.01 and DAX the same at R 6.958.60.
IBEX is building a bottom on 2 hr chart for a possible rally later in 7.900 area.
DOW small movements up and down but 2 hr 21 MA rising and holding now at 13.190.
SP500 support (S) at 8 day rising MA at 1.405. Now trading 1.406.92
IBEX now
IBEX is now in a monthly, weekly and daily downtrend. The 2 hour trend is sideways to down. Support is at 7.905.7 and 7.860.3. Now trading 7.941. The 2 hour trend could turn down in a few hours time.
FTSE has a big double bottom and is moving up.
FTSE daily trend is down. The weekly trend is sideways to down but the one and two hour trends are up. I do not know how high the index will go and there are lots of resistance points on the way up. Since FTSE in my opinion is the market leader it is important to follow the index closely so many reports will be published about FTSE's movements. The first two resistance points are 5.805.50 and 5.817.25. Now trading at 7.795
01/04/2012
Analysis: Storm clouds gather over Monti's Italy reform drive
(Reuters) - Storm clouds are gathering over Mario Monti's efforts to transform the Italian economy, with his approval ratings dropping, mounting protests against his reforms and a damaging row with the parties that sustain him in parliament.
Monti shot out of the blocks after being appointed prime minister in November and quickly implemented tough austerity measures to fend off the debt crisis. But he now risks running into political quicksands that will slow down and weaken the much harder task of reviving a notoriously stagnant economy.